Of course, you can do what you like, and you might even win on a few occasions, yet I doubt that trading it s good strategy when it comes to bitcoin.  You are rolling the dice each time you make your various bets.  Of course, there can be ways that you bet in both directions.


There are probably better threads that deal with trading/gambling, but yeah, it is not off topic hear for you to talk about your supposed smart strategies in playing the waves, and i have a hard time believing that you are fucking around with trading and then when you get a certain level of profits (like $100), then you will fold that into bitcoin and then continue gambling/trading with your other capital.. So for example you start out with $25 and you trade it until it reaches $100 and then put it into bitcoin... That might not be a bad system if that was what you were really doing, but I doubt that.


Yes.. it can be fun to gamble, and even to play around with a certain percent of your BTC holdings.. hopefully no more than 10% of your bitcoin holdings, without cheating.. yet of course, you are playing around with much larger amounts, as you mentioned.  And, you also mentioned that you were not very rich.. so presumptively you are trying to accumulate more bitcoin, yet you may also be trying to accumulate more dollars..   You might not even know the difference since you are caught up upon short term value... but yeah if you have been into bitcoin since September 2018, you surely have had some opportunities to really build up your holdings, but instead you are more likely spinning your wheels and not even outperforming a more strict accumulation through buying and hold strategy, that does not involve trading and/or selling.

Of course, if you would have had an ability to front load your bitcoin investment you could have had done even better, yet if we might imagine that you might have only been able to get something like $50 per week into bitcoin and you had focused exclusively on buying bitcoin from September 2018 to present, then you would have invested right around $18k and you would have still accumulated close to 1.2 bitcoin... so I have my doubts that your fucking around with trading has done better than that.

Maybe part of your problem is that you are not able to find employment to give you an income so that you have discretionary income and that you can actually invest into bitcoin.. yet it takes a long time to build up a bitcoin holdings, and it likely takes longer if you are gambling with high quantities of what you had already accumulated.., you are likely not to make progress with your spending a bunch of time trying to figure out squigglie lines... but yeah, of course, do as you wish.


You are giving even mor reason to justify not fucking around with selling - except maybe to test your liquidity from time to time, yet, you likely would be better off to just keep accumulating and putting your bitcoin on the side, and maybe at some point in the future, you will haver more options to use your bitcoin without fears of reprisals.  For sure, we know that some jurisdictions are hostile to bitcoin, and so one of your calculations regards how to deal with such current hostilities, and maybe considering the extent to which you have to keep your bitcoin in a more private way and to assure that you are not drawing attention to yourself.

Sure another option is that government hostilities are too overwhelming and you are having difficulties figuring out ways to secure your bitcoin.  People are frequently left with difficult choices, and probably even harder choices if your local government is outwardly hostile to bitcoin.


Your choice.. but you are not getting the benefits of bitcoin's compounding value over a couple of cycles if you are extracting profits (milk) from it on too regular of a basis.  Yeah, sure maybe you are doing better because you get extra income from it, but you are surely not getting the full value and power of bitcoin.

Like I mention in my investment ideas thread and my post about compounding value, bitcoin prices have largely doubled close to 9 times since 2015 when bitcoin prices were at $250.. so that compounding value has brought close to 256x in appreciation.. which is way more than what you are getting when you are ongoingly shaving off profits and not allowing your coins to double in value a few times before you start to shave off profits.


One man's fun is another man's financial freedom, and so sure, you can have fun if you like, yet you might never be able to achieve power from bitcoin if your bitcoin is not building up over time, even if it might take you 20 years or more to build up a stash.  Sure some guys do not have 20 years and you do not need to have 20 years in order to be empowered by the building up of a bitcoin stash, which I usually suggest an investment timeline of 4-10 years or longer and not to be fucking around with short term moves.. .but yeah, you are going to continue to advocate for your way of doing it, when it comes off as a very much inferior practice and perspective about bitcoin.

ONLY you are able to figure out if your are ready, willing and/or able to pursue superior practices and to improve your perspective in the direction of investing rather than trading.


