The other difference is the agressive marketing strategy of IDOs providers. In fact to be able to participate in IDOs you need to buy and hold their native tokens. Which means that the number of people willing to do so will be reduced. Now when you have a token for sale and a restricted number of people (knowing that theses people have already spent around 500 $ to get in) the price will go up  (yes IDOs token price is not fixed)because of demand increase. Then when the same token get listed in exchanges thus a more important number of people concerned if the project gets ignored then the price will drop. result you would have bought an expansive token during IDO because of big demand and then loos your money once it get listed.

Interesting subject, I was going to create a new thread and then found this one.

So it looks like IDO is the trend theses days with polkastarter, ignition... However you have to buy and hold their token.. 250 POLS for polkastarter and 1000 PAIDS for ignitions. Now as prices are low let's say it's a good option to buy theses token now. One bought you get whitelisted and can apply but you have to be lucky enough to win the lottery. Then depending on the platform you will get a certain allocation. You will then buy the token you want and pray you make money but also pray that the tokens you are holding are will not drop in price. It's a double risk. Another parameter to take into account is that while not yet listed the token price could increase as buyers are limited but once it get listed the price could drop... Too complicated for me I prefer IEOs

Although what are you saying is true, I believe that with time only altcoins with real utility will stay in the market, scams shit coins will disappear meanwhile they will for sure make some lucky people realise gains but I personally prefer to bet on real value tokens. So this analysis I am talking about comes after doing a real deep fundamental analysis to choose project with real utiity. Once that done if I go and buy theses tokens it would be a mistake, because I need to consider two parameters : entry and exit price. For entry price it's quite easy just look to ATH and make a threshold but for exit price and that's when my analysis could be interesting. If you don't look at supply you could say that ADA could reach 10K but if you apply my analysis you would find out that it's impossible because if on ADA = 10k then the capmarket of ada would be 450 trillions dollars bitcoin's market cap is now 900 millions so then you can have at least an idea on what target you could set by comparing like-sized projects.

Well in fact the bear market term is borrowed from stock market however crypto currency has its own rules and I personally don't know what defines a bear market in crypto.  What I do know though that if you look to the chart of bitcoin (and almost all other altcoins have skyrocketed) the price has gone from 10K to 50K this is the biggest increase so far by price volume. Which means that if this correction did not happened the whole crypto market could have crashed very violently. This correction was a bit late in my view and this could be explained by the euphoria around crypto. Now to get the price going up again we do need an important demand, good news  from crypto projects and money pouring in by investors. This will happen but it will take time. I hate feeling the gamble sensation when investing... So far what is happening is logic so let it be. 

In this dip so far BNB has been the most profitable coin.

I had a look at the project I am concerned on how a card can be used by companies when the crypto prices are so volatile?

I do agree with you indeed that this calculation reflects only one side of the price prediction but at least it could give me an indication of an expected return. I don't see crypto as a gambling game where I throw my money randomly on some coins and wait for the hype but maybe I am wrong.

This is more about buying with slots while the market is declining, when a crash happens it does not happen in on hour but it takes time, during the this time you don't know if the price will continue to drop or it will bounce back so to avoid betting on one shot you spread your trades over the declining period....

However I do have a question, could we apply his strategy for selling too? I mean let's say the market started bouncing back, should we sell in slots? example I have 500 tokens. The value of my tokens are now +60%. Should I sell 50 tokens and wait for the market? If it increases more and I am at +120% I sell 50... If it gets +200% I sell 50.. the if it crashes I have already secured 150 tokens for an average gain of +70%. I know that most of you prefer seeing +10000% but to be honest I prefer small gains good liquidity then big risks and big losses....

Hello,

I have been analyzing successful or promising projects recently and I would like to share with you my thoughts and get your opinion.

Let's take for example some successful or promising projects, here I am excluding bitcoin simply because its a coin that outstand all other coins and has its own logic and parameters.

I am taking for example :

Link : Max supply   1B ATH : 43 euro
ADA : Max supply 45B : 2 euro
ETH : Circulating supply : 116.0M ATH:3607 euro (no max supply)
SOLANA  Max supply 488.6M ATH 47 euro

Now when analyzing new projects if we think that the project is good and promising could we estimate the ATH of that project when it matures by assigning it to one of theses intervals, I mean if this project has a max supply of 45B which is huge could we says that we estimate its ATH to be between 2 and 5  like ADA? In the other hand it it has only 1B max supply could we predict its ATH to be around 43 euros like Link? Does this make sense as an analysis? Am I missing some parameters? 
Matic is ~ 1/4 ADA's max supply = 1B but it did hit already 2.14 euros ATH!! is this saying that my analysis is wrong or is it because ADA is still not delivering? 

But Matic depends tightly on Ethereum it has been built to make Ethereum scalable. Even though they explained in their white paper that they can also scale other blockchains like polkadot or ADA in reality those recent blockchains (polkadot, ADA... ) don't need polygon they are already scalable and interoperable with other blockchains...  Polygon is trying to resolve an old Ethereum issue that new blockchain promise to deliver, the only difference is that polygon has already done it and it's used and other are just promising or testing so I think we should follow closely how this will evolve...

Why ETH 2.0 would need polygon once it switches to 100% POS? I was thinking that by doing so Ethereum2.0 will enhance scalability and decrease fees and therefore there is a risk that polygon will loose its utility... I am a polygon holder by the way but I want to understand the future of polygon... Are you sure Ethereum has chosen polygon as a layer2 instead of its own?

That's the dark part of this project as per their latest token economics paper before moving from matic to polygon 80% of tokens are team, founders and network related. They did not update that paper since and there are questions on network sustainability once token supply stops.

I have been following this project for a while, what is really impressive is that it's developed by a small bunch of developers with good advisory board and a small funding. It's true that Polygon is just a protocol to connect Ethereum with other blockchains while some would argue that other big projects are promising full interoperability and lot of other services.
However this project is concise but do deliver a product that works and has already a number of customers using it. ConSensys has already partnered with Polygon so this is delivering from both technical and business sides. 

I did not say it was special I was just clarifying that they did not try to enable smart contract before, their roadmap progress is quite slow and they explain that by making sure that the network is scalable, decentralized and fees are not high. Being a leader-based POS like EOS some could argue that Cardano is not 100% decentralized but this comes with advantages, speed and low fees. Once the platform is running DApps we will see if the low fees will attract application developers. I am not saying that Cardano is special or better then other blockchains though however I do think it's worth it to follow their development.   

You don't have to make a single choice as when to buy, the best strategy is to spend small amounts and spread the trades, for instance if you buy every week for 100$ while the market is crashing you can make sure that you are not putting all your money on one go... 

I can see that the roadmap is almost done how come this is not reflected on the token price?

ADA is enabling smart contracts in June this year, the testnet has already started, they never tried before as they were in another era of the roadmap focused on decentralization.

I have seen many dAapps focused blockchains using two tokens one for accessing the blockchain and one for using it, this is to have more control on fees without bothering about the main token price... How is this handled by ETH? If ether reaches 10K will this mean that fees on the network will also increase?

Bitcoin accounts for 46% of the whole crypto market cap, as long as other crypto will increase their market cap we could either se a decorrelation between bitcoin and some altcoins or the correlation of return could be reinforced if bitcoin is chosen as a refuge asset.

I think ADA will be the next Altcoin to shine in the cryptocurrency market, technically the project is solid plus as an asset ADA is one of the most stable coins it never goes up or down violently so it's a long term investment. The only challenging point in Cardano is the market supply which is huge. I guess this has been set as the project is also huge.