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Showing 20 of 83 results by intighet
yeah this is strange but happens to me too.Each time I sell my bitcoins later I see some rise in price and I always think would have good to wait for little more.Why price goes up always after selling.
This is because an efficient market always moves to minimize profits. In this way, it can be understood as a crowd-sourced, adversarial intelligence.
Thus, in fact, even beyond confirmation bias, it is theoretically more likely than a coin-flip for the market to punish informed, strategic speculative actions, especially on the short term.
if bitcoin was going to drop, it would have been dropped when it reached the 156 lowest spike, not certainly now when it is rising
This is not strictly true. It is a law of markets that higher price are more attractive to sellers.
I'll chime in on this one, if you don't mind...
oda.krell,
You come off as a seasoned trader and additionally a person who has wonderfully fine intuition about markets. So good that you have come to conclusions that I have only come across after much mathematics!
I would also like to chime in. I do not mean to seem like oda.krell's biggest fan, but their posts are some of the few substantive enough to revert out of lurker-mode!
Markets, like weather and other complex dynamic systems, are computed locally. The stochastic nature does not come from any inherent probabilistic mechanism - there is no man behind the curtain flipping coins - but rather from the emergence of many computations of individual players at any given time.
Most traders here would agree that profits are possible, that the E.M.H. is not strictly correct. That said, there are times when the market seems more predictable than others. 'Decision points', as you call them, are the times when the market is least predictable, when the equilibrium valuation requires calculated input from the maximum number of traders, and the least number of traders are 'cheating' < -- see the brief evolutionary game theory analogy in oda.krell's other thread.
Re: Two semi-random thoughts on the market and our predictions on it
Two thoughts recently formed in my mind, nothing very coherent yet perhaps, but thought I'd share it anyway, see what your responses are...
This cycle brings to mind the effect of cheaters in an established game-theoretic framework.
As example, in evolutionary game theory the mimic appears like the poisonous in order to reap the same benefits without bearing the cost of developing or cultivating a poison. This is frequency-dependent, and is limited by the number of cheaters. Once too many, the predators' odds of being poisoned by any one appearing insect begin to dwindle and the strategy loses effectiveness. This self-limiting feedback loop drives a sort of resonance in the numbers. Your intuition has grasped this same pattern, driven by the same mechanism, in the Bitcoin price.
Seem to be some doubters that you can have a chart pattern on a sloping line. So what is so special about horizontal ? Only a totally flat un-trending market can have chart patterns ? Chart patterns can play out on any slope.
This may be true, but pareidolia makes for very poor traders.
This is what often irritates me about EW. There is always an alternate count. What would it take for everyone to agree that the 13 January low of $152 on Bitstamp completed the ABC correction and we are set now for a fresh cycle to begin: five waves up making new highs perhaps in 2016?
This can never happen because markets are anti- inductive.
Price is demonstrably not a random walk. This implies that there exists some TA that yields results.
For example, one of the best-studied deviations from a random walk is the phenomenon of 'drift', or trending behavior.
For example, one of the best-studied deviations from a random walk is the phenomenon of 'drift', or trending behavior.
Many here assumed I was "forecasting" upwards action. I have done no such thing. The title of this thread refers to the hypothetical breach of $300.
With recent price action in mind, I must also warn that the repellor implies that the further we move downwards from the resistance at $300, that much less likely we shall see prices above that level.
With recent price action in mind, I must also warn that the repellor implies that the further we move downwards from the resistance at $300, that much less likely we shall see prices above that level.
But for some reason, they aren't bullish now, and instead looking for wave V again? This makes no sense to me.
Is there something about Elliotwavers that makes them so bearish all the time? I remember looking at Robert Prechter's counts of Gold in the early to mid 200s, when he just stubbornly kept looking for a wave V down to $200 an oz, even while Gold kept rising and rising.
It is interesting that you have detected this bias. I think that you have picked up on a particular bias that the use of Elliot Waves suffers greatly, that is selection bias. I avoid the models for this reason, but certainly not because they are inherently biased, in fact I consider fractal models of the price as the closest species to accessing the actual underpinning mechanisms of price fluctuation.
I have recently explored much Number Theory which suggests that the complexity of the price graph is intrinsically similar to the complexity in, as instance, the Julia Set. I am far from any formulations of proof, but I am excited that this work may some day lead to a vindication of Elliot Waves in the absence of any other empirical verifications. It seems to me that much of quantitative finance is lacking in these approaches.