You seem to be arguing against yourself and the disadvantages of trading.

To the investor, it might not matter if the coins were bought at $55k, $60k or $70k.  Sure, it is better to get them cheaper, yet it is even more  better to continue to accumulate through buying on a regular, consistent, persistent ongoing and even aggressive way (as long as your cashflow management is in good order).  I tend to like weekly buys for those who are in their earliest years of BTC accumulation, but surely there can be ways to tailor that too.. .so for example you might have a shitty paying job, but you figure out how much you can invest each week, and then maybe from time to time you get some kind of bonus or are able to do some other kind of work and so maybe from time to time you might have an additional lump sum amount (besides your regular weekly buys) that you can consider the extent to which you will 1) buy right away, 2) defer by time (DCA) and/or 3) defer by price (buy on dips that may or may not end up happening).


Leverage increases your costs, so of course, you have to figure out your ability to pay back if the price moves against you.  A common form of leverage is a loan, and so sometimes if a person can get favorable terms such as a long terms and low interest rates, then it might make sense to enter into such a load to front load your bitcoin investment, yet you also need to have an ability to service the loan and/or pay it off at the end of the term if the BTC price moves against you.  Leveraging does not tend to be necessary in bitcoin, even though from time to time, it could be strategically employed, and of course, MSTR/Saylor employs leveraging, yet he tends to be able to set good terms, which are frequently beyond the capability of many individuals to negotiate such favorable terms.


I suppose you are learning through it, yet hard to know if you are pursuing a profitable strategy, and of course, you have to figure out those matters for yourself.


Well yeah.. There are surely some hazards with some strategies, and you have had so many opportunties to accumulate bitcoin over the past 7 years, yet you still seem to believe that trading is your path forward.  The longer that it takes you to figure out that you need to build up your holdings through ongoing buying, then the longer that you are likely going to be spending spinning your wheels, and yeah, if you really do have a low income (with low discretionary income) then it could take a long time to build up a bitcoin portfolio, so for example, if you are ONLY able to invest 10% of your income into bitcoin, it is going to take you 10 years to invest 1 year's income into bitcoin, yet if you are able to figure out a way to invest 25% of your income into bitcoin, then it will only take you 4 years to invest a year's income into bitcoin.. .

So one of the questions might be how much discretionary income can you achieve in order to really build your bitcoin stash, and really to focus on building rather than fucking around and having fun.   Sure, there can be some fun in there, but likely it is better to limit your funzies to less than 10% the size of your bitcoin holdings, and focus on the building rather than the fun part.. so that maybe we don't need to hear about the ways that you are not treating bitcoin seriously....because if you are spending less than 10% on your trading, then that is a less important part of your bitcoin journey, and you might get that to  be included in the way you think about bitcoin too.. both good practices and good thoughts. 

You are surely not the ONLY one who gets sucked into trading and even sucked into trading way more of their portfolio than would be deemed reasonable and/or prudent... not that you want to be prudent, when you are having fun, right?


For sure one of the challenges of self-custody is to be able to pass on the information in a way that is sufficiently clear in order to put the pieces of the puzzle together.  It is o.k. to put together the pieces of the puzzle after the person has passed (or becomes incapacitated) in such a way that it may well be clear that the pieces of the puzzle should be put together in order to gain control over the assets, which truly should remind us that there may well be persons who either already lost control of keys or will end up losing control of keys due to the likely inabilities of heirs to be able to figure out how to gain custody over the keys.


Just so guys understand how the BIP-39 passphrase works, you need the passphrase for any hidden wallet that you are retrieving.

Trezor is not the ONLY company that uses BIP-39 and also passphrases.

Now if you find the seed which is usually either 12 words or 24 words (though there are some other possible quantities), then you enter that seed phrase into a some compatible hardware device, then the standard wallet will show (that is the wallet that does not need a passphrase).

The Trezor and many other wallets can create an infinite number of hidden wallets, and each of those wallets is created (and then subsequently accessed) by using a passphrase... so anyone who is recovering a wallet with a passphrase then if he gets the seedword, then he has access to the standard wallet, but if he wants to get into any of the hidden wallets he has to know the passphrase or to be able to guess it.

