Re: Plateau move or Phase Transition followed by crypto winter?
Re: This won't end well
The 2nd one has the highest probability right now.
The 3rd one has the highest probability after we hit the $40k peak.
The last (4th) one will occur during the 3rd one, and will also include a blood bath for non-compliant ICOs and a SegWit theft wherein the blockchain steals $billions of Bitcoin pay to anyone donations.
Four scenarios and their probabilities for me:
- No correction. (10-20%)
- Correction, but hype hasn't ended: 19.xxx -> >10.000 -> to tha moon (40K?). (20-30%)
- Deep correction/crash with panic and "people trapped inside the blockchain", followed by a real bear market: -> down to ~2.000-3.000 , stabilizing at about $5.000 (30-40%)
- Bitfinex/Tether conspiracy theory is true: -> down to $1000 or below. (10-20%)
- No correction. (10-20%)
- Correction, but hype hasn't ended: 19.xxx -> >10.000 -> to tha moon (40K?). (20-30%)
- Deep correction/crash with panic and "people trapped inside the blockchain", followed by a real bear market: -> down to ~2.000-3.000 , stabilizing at about $5.000 (30-40%)
- Bitfinex/Tether conspiracy theory is true: -> down to $1000 or below. (10-20%)
The 2nd one has the highest probability right now.
The 3rd one has the highest probability after we hit the $40k peak.
The last (4th) one will occur during the 3rd one, and will also include a blood bath for non-compliant ICOs and a SegWit theft wherein the blockchain steals $billions of Bitcoin pay to anyone donations.
You're way overanalyzing the bitcoin move [
] I'd say that's already occurred in bitcoin for this wave.
Indeed I think BTC already topped out (or will next week as the move from $11k to $16k may have only be one leg of two legs up) at $18k $25k1 then will U bottom for a couple or few months and then skyrocket again to $40k (ditto as in 2013). Then a 67% decline back to < $15k.
Perhaps the altcoins will moon now during the interim lull (usually happens when BTC pauses), as LTC did in 2013 after the first BTC peak.
1 Average pricing including Asian exchanges which are higher as quoted on Coinmarketcap, Shapeshift, and others
And you think things like transaction fees and load capacity have zero effect on that? That price just magically always increases in a 45 degree line? You're trying to apply Metcalfe's law to something that's already virtually topped out in terms of load capacity. I mean, Hall Finney already said bitcoin is useless except as a settlement network years ago. For something like Metcalfe's law to apply when it's a settlement layer, it means govts would have to adopt the thing as the world reserve currency, otherwise it's not exactly having any interaction at all with most of the world's inhabitants.
The transaction volume layer doesnt need to be on the Bitcoin blockchain nor necessarily even offchain! And yes Bitcoin will be the NWO reserve currency as designed by the Zionists who control it.
Youre going to miss out on $1 million per BTC in 2026 with your silly tinfoil hat precious metals delusion.
Those mumbling at TMSR (trilema.com) represent millions of BTC.
It actually doesnt matter who is running their client now. What matters is that millions of BTC believes Bitcoin has no value if it can be mutated, because the smart people understand that Bitcoin is more valuable as a reserve currency of the wealthy, because the wealthy matter and the masses (sheep to be harvested) do not (in a paradigm that is not decentralized, which proof-of-work can never be!). That is just economics. Even Trump understands it:
However, the bigger fish eat the little fish paradigm doesnt scale to only one big fish that ate everything (this is why the Zionists ultimately fail), i.e. even though wealth is power-law distributed, still 50% remains with the minnows (but they cant organize themselves politically and thus precisely why we need true decentralization). Thus I still continue working on my altcoin protocol.
It actually doesnt matter who is running their client now. What matters is that millions of BTC believes Bitcoin has no value if it can be mutated, because the smart people understand that Bitcoin is more valuable as a reserve currency of the wealthy, because the wealthy matter and the masses (sheep to be harvested) do not (in a paradigm that is not decentralized, which proof-of-work can never be!). That is just economics. Even Trump understands it:
Most importantly, a big tax cut (from 35% to 20%) is planned for the corporations which will make the U.S. society richer, especially in the long run. Companies are the places that can use extra cash most effectively partially as an investment allocated by some of America's best managers which is why the lowering of their taxes is the best investment for the whole. Everyone who fails to get this simple point of trickle-down or supply side economics is just an economics (and history) crackpot. Try to cover it by your left-wing beliefs or anything else but it's actually crackpottery that is behind it.
