Quote from: Biodom on August 03, 2025, 06:04:55 PM

Quote from: d_eddie on August 03, 2025, 03:57:35 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 03, 2025, 02:45:44 PM

Your graph reminds me of this one:

Conclusion are not overly different, but a good parameter to keep in mind.

I cannot recall ever thinking about it like that... right now we have the 200-WMA at $51k and we have the previous ATH at $69k, and the 200-WMA is moving up around $50 per day, yet the rate per day is likely to continue to increase beyond $50 per day, so there is still room for the 200-WMA to reach that level.. we still have another $18k to go.

Which would translate into (69k$ - 51k$) / 50 $/day = 360 days, aka one year if the 200-WMA doesn't speed up significantly - which it could, but probably just a bit.

Yeah, I also guesstimated similar numbers, but @ JJG says-end of Nov 2025, which is only 119 days away.

As you mentioned, it can happened if we start ripping up (and we should Wink

), but not if we would be on a current steady projection.

Yep.. .I consider my projection to be an attempt to figure out what is the most likely base case, and surely my projection has a built in assumption of BTC prices having some decent amount of upward tear that contributes to the 200-WMA moving up faster than its current rate of moving up, and for sure, my projection might not end up playing out, even though I consider it to be a base case, and even if the crossing over of the $69k ends up happening a month or two sooner or a few months later, it does not hurt to attempt to project it out, and surely I don't proclaim to be any kind of future sorcerer, but instead trying to assign values based on what I consider scenarios that have the higher chances of playing out... which yeah, if we add up all of the scenarios maybe my base case might still only end up having 30% to 40% odds, even though I still consider my base case to be the more likely of scenarios within my own opinion frame-work (for whatever that is worth), given the various alternative scenarios that would be contending to within the realm of possibilities to play out.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on August 03, 2025, 06:20:21 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 03, 2025, 05:36:52 PM

[edited out]

Sure, no problem. Here is the full table, formatted in BBCode table form.
[table that does not show - due to INVALID BBCODE: loop, probably unclosed tags]

There may we ways that the contents of the table will show if some of the data is removed (like removing 5 years at a time until it finally shows up?).. I will not try to make any changes on my end, and I will leave it to you to figure out, for now..

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on August 03, 2025, 06:20:21 PM

I built the full table, but the forum does not like it. It says it exceeds the maximum number of characters: 64,000 characters. The entire table in BBCode format is ~58000 characters. If you add the CR+LF characters of the ~3300 lines it takes, that should just about exceed the limit...

Let me do some clever reformatting... Be back soon.

O.k. Sure. See what you can do to be able to publish the whole thing.. otherwise, if it does not cover so many dates, that might work too.. such as cutting 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 years off of the end of it.

Quote from: Biodom on August 03, 2025, 06:27:03 PM

Quote from: Paashaas on August 03, 2025, 01:26:42 PM

[edited out]

Winter is not coming back sounds wishy washy...people theorized that the world of GOT is (if we are suspending the disbelief) on a long elliptical orbit or something like that or even some "moderate two star situation"...still better than the Trisolaran world of unstable eras of Three body problem epic.

To me, it sounds like a wee bit of an arrogant "over promise and under deliver" in regards to some kind of a phenomena that is not within the ability of anyone, including Saylor to deliver... and so yeah the continuation of the 4-year cycles (or some close variant of it) seems the more probable scenario, which likely ongoingly includes goth ups and downs... whether we refer to the downs as winters or we come up with some other clever name to label them as if they were a "new" phenomena when it it merely whine delivered in a different style of a flask.

Quote from: Biodom on August 03, 2025, 06:27:03 PM

That said...my prediction would be that if we are to have a supercycle, the tension in the system would be so high that it would be followed by at least a full cycle long Depression.
Imho, the regular cycle bear makes it smoother, overall, paradoxically.

That is another way of saying that ongoing cycles seem more likely, at least for the time being, even if there might be some periods in which BTC price dynamics might seem to be deviating from its historical cycle patterns.