Let's say that I had a wallet and the passphrase was W@Observer.  Then I could have another one with W@Observer1, and then W@Observer2,
W@Observer3,
W@Observer4,
W@Observer5,
etc etc etc.

Each one creates a new wallet.. with 10 or more sub accounts within each wallet for each account type (and they have like 5 different account types that can be recognized within each wallet, such as legacy, segwit, legacy segwit, taproot, coinjoin).  So each wallet can have 50 bitcoin accounts, and it also can be shitcoin compatible and recognize a variety of shitcoins with the same seedphrase.  Trezor allows the firmware on the device to be bitcoin only or to be shitcoin compatible.

The passphrase is case sensitive, so w@observer would create a different wallet from W@Observer.  If I am recovering, I need to know that I have to get the exact case correct, including that I can also use symbols in the passphrase.

I doubt that we can blame students for wanting to get ahead, even though the whole cost of higher education (especially in the USA) has become outrageously fueled by debt and so then screwing up various incentives.  I was a bit delayed in going to college, but I still ended up having a combination of loans and grants, and overall my college debt was reasonable, but yeah that was mostly all accomplished more than 25 years ago, so the costs have gotten even more crazy in terms of higher education being one of the areas that had been going up way higher than the cost of living, and then the government issues debt (and subsidies) and the universities seem to raise their prices based on how much subsidies the government has been getting.  I am not against education, and I think if we are individually figuring out our potential for cost benefits, we are considering the costs and sometimes maybe not being very sure about the marketability of any field that we might be choosing to pursue.


Surely that is part of the problem in regards to selling and expecting to buy back cheaper.

You may end up with way fewer coins than you could have had if you had stayed focused on accumulating through buying only.

Once you get to an over-accumulation status, then sure you can sell some coins, but not necessarily with expectations of buying back cheaper.

We've seen it over and over and over in this thread... and guys doubling down and tripling down and the price keeps going up instead of their hope for down.. and then down doesn't come until later and at much higher prices, and then pretty soon we don't see those guys around here  any more.

We have amongst the best, if not the best place to put value and accumulate it, and you want to try to be smart and trade it?  Go figure.


Ok.. fair enough. I thought that you gave a 2022 date earlier.. .. even though surely we know that you were sitting on a lot of cash in 2022.

In the end, it is your deal, but you are describing it and even seeming to brag about some of these trades, so you put trading and also shitcoining (silver, copper, etc) as compared with bitcoin investing into question.


Yeah.. silver another burden... and if you are wanting to concentrate on your supposed improvement since 2017, you likely are barking up the wrong tree since you could have had done quite well if you started concentrating on bitcoin accumulation since 2019 rather than the various inferior investments that you mention from time to time.  You probably could have gotten close to 30 BTC from 2017 to present.  I don't necessarily want to know the specifics of your actual holdings except you are mentioning actual numbers (or invented numbers,.. either way.. we don't need to use actual numbers). .


The purpose of my various questions is not meant to insult, but instead talk about and respond to substantive ideas that you are bringing up from time to time.


Yeah.. perhaps the mining had done good.. and had some good periods.  It seems quite complicated to figure out the numbers...


I don't want to make this personal, but even if you started to get serious about accumulating bitcoin in mid-2018, then that likely would have had been better than trading.. or maybe even mining.. but yeah you had business partners in the mining portion until just recently, so I understand that sometimes there can be difficulties to figure out times to break those relations, which you ended up doing in the last 2-3 years..

You don't need to respond further with your particulars... but we could outline some hypotheticals or even discuss some of the underlying substantive matters without getting so personal.  You inject personal information that then puts your claims into question.. Maybe you should not be sharing so much information, since I think guys should be able to ask questions about the substance of any of the posts of other guys, but sometimes guys don't bring up certain details... . but if you bring up certain details then they become relevant and fair game for other guys to ask about.

