Nope. News Driven Events Trump All = Trading rule.

Technicals only matter part of the time. Expected news is sold. Today was unexpected (time wise). Looks like we'll take out the high (totally busting my thought).

News Driven Event = love it and fear it.

-DE

The hopes are dreams are getting ripe again.....

It means we're going down....

I pretty much top ticked it when I posted "Muppet Dominoes are set up" earlier.

-DE

Ready for the next leg?

The Muppet Dominoes are setup again....

-DE

While I loath the exchange overlords.... this does have a lot of value.
Making coin exchange easy is paramount to all crypto's success.
Of all the crooks out there, why did it have to be Goldman Sachs that patented it? 

If the Fed and Uncle Sam don't have their money grubbing hands in it, this is a sure winner (IMO)

Too bad Swiss banks aren't Swiss banks anymore... they could have done the same thing and adoption would have made Bitcoin's market cap look like spare change.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-17/goldman-wins-patent-setlcoin-technology


-DE

1st bounce off $1820's (already, wow).

Watching to see if it takes the traditional 3 hits to break it.

-DE

Impossible... it's a zero sum game.
Only so much cash backstopping a market. They gotta get retail cash in, and then take it away.

This is such a gem for them because you have two entire generations that don't trust stocks, and are investing in coins like previous generations did with stocks.

Boomers are finished, but it's their money which bankrolls the whales. They want a return on investment and the money houses will go wherever they have to.
Gen-X is a transitional generation and has the least amount of money in the coin market (their resources are still locked in the stock market, trying to recover from two crashes).
Millennials are the drivers of the coin market and are invested heavily. They missed the dot.com crash, but were old enough to witness it and distrust stocks (plus 2008 reinforced that viewpoint).
Gen-Z isn't old enough to really understand the one crash they lived thru (2008), and are still young and optimistic (and are buying coins).

New name, same game.

-DE

LOL, that's funny.

BTC broke $2000 to the downside, and we're just getting warmed up.
Hey if they want to get it all out of the way before Aug 1st... they can be my guest.

Whales don't care too much about losing right here, they care about accumulation. The target next year is already known to them. This is small potatoes. Even if they loaded the boat here, they aren't losing money.
They will get the maximum number of coins, at a variety of prices.

It will take some more destruction to change my call..... break $1200 to the downside before Aug 1st. If they do that, it's still the same plan just accelerated (I think, and still think it will be after Aug 1st that they do this).
The kicker here is if they take it to $1200 first.... there will be a pause after Aug 1st to keep shaking people out. Scaring people isn't enough, you have to make them question.... then you can rocket it. The questioners hesitate and end up chasing the upper end. That's how it's done to retails every time.

-DE

 

100% right.... except the buy at lows part.
If you have SUPER DISCIPLINE.... yes. Very few people actually have that (although a lot of people love to talk like they do, then you see them later crying).

I guess a lot depends on if you watch the action all the time (used to watch the every moment of the market day, and the futures markets at night..... super fun).
Takes balls of steel to hold stuff under those conditions (especially if you're a scalper... it's hell on earth).

But if you're aren't watching, and you're view is actually really long term.... yes, you're totally right.
Kind of a foreign concept to me..... but I'm so busy now I can't watch.... so I laugh when I check on what's happening.

When I was new, I tried catching the falling knife a few times (and got burned... LOL). That's learning.
When people write here about "buy once it goes down".... I know better. And it's not like these coins are cheap...... I mean, apples to apples, I'd rather have a stock certificate of a real company over a coin.... but this volatility can't be beat... and the best thing I was ever at trading wise was/is volatility. Made my money using options since that increased volatility.... but you also have to be really good at timing (and that's the hardest thing). With coins you get the volatility without the stinking option greeks. Beautiful.

-DE

Maybe I've been lucky then.... almost every great score I've had was betting against the herd (and far more winners than losers there, even doing it blind).
Doing great work on fundamentals would bite me every time.... Every time!!!  T/A on the other hand was 55%-45% for straight T/A, and 70%-30% when using systems and indicators I program.
I've been lobbying my stock program developer to integrate a Crypto data feed into their software.... I sure hope they do it soon. They are very hesitant to add them. Like it's a fad or something.