However, the bigger fish eat the little fish paradigm doesnt scale to only one big fish that ate everything (this is why the Zionists ultimately fail), i.e. even though wealth is power-law distributed, still 50% remains with the minnows (but they cant organize themselves politically and thus precisely why we need true decentralization). Thus I still continue working on my altcoin protocol.
I will need to study the technological security of those instant offchain cross chain swaps. I expect to find security weakness of the sort of game theory attacks I mentioned about Mt. Box settlement spikes on chain. In any case, any altcoin which enables Lightning Network (LN) is going to subject to the threat of volume spikes due to Mt. Box. If an altcoin is not threatened by that (because it can handle nearly any volume such as the design I am working on), then it doesnt need LN any way!
Yes altcoins can already do transactions much cheaper than Bitcoin and that doesnt matter. Bitcoins transaction volume demand will always continue to increase because BTC is the reserve currency of crypto and so everyone wants to bank their profits in their unit-of-account which is BTC.
Bitcoins transaction market share will drop precipitously, but its share of the economic pie of crypto will remain very significant and grow because of the reason I stated. BTC miners/whales do not care about transaction volume, they care about value of the transactions and thus the amount of fees that those whose transacts fit within 1MB block size can afford to pay. For example, when every BTC transaction is $10 million, then a $5000 fee per transaction will not be a problem.
Yes altcoins can already do transactions much cheaper than Bitcoin and that doesnt matter. Bitcoins transaction volume demand will always continue to increase because BTC is the reserve currency of crypto and so everyone wants to bank their profits in their unit-of-account which is BTC.
Bitcoins transaction market share will drop precipitously, but its share of the economic pie of crypto will remain very significant and grow because of the reason I stated. BTC miners/whales do not care about transaction volume, they care about value of the transactions and thus the amount of fees that those whose transacts fit within 1MB block size can afford to pay. For example, when every BTC transaction is $10 million, then a $5000 fee per transaction will not be a problem.
The log target is $100k just sayin.. give it a month or so.
Show me a chart that has that target projection drawn on it.
The adoption rate has to slow in percentage terms. Oak tree seeds grow to saplings quickly rapidly, but not to the moon.
Although I can say that that slowing can be accounted for significantly in the longer duration of the U-bottom from 2013 2018 as compared to 2011 2013. So its not entirely implausible. Peak-to-peak appears to project less than $100k though.
He better prepare some hot sauce. No way BTC hits $1 million by 2020.
The more likely time frame for BTC to reach $1 million is 2024 2026.
I also think BTC might go to $7000 - $8000 (maybe even higher) in next weeks or months (before any crypto winter).
2x will die and BCH will also go very high.
2x will die and BCH will also go very high.
"Crypto winter is coming again ..."
Different times, the past has nothing to do with the future
Different times, the past has nothing to do with the future
Im documenting in this thread all of you stating: its different this time and the widespread, centralized failure of Mt. Gox can never be repeated in any form.
Just like I documented in March and April everyone stating that LTCs move from $4 to $6 was nothing and it would drop back down again. Then it went to $85.
Just like how I recently documented in the BCH bleeding death" thread and the thread "people think that Bitcoin Cash can disappear", how everyone thinks BCH is dying (and scorn it the same as they did for LTC), and lets observe if it rises to $1000 or $1500.
Something very widespread and sinister is brewing, but it may take us higher and deeper first before it reveals itself.
Given the timing is so uncertain, it's possible that BCH could decline significantly before it catapults. In my theory, the protagonists would want BCH to be sold off and cheap as possible before beginning their SegWit attack. However, if SegWit2x fails (not the attack) as I expect in November, BCH and LTC (with its larger blocks and SegWit) may be the beneficiary for big blockers. So perhaps we get another spike upwards for BCH and LTC (i.e. SegWit not destroyed yet, so 8MB blocks on BCH and 2MB blocks and SegWit on LTC), then perhaps some long drawn out decline before the massive SegWit attack, BCH skyrocketing, and then the crypto winter. There are many possible scenarios.
Seems we are likely to get the battle over larger blocks before the battle over the viability of SegWit. The SegWit attack probably won't occur in 2017.
Given the timing is so uncertain, it's possible that BCH could decline significantly before it catapults. In my theory, the protagonists would want BCH to be sold off and cheap as possible before beginning their SegWit attack. However, if SegWit2x fails (not the attack) as I expect in November, BCH and LTC (with its larger blocks and SegWit) may be the beneficiary for big blockers. So perhaps we get another spike upwards for BCH and LTC (i.e. SegWit not destroyed yet, so 8MB blocks on BCH and 2MB blocks and SegWit on LTC), then perhaps some long drawn out decline before the massive SegWit attack, BCH skyrocketing, and then the crypto winter. There are many possible scenarios.