Bitcoin is not a stock, yet surely there are several kinds of derivative products that have turned bitcoin into something like a stock, and so bitcoin is not the same as those other stocks, whether referring to Apple or Amazon or whatever other stocks that you might own.

There are also legal requirements that Blackrock, Fidelity and the other Bitcoin ETF providers have to hold bitcoin and/or some other ways of backing up the shares that they issue, yet sometimes companies engaged in shenanigans to manipulate the market, and surely they could be running some risks to attempt to manipulate bitcoin beyond certain levels in which they might not have the BTC to back up the shares that their various clients are purchasing.

Ultimately this thread is about bitcoin rather than derivative products, even if supposedly they have enough bitcoin to cover all of their bitcoin  liabilities, this is likely not the place to be trying to argue about the pros and cons of inferior products.. even though sure Larry Fink and his team are out marketing bitcoin and they seem to be on the side of bitcoin in order to sell their derivative products, and surely there are some folks (such as institutions, governments and/or individuals who are holding some kind of retirement account) who are unwilling or unable to directly buy bitcoin, so they are able to buy derivative products such as BTC ETFs.

Getting into too much discussion of BTC ETFs and/or comparing them to bitcoin might be deserving of another thread, to the extent that threads already exist related to such topics.

Even though various ETFs provide demand on the BTC price, another layer of complication is included regarding the shares that are issued and the process behind it and how they are funded, so it might not always be clear if Blackrock or any of the other ETF providers are not sometimes floating the fulfillment of the BTC that are supposedly to back their ETFs, and also the legal owner of the BTC would be Blackrock and/or their custodian rather than the BTC ETF shareholder.


Even if a bitcoin ETF might work for some folks, including the employment of a DCA strategy, owning a Bitcoin ETF is not necessarily perfect, and it is also not on topic to be pumping that shitcoin on this thread.

This thread is about bitcoin, and if you provide a link to some other thread, then no problem providing that here.. but we should not be getting into the weeds of comparing and/or contrasting the owning of bitcoin to various derivative products (including BTC ETF products) in this thread.


5% to 10% is much better than 0%.

People have to figure out what they are ready, willing and able to invest into bitcoin. 

Of course, I personally recommend beginners consider anywhere between 5% and 25%, yet of course, they have to figure out if they have discretionary income and that they are able to invest 4-10 years or longer too.. even though in the very beginning they might not know if they are going to be ready, willing and able to commit to invest into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer.  So they haver to work out for themselves the level of their aggressiveness based on their cashflow situation and likely based on their 9 individual factors.

Sure there are going to be folks who have more experience and some who have less experience in managing their finances, yet I like to consider that many normal people get into a habit of keeping a little bit of a cash cushion so that they are not putting themselves into situations of completely running out of cash, since it is quite stressful to run out of money.. and so it seems likely that many normies are already in some kind of a habit to keep somewhere between 2 to 6 weeks of their expenses in cash, and sure some normies are more prepared with larger quantities of funds and some are less prepared and maybe just keeping $100 or so in the cookie jar, and not everyone falls within a range of keeping at least a 2 week cash cushion.

Most people are also not used to investing, so if they get into bitcoin they have to learn how to invest (to the extent that they had not already known about investing), but they also have to learn that since bitcoin is so volatile and also upwardly inclined in the longer term, therefore, it is not good to just tap into the bitcoin investment once it is in place, even if the bitcoin investment might be in profits, and so therefore the back up funds, such as emergency funds and reserve funds become more and more important to keep a gap between the person's ongoing income and cashflow situation as compared with their investment into bitcoin that they may well have had decided that they would be holding 4-10 years or longer or for the remainder of their life.. ..

Bitcoin is likely a life time investment so if we build it up early then we may well just constantly be keeping our value in bitcoin and learning how to manage it.

I agree with your suggestion that there likely is going to be quite a bit of variation in regards to how much back up funds guys are keeping, and that their own financial and psychological circumstances will most likely affect how much they keep, how they are going to keep it and the extent to which they need to make sure that they are not putting themselves in stressful situations and/or that they are perhaps trying to figure out ways to prioritize the protection of their BTC stash.... so with greater and greater practice they will likely get better at it, especially if they are trying to learn from their experiences.