I've been in some great stock trading rooms over the years though... learned from some really incredible people (and paid a lot to learn from them). It is not a flip of the coin by any means.
Best trader I ever had the pleasure of knowing was a higher up at Morgan Stanley... he was beyond incredible. He was almost exclusively a contra-sentiment trader. Pure instinct, and he was right 80% of the time, just by "feel". One of the only people I would call "naturally gifted" when it came to day trading.

But on the "how exactly do you trade it to make money?", oh I can answer that no problem..... Use a really good Revert To Mean, and you're ok 80% of the time.... but only if you're fast and not greedy. Doesn't matter which direction the movement is: and with the volatility these coins have.... it's a dream come true to me.

-DE

Ok you're the exact type of person I'm trying to help (and I'm not trying to be condescending).
I started trading 10 years ago.... cut my teeth on penny stocks and small caps..... this is 100% the same behavior as crypo's. Same rules, same behaviors.

Maybe BTC is more isolated as people say it has more depth..... I can promise you it's market depth means nothing.... as does it's market cap. They aren't moving it's market cap, only it's order book and that is pure garbage.
The 1st thing people here need to do is stop looking at it as a currency, it doesn't matter if it is or isn't.... it's a stock. Same as USD, or paper Gold, or anything. If you can touch it, or get a futures contract on it, it's a commodity. If you can get a bond on something it's a security.
Any coin right now is a speculative stock.... the proper contemporary is a pink sheets stock (which runs from pennies to hundreds of dollars). The exchanges depth (the market maker/or lack of) is extremely similar.

It takes hundreds of millions to push the precious medals market around... and this is done on a daily basis. It takes billions to move the forex market around, and this is done on a daily basis.
The point is: It only takes a few million to move BTC around with a churning algo. A few million..... that's spare change. The same is done with small caps and pink sheets. It's churn.

What is the cardinal rule in trading? Sell the news.
It doesn't matter what the news is on the 1st. A long term positive decision won't be priced in advance.
Let's say some dream news comes out on the 1st.... best possible outcome. What will happen? The Muppets will buy, there will be a brief pop and the Muppets will be happy. The big boys will sell into the pop, and then drag it down. Why? The retail buyers will get nervous and question their purchase (understandable). There's nothing like loosing money to make people nervous.
What would you think if the news is good, and it drops below $2000? $1800? $1600?

2nd thing people need to understand is: The crowd is always wrong. If the general consensus is "after the 1st, it's going to go up".... and this IS the general consensus.... it means it is NOT going to happen. You're playing against the masters. Do they mind throwing away 20 million to drop it under $2000 when 90% of the Muppets think it'll go up? Not at all. If they can grab say a million coins and save a few hundred dollars a coin..... when they inflate it later.... they make hundreds of millions. That's the game.

I've seen it thousands of times, on hundreds of stocks I've followed closely. Fundamentals don't matter. Technicals only matter part of the time.

3rd thing people need to understand: Have you noticed the Coin exchanges break during big down moves? That's because of a lack of market depth. It happens on the big stock exchanges too. Anytime BATS breaks, that's manip and volume wasting the book. That's also how to you get phantom bars in trading software (algo's moving so fast they overwhelm the order book). So BTC is safe because so many people are "in it". No, no , no, my friend. That will get you killed. I've seen so many people go bust in stocks because they 100% believed what they were doing was right, and being right outweighed making money or being safe.


Just trying to help anyone who will listen. Be aware and be prepared. Have a plan.
My plan is to laugh. I've seen it before, and I'll see it again. Doesn't mean I like seeing good people get hurt.... quite the opposite.....I've seen that before.... and I'll see it again.

Hope you're right and we get a moon-shot right out of the gate after the 1st. That would be great. Experience tells me that's not going to happen.

-DE

All these peeps, holding for the "recovery" after Aug 1st.....

Don't you know the big boys are going to crush those hopes right after Aug 1st no matter what the outcome is?
That's a lot of free coins for them to grab, they aren't going to let the little guy make any money.... that's their money as far as they're concerned.
And yes, it's free coins for them.... because they manipulate the price.... so all the coins they grab from you will be sold after they bring the price back up (even if only for a little while). That's free profit for them.