Seems we are likely to get the battle over larger blocks before the battle over the viability of SegWit. The SegWit attack probably won't occur in 2017.
Were obviously in a phase transition right now, and the big money is starting to notice. But how long will this phase transition go on before it reaches nosebleed and needs to take dive? $8000 - $10,000 within a month? Then well get some exhale (not dive) into altcoins because of the risk of the 2x fork in November (and my bets are still on LTC and BCH for the reasons I already explained because I expect 2X to fail to be adopted). Then $25,000 by Q1 2018? That would take us to ~$0.5 trillion market cap (perhaps $1 trillion overall including all altcoins), which would presumably set the gears into motion to insure the institutional players want in. And will the catalyst for any subsequent dive be dire (e.g. the SegWit attack I posited) and create a winter? Will the big money get the custodian insurance they need in time to come in and support this phase transition before any such crypto winter?
And whether SegWit, Lightning Networks, and ICOs (i.e. the current paradigms that the current phase transition are hinged on) are the paradigms that will take us to this future?
It seems the vehicles are being created to allow more speculative players into the market, but afaics the institutional players will not be able to buy into this bubble within the next few months:
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And whether SegWit, Lightning Networks, and ICOs (i.e. the current paradigms that the current phase transition are hinged on) are the paradigms that will take us to this future?
It seems the vehicles are being created to allow more speculative players into the market, but afaics the institutional players will not be able to buy into this bubble within the next few months:
[ ]
Thus expect overshoots and massive waste as the free market takes money from fools and routes that money to those who can best allocate it for optimum production.
The governments may try to step in to stop the massive waste of selling empty speculation bags to greater fools (no crypto projects have any appreciable real world use/adoption except maybe Bitcoin and Steem) and take their cut of the pie as the cost of our inability to organize ourselves without massive waste. Yet decentralization trumps centralization (eventually and more readily in this era of the Internet) and so some projects are going to figure out a way to allocate capital better than the government privilege+monopolistic-theft model, and these paradigms will steal (i.e. reallocate) it all back away from the corrupted retards in government (and those who ride the governments coattails who implicitly corrupted because they choose to comply and take the Mark of the Beast instead of coming out of the Great Harlot, thus by their complicity they perpetuate the corruption) and into massive decentralized production.
And so yeah, expect theft and concomitant corrections along the way as the free market annealing mechanism plays out and we astute developers bring decentralization to the real world adoption.
The governments may try to step in to stop the massive waste of selling empty speculation bags to greater fools (no crypto projects have any appreciable real world use/adoption except maybe Bitcoin and Steem) and take their cut of the pie as the cost of our inability to organize ourselves without massive waste. Yet decentralization trumps centralization (eventually and more readily in this era of the Internet) and so some projects are going to figure out a way to allocate capital better than the government privilege+monopolistic-theft model, and these paradigms will steal (i.e. reallocate) it all back away from the corrupted retards in government (and those who ride the governments coattails who implicitly corrupted because they choose to comply and take the Mark of the Beast instead of coming out of the Great Harlot, thus by their complicity they perpetuate the corruption) and into massive decentralized production.
And so yeah, expect theft and concomitant corrections along the way as the free market annealing mechanism plays out and we astute developers bring decentralization to the real world adoption.
I am employing http://cryptowat.ch to view the charts. On a 1D (1 day) chart, LTCUSD is still in a bullish trend. LTCBTC appears to be finding a spike down, V bottom somewhere in the 0.0070s. Should rocket up again. Extremes have to reached first. I still think $100 and $150 are potentially realistic targets during this current period (over next couple of months or so). Of course, nothing is certain, just talking probabilities. If LTCBTC breaks below 0.0059, that could signal the end of the bullish trend, especially if LTCUSD has also broken down from its trend (just view the LTCUSD chart, the trend slope is obvious). We were expecting LTCBTC to reach 0.03 before this bullish trend ends (and possibly 0.05 on some insane moonshot spike), so if that holds then at $150 [
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I think this is impossible.
It can never happen is the attitude we need for it to happen.
Nevertheless it is quite plausible that after a minor correction from $8 - 10k down to maybe $5 - 6k, then we could get another move up in Q1 2018. The bubble could possibly run much further and become much more extreme, maybe even continuing on throughout 2018. Or not.
I am thinking an exhale into altcoins may be coming after Nov. 15 or 25th, similar to August.
Grandmothers holding the 90+% of ICO tokens which will go to zero is something I am keeping my eye on.
All of Hyperme.shs predictions above came true or soon will.