I believe that the ask wall on bitstamp at $300 (now around 4500 btc) that can be graphically viewed at http://bitcointicker.co/ represents the major repellor i.e. the "long-term" trend.
If we can break through this with even volume and the above conjecture is correct, we may not see prices below $300 for at least an entire wave cycle. (scale of months)
Thoughts on this are welcome.
If we can break through this with even volume and the above conjecture is correct, we may not see prices below $300 for at least an entire wave cycle. (scale of months)
Thoughts on this are welcome.
Bifurcation Point (image)
Little bearish consolidation, and I think that we will see some movement with volume soon.
What do you think?
Little bearish consolidation, and I think that we will see some movement with volume soon.
What do you think?
yes, it's about time-scales, not "couple years" but this year or this quarter, years are too many for internet things including bitcoin
So you would rather Bitcoin double in value every week?
You are lying, holding bitcoin is the worst investment you can make in 2014, maybe in 2015 too, sell your get rich quick dream to some one new but not at here
Bought at $275 a month ago, now up 27% to $350. "Worst investment you can make in 2014".
are you pretending to be a stupid person or just trying to troll? do you know what "holding" means? are you that proud of day trading?
He may have been trolling, but he makes the same point as I did, ironically. It's about time-scales.
It seems not a good return, 100 coins to make 0.2 coins per day... if you use those coins to buy miners, only 40 coins could make you 0.2 coins per day
But those 40 BTC are then gone, and may never see ROI let alone any profit. The 100BTC (if he's a holder anyway) are better working for him than sitting in some dumb safe wallet.
Not any bigger than the platform being "hacked"
Trying to invest in bitcoin and get more bitcoin back is quite old way of thinking, "investing" only applies to fiat money since fiat money lose value by itself thus you are forced to invest. For bitcoin hodling is the best investing method and almost risk free
You are lying, holding bitcoin is the worst investment you can make in 2014, maybe in 2015 too, sell your get rich quick dream to some one new but not at here
You are new around here, and for that I am sorry.
2014 is certainly a strange year for Bitcoin, compared to the past. You have cherry-picked your interval. Simply zoom out and see that, since 01 Jan 2013, Bitcoin has made gains over 2,000%! Those kinds of returns are unheard-of in any other market. The fact that you have only recently started paying attention to the price desensitizes you to how colossal the gains have been at 300 BTCUSD.
No one's talking about getting rich quick in terms of holding versus investing. Most bitcoiners clearly do not have the patience for a normal investment timeframe. If you invest, treat it like a stock. Purchase, put it away in a portfolio, and come back only after a couple of years at least.
Bitcoin, say it ain't so!
It ain't the first time, and it won't be the last.
What time frame are you referring to, anyway?
I was watching Bitfinex. She went red for a bit there, but I think I talked her out of it
3d scale
after an uninspirig sideways action the count is becoming consistent with the wave v count. we have evidence to believe we are in a triangle right now, this should play out in a day or two. Triangles are always terminal moves!, this is a hard rule, means we are close tothe bottom if this plays out a triangle. There are limits how far this can go so we may be offered a clear cut leading buy signal in the coming days.
If it is wave v, does this mean no 2xx? I was quite looking forward to it, even had some fiat ready to buy.
Sorry, this is a confusing thing you must learn about ew. there are many fractal degrees we must deal with. there may be wave ((v)), wave (v), wave v, wave (V) and wave V wave 5 etc..... we will still probably get a wave V to 2xx, but this is wave (v) of (c) of (B) of IV. Wave C will take us up to 4xx.
chessnut, may I make a couple of suggestions?
If we are in (iv), then also show the (iii) extreme (and labeled). This is the easiest way to orient the viewer to your pic. Anyone who is/has been following, will have an idea of the larger count, so this will make it easy to see where you are pointing and what you are trying to convey.
Occasionally, show a zoomed out larger image of the over all count you are working with. This will remind people of the larger waves of which you are breaking down the sub-waves for. Now, I don't mean an all-time count, but if we are in iv of C of (B), then show the whole C including the B extreme/label. Or even (when reasonable) the whole correction/impulse up until now. This will also help others to see as it unfolds and grasp the concept of EW. The followers will continue following when they aren't confused
Now back to your regularly scheduled program..
+1 Would make it much easier to follow.
Re: Do Fractals Repeat? A Bitcoin Weekly Preview | Bitstamp Btce Huobi OKCoin Kraken
Although beautiful, fractals found in nature have nothing to do with chart fractals.