So if you're holding, that's great... more power to you. I'm holding too, but I do know what's coming and it's impossible to catch the bottom.... I just don't care and I'll be laughing all the way down.

Remember your wits, don't get emotional, and for heavens sake..... when everyone is jumping out of windows (and they will)..... LAUGH.

-DE


"Why does Goldman Sachs call retail investors "Muppets"? Because they are....."

The sky..... it's falling!!!!

Bahahahahahah!!!!

No ain't seen nothing yet.....


-DE

I've created and used dozens of custom indicators and systems for ESignal, Omnitrader and VisualTrader over the years and it would be great to play around with Crypto's using those applications but I haven't seen a data provider which offers feeds for them.

Sure the webpage quote providers are fine and dandy (a really good effort), but are toys compared to real trading software.

None of the big data houses are offering it (Esignal, Metastock, IqFeed)....

Anyone get their trading platform to interface with some sort of crypto feed?

-DE

Whatever it takes to get real panic... and this "crash" wasn't it. Not even close. Look at all the people saying "buy it low, it's going back up".... those hopes and dreams have to be crushed..... AND the miners have to get out too, the only way is to make mining unprofitable at all.
All that has to happen before the moonshot (IMO).

Been trading stocks for a long time, that's how the game is played. Whatever you think the low is, it's not.
Accept it, and laugh at it.


Real Theory: People are commenting about a head and shoulders pattern various crypto's (and yes it's valid). Very easy..... break the neckline and that'll scare people to death (and it should).... clears the way to a $1250 target.... people panic as it passes $1800 to the downside..... THEN you have the real panic as the last bag-holders give up when it passes $1600 on the "sure" drop to $1250..... you get your flash crash, people pat themselves on the back for being so smart... and then it shoots up, letting people chase.
That's how it's done.
And what about altcoins? Look how they're performing now with BTC barely moving? Imagine a move like this on BTC, what do you think XMR will look like? To me it's $8

-DE

Gartman is possibly the worst stock investor/Fund Manager in the world.
He flips and flops more than a fish out of water, and after losing this investors lots of money.... declares victory.
They are constantly writing about him on Zerohedge and his terrible calls.
If you're ever on the same side of a trade as Gartman...... RUN!!!!

-DE

That's my second thought as well.....

But we get a bounce before that, so that everyone thinks "all clear".

The big boys hate us filthy muppets.... just ask Goldman Sachs.

-DE

My magic predictions:

(USD)
BTC = $1600
DASH = $85
ZEC = $65
ETH = $115
XMR = $8

But why?!?!?!?

Top ten theories:

1. AMD and Nvidia created altcoins to sell GPU's.... and they're fresh out.
2. The CIA is finished laundering their money for the year
3. Russia hacked all the coins
4. The Bitcoin ruling counsel is stabbing each other with forks
5. Dennis Gartman thought Coins looked like a buy
6. The Trump-Coin ICO is diverting all the money away from other coins
7. Stephen Hawking thinks coins will destroy the earth
8. Global Warming is caused by hot coins melting the polar ice caps
9. Central bankers couldn't figure out how to print Debt-Coins and sell them to governments everywhere
10. Without Dave Letterman, a good "top ten reasons to buy Altcoins" doesn't air on TV and people forget all about altcoins.

-DE
 

240v eh? That's a great idea....

Maybe on the next house 

Been mining away, happy as can be.... only to find a very warm outlet where nothing had been plugged into (in the next room).
"Hmmmm, what's this?" I say.

Turn off the breakers and pull it apart.... deformed plastic and a burnt neutral wire. That's weird. So I run to Lowes and replace the outlet.
Start up the miners again, and wouldn't you know it.... three slightly warm outlets in the next room (same 15amp circuit).
None of the unused outlets in my office are warm (same circuit).

"Wut?"... I've never tripped the breaker, and only using around 1200watts on this rig (on this circuit). I guess spreading rigs across circuits just isn't enough.

After talking with an electrician, I learned that heavy computer loads put strain on the neutral cable.
Time to install larger circuits with thicker wires. What a pain....

So before you burn your house down, check all your outlets on any circuit your miners sit on. The return wire could be struggling even if you're careful about the wattage you're using.

-DE

What what are you saying? That ETH will be $10 like 6 months ago?