Quote from: dragonvslinux on November 01, 2019, 07:09:04 PM

Quote from: exstasie on November 01, 2019, 06:37:06 PM

Why so bearish?

Mainly because my bearish calls for the past two months have been more than accurate enough to make good money, so no point changing that in a hurry.

Most bears selling for the past month or so are sitting on huge losses now. Their losses and underwater shorts are actually the fuel for the next move up.

We downtrended for 4 months and just retraced half the losses in a few days. Maybe you aren't in a hurry, but I'm curious, what are you waiting for exactly before losing your bearish bias? $14K? Watching the market nearly double from the bottom seems like a long time to wait.

I've been trading for nearly a decade. The single biggest reversal signal you will ever see in a market is Wyckoff spring / headfake action like we saw last week. It's not to be ignored.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on November 01, 2019, 07:09:04 PM

Not to mention the lower highs and lower lows pattern since July, especially on the monthly.

That's exactly how most pullbacks look: a downtrend within a larger uptrend. How do you distinguish between primary and counter trend?

Quote from: dragonvslinux on November 01, 2019, 07:09:04 PM

Like the bull pennant of 2018

This one?

That wasn't a bull pennant. Not even close. Bull pennants are short term consolidations proportionally, and they don't begin with 70% declines. That's why the comparisons to 2018 don't fit.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on November 01, 2019, 07:09:04 PM

or the one we already had in 2019?

You mean the pennant breakdown that was fully retraced last week? I'm not too worried about shaking the trees a bit more. That's exactly what happens in the early goings of an uptrend.

That move was not unexpected either:

Quote from: exstasie on September 24, 2019, 08:05:01 AM

Quote from: soxxx on September 24, 2019, 06:13:21 AM

Still feeling bullish about this triangle. Grin

Same. Just watch out for a classic head-hake first. Shorts are rising but still unimpressive, and longs keep piling on. Bulls don't seem ready to break out either. I wouldn't be surprised to see a shakeout like this first before snapping back up like a rubber band:

http://thepatternsite.com/st.html

I'll tell you two things I've learned about fractal analysis over the years:
1) It does more harm than good because fractals strongly reinforce biases.
2) When you see two fractals on the same chart, they usually play out opposite. Perhaps to do with sentiment/trader expectations.

Recency bias means that everyone is looking at the July-October pennant breakdown and expecting the same fractal to play out again. It probably won't.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on November 01, 2019, 07:09:04 PM

I'm always happy to be proved wrong (as is my hodl position), but I otherwise won't be adding to it for sometime by the looks of things.

I'm honestly really glad you and so many others are still bearish. If everyone was bullish, we wouldn't go up.