The market is a natural system. Supply and demand are as old as the hills and can be simplified to a science, economics. Forces of the market act to restore equilibrium, it is the model of a simple sine wave. Because of interference, when external forces apply change to the market new waves must superimpose themselves in simple natural ratios of each other and expand into fibonacci ratios in complex systems. Just as every note on the piano is derived from a single pitch and the ratios 1/2 and 2/3. How can the market then behave naturally without fractals when there are practically an infinite amount of large and small forces at work within it?
The waves that roll up on the beach in cycles of seven at a precise interval are the result of a random system. every ripple cause by the gusty winds of a pressure system superimpose to form enormous wave. you cant predict the ripple, you can predict the wave but they are one and the same thing.
the grand average size of retracements in the dow jones calculated from opening price, closing price and average price is equal to 0.618. thats all retracements, great and small.
What you have just written is 100% bullshit.
You are wrong. The underlying commonality between beach waves and price graph is stochasticity. By your other comments it is clear you know little about this. I suggest that you research.
Re: [Cryptostock] Bitcoin Algorithmic Trading Fund IPO (pre-IPO, interest gathering)
Hello,
We do not except everyone to agree with our business model. After all, satoshi himself faced extensive skepticism after launching bitcoin in 2009. If you recall, everyone on the mailing list denounced him after his posted the initial bitcoin prototype.
Unfortunately, I come from a background of experience in the wider public markets and I can affirm that there are companies running this exact same business model in public markets, and making high profits. You may not like it as an individual trader, but our company seeks to exploit the bitcoin market for the benefit of our investors. We work and act for our investors alone.
Finally, our model is short term. It does not seek to change over the long run the value of bitcoin, and will be profitable in bear or bull markets. It incorporates elements that are common to publicly listed algorithmic trading funds. We do not have an opinion on the bitcoin price or the direction of bitcoin. The only prerequisite is sufficient liquidity to allow profit of our algorithm, and we have already determined that exists on 2 of the existing exchanges.
I'm out of time to fully respond to this reply right now, but I'll aim to post more information about the fund and algorithm. I understand some investors may be skeptical given past scams and frauds etc. That's not a problem, but we are fully legitimate as our follow up postings will show.
We do not except everyone to agree with our business model. After all, satoshi himself faced extensive skepticism after launching bitcoin in 2009. If you recall, everyone on the mailing list denounced him after his posted the initial bitcoin prototype.
Unfortunately, I come from a background of experience in the wider public markets and I can affirm that there are companies running this exact same business model in public markets, and making high profits. You may not like it as an individual trader, but our company seeks to exploit the bitcoin market for the benefit of our investors. We work and act for our investors alone.
Finally, our model is short term. It does not seek to change over the long run the value of bitcoin, and will be profitable in bear or bull markets. It incorporates elements that are common to publicly listed algorithmic trading funds. We do not have an opinion on the bitcoin price or the direction of bitcoin. The only prerequisite is sufficient liquidity to allow profit of our algorithm, and we have already determined that exists on 2 of the existing exchanges.
I'm out of time to fully respond to this reply right now, but I'll aim to post more information about the fund and algorithm. I understand some investors may be skeptical given past scams and frauds etc. That's not a problem, but we are fully legitimate as our follow up postings will show.
And now this is beginning to sound like a scam.
Re: [JUPITER] Bitcoin Algorithmic Trading Fund IPO (pre-IPO, interest gathering)
Secondly, I believe your comment "You don't really seem to have a strong grasp of the BTC market." is without evidence. If you'd like to follow that statement with evidence, I'd be happy to answer it.
This thread has got to be a joke.
Let's take a look at your "business plan":
(1) Place a Market Sell Order (MSO) over a pre-determined size limit, pre-determined using the Trading Algorithm (TA) proprietary to The Company
(2) A pre-calculated drop in the bitcoin price is created
(2) A pre-calculated drop in the bitcoin price is created
You cannot, in any feasible manner, by machine-learning trading-algorithm or otherwise, guarantee that this will happen. Further, regarding the data set which you trained this algorithm on, how did you determine the difference between natural price movements which simply followed another large trade rather than those that were caused by them? You cannot deduce this kind of causal relationship from market data alone.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy.
This is a joke, and even more of one if you sincerely believe that this is a sound or effective strategy.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Certainly a neat moment for fractal-spotting!
Check out the past 4 - 8 periods on the 1-week candlestick versus the 4-hour candlestick chart on BitcoinWisdom.
It always tickles my mind
Check out the past 4 - 8 periods on the 1-week candlestick versus the 4-hour candlestick chart on BitcoinWisdom.
It always tickles my mind