Quote from: paxmao on October 08, 2022, 08:27:25 PM

...In a nuclear war there is no winner. The first strike is guaranteed to be followed by a response (it could even not be a nuke, but certainly proportional and devastating)... and from there nobody knows...

Can we stop pretending that instead of protecting its members NATO countries signed up to start a nuclear Armageddon for any tactical nuclear blast in any country around the globe? I realize that that's what UA has been desperately asking for but literally no NATO general or leader of ANY NATO country agreed to anything close to that. That's not how article 5 works

RU nuke attack in UA != RU nuke attack on NATO

Quote from: suchmoon on October 08, 2022, 08:36:03 PM

Quote from: DaRude on October 08, 2022, 07:57:15 PM

everyone knows what happens if US/EU escalates and sends tanks to UA.

What happens is that Russians start retreating. 200+ tanks have already been sent from the EU and NATO to Ukraine so it's not a hypothetical question like you're trying to make it sound.

It would be very helpful if you'd educate yourself on a subject before commenting. Or you should let Z know that they need to stop asking for tanks as their highest priority

Quote

As Ukraine pleads for tanks, the West holds back
...
Ukraine is asking urgently for modern tanks to help their forces seize on rapid gains in the northeast and take additional territory, but the West is dragging its feet
...
The tanks have shot to the top of Kyiv’s wish list
...
The request took on new urgency this week after Vladimir Putin announced that he would mobilize 300,000 additional troops for the fight in Ukraine, a major escalation of the campaign.
...
The more modern American-made M-1 Abrams and German-made Leopard tanks would add a powerful punch that could help Kyiv’s forces capture and hold more ground, compared to the old Soviet-era tanks they currently operate, say experts and Ukrainian advisers
...
But Germany has repeatedly rejected Ukraine’s request for the tanks
...
“It’s top of their list now, it didn’t used to be,” said one congressional staffer familiar with the request
...
One adviser to the Ukrainian government said “the Ukrainians definitely want the Leopards” and have been frustrated that Germany has denied the permits to Spain and other countries that were willing to donate them
...
German defense company Rheinmetall also requested government approval to export 88 Leopard tanks to Ukraine, but Berlin refused to grant permission.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/22/ukraine-requests-american-tanks-counteroffensive-00058303

Quote from: suchmoon on October 08, 2022, 08:36:03 PM

Quote from: DaRude on October 08, 2022, 07:57:15 PM

This means that support for Ukraine is being dropped and deescalation can finally begin.

Putin can deescalate any time he wants. Until then nothing is being dropped.

Sure, technically he can also decide just to gift Crimea to UA again on Z's birthday, and many other things, by why would he? I understand that propaganda would like everyone to think that RU can just turn around, drink some tea at home and everything goes back to normal, but everyone realizes that backing out would mean dissolution of RU as we know it, there is no off ramp for Russia on this. That's why mobilization and talks about nukes, that's what an existential threat means, RU has no choice but stand till the end on this one way or the other), hypothetically even if for some reason Putin goes mad and decides just to say sorry and turn the troops around, as was discussed previously, chances are there would be a military coup and a military general or a communist take over. The illusion that there's some opposition in Russia that is anti-war, green, liberal, and EU loving second in line waiting to jump in, is just that, an illusion. Now Biden on the other hand, can deescalate any time he wants (lack of new significant military commitments is an indication to me that he already started)

Quote from: suchmoon on October 08, 2022, 08:36:03 PM

Quote from: DaRude on October 08, 2022, 07:57:15 PM

Of course this is not good for UA government and they're well aware of this, ironically the only way out of this for them at this stage is a full nuke stand off

Funny how you kremlinists fantasize about nukes and yet are looking for ways to blame the other side for it. Just admit it that the conventional war is lost and get out of there while you can still save your country. Nuking Ukraine (and Russia in the process) is not going to win the war.

RU is just going through it's first partial mobilization but sure i have no problem admitting that RU's regular military force was not enough to counter all of NATO's military equipment that's depleting US & EU stock with pretty much fully mobilized Ukraine

Quote from: suchmoon on October 08, 2022, 08:36:03 PM

Quote from: DaRude on October 08, 2022, 07:57:15 PM

This symbolism of blowing up a bridge with an VBIED supposedly on Putins birthday feels like a desperate last ditch attempt to get RU to react, but looks like cooler heads are prevailing. It happened around 6am so appears that caution was taken to limit civilian casualties, this gives me hope that there won't be any mass scale IEDs on Russia to really push for a reply.

Blowing up Russian supply lines is an important ongoing project for Ukrainian military and unlikely to have anything to do with desperation or some nuclear fantasies. But there is no Biden speech and no tweets from Polish politicians on the subject so your standards of proof are slipping. Are you sure the truck wasn't carrying sugar from Ryazan?

We seem to be in between the denial and anger stages now. As things get more desperate for UA their attack will completely stall before reversing withing a month or so. We'll enter the anger stage with more pointless attacks inside RU and more and more radical statements (about preemptive nukes, someone providing MAD assurances to UA etc...) and straight up radical accusations from Z and his team towards the west. If by January UA is still taking land from RU I'll fully agree that my assessment was wrong

Quote from: TwitchySeal on October 08, 2022, 11:18:42 PM

Quote from: DaRude on October 08, 2022, 07:57:15 PM

This symbolism of blowing up a bridge with an VBIED supposedly on Putins birthday feels like a desperate last ditch attempt to get RU to react, but looks like cooler heads are prevailing.

What are you talking about. You know Russia literally invaded and is occupying parts of Ukraine right now, right? This is what happens when one country invades another country on it's border and attempts long term occupation despite failing to conquer the other countries military or being capable of both occupying the other country and defending it's own infrastructure. Shit starts blowing up on both sides of the border.

And anyone that is genuinely outraged that Ukraine would behave this way, or feels like Russia is in any way the innocent victim is delusional.

Yes, i'm aware. It's quiet natural to go after the supply lines of the opponent and it would be dumb not to, but the problem is when attacks continue on a nuclear power plant even after RU took over the territory and was forced to shut all 6 reactors of the nuclear power plant. Guess propaganda logic dictates that's what just Orcs do, attack their own disabled power plant risking nuclear contamination of their own land now? And all of the gloating and instigation about nuclear retaliation on Putins birthday (for still functioning bridge) just don't seem right (don't have to go too far even in this thread)

Quote from: LTU_btc on October 08, 2022, 06:52:55 PM

...Now I remember words of drunk clown Dimon Medvedev about judgement day if Ukraine will attack Crimea. Or nothing didn't happened again?...