Many normal people have forgotten how to save (and/or so they never learned it) in modern times.  When the money is debasing so bad and they are not able to earn interest on their deposit in banks, then they don't want to save and they have not learned how to save, even though intuitively people still know that if something (like a currency or something that is spendable) is more valuable or less valuable then they would spend the less valuable thing first and hold onto the more valuable item.  Many folks are still just learning that bitcoin is the most valuable of currencies and/or assets, so there is a need to spend fiat and even other assets before spending bitcoin, and part of the reason for us to build and maintain a cash cushion is so that we won't have to spend bitcoin merely based on some short term situation in which the income might be low and the expenses high (or expenses exceed income).


Sounds reasonable to me.

The point that I was making to criticize OgNasty was a bit broader, since he was proclaiming that almost all hate, violence and crime was coming from the left.

Surely in the Kirk shooting case there seems to be fairly strong evidence that the shooting was motivated by political differences of opinion, and so yeah, if the bullets are engraved then it becomes less ambiguous that the political motivations were intended to be known.

I think that the kinds of facts that I was suggesting OgNasty to be leaving out relates to evidence of hate, violence and/or crime that comes from right wing rather than left wing ideology.  From my perspective OgNasty is so obvious in his own ways of seeing the world and presenting the issue that there is hardly any need to counter it, except just to point out that he is making outrageous claims and failing/refusing to provide evidence for his outrageous claims (or to to rebutt the counter-evidence).


Your lucky break Phil. 

Now do the exercise of having had bought bitcoin with the money that you had used to buy that copper.  Where would you be?

Did you remember to subtract your costs from your profits?  Cost of storage and moving that stuff around? and the liquidity?  Buying it yourself and then finding sellers. 

Sure, maybe you are doing a service to the copper market, but still.  I bet bitcoin would have had been better, and I think that you had already given the dates that you got the copper  (was it 2022 that you got the copper?  or is that just my imagination?).. but I am a bit lazy to research back into your earlier posts on the topic..


I suppose in the end if you feel better about what you are doing and how you are "not affected" then that is the main thing. You could have had done worse by staying in the dollar, but instead you got into copper, but not bitcoin.

I see opportunity costs in your explanation of your choices, but apparently, you felt that you needed to have a more tangible diversification away from the dollar and also away from bitcoin.


Many of us get played, and we are not always aware of how much we are being played.  It takes a long time to build up critical thinking skills, and sure some folks have better foundations than others, yet even the critical thinkers can sometimes get sucked into a bit of a trap.  I know that I have been tricked a lot of times in my life, and it is not easy, even if we might realize that we are being tricked.. there are also certain modern conveniences that many of us do not want to give up, including but not limited to yours truly.


Surely it is good to work on your learning and your ability to learn, and surely there are criticisms of what some schools are teaching, so sometimes it can seem challenging to break through and to become a life long learner, whether through school or through other ways.

On a personal level, I am thinking that I would have not been able to achieve certain kinds of critical thinking skills (to the extent that I have them) and even job (income) prospects if I had not ended up going to school (including higher education). 

By the way, when I first graduated from high school, I thought that I really did not like school and/or the authority figures of teachers, and because of that, I had initially considered that college was not for me, so it took me a few years of trying forms of self-learning and really going a bit all over the place, before I honed on college course work as being a way to help me to be able to better help myself.  There could have had been some short-cuts, but higher learning really was not considered to be a practical route (at least in the earliest of my years and my upbringing).  Blame my parents... hahahahahaha

Of course, I understand that if any of us is adding a new activity to our routine (such as pushups), then maybe it is better to try to do the things related to the activity every day while we are getting used to the daily habit and to reinforce our carrying out the new habit.

There are likely going to be a lot of people regretting having had sold too much bitcoin too soon at or around $100k.  Yeah, $100k was a nice round number and it seem like a BIG number, but there is still a need to be careful about selling too much too soon.

There might have had been a few who sold some bitcoin at and around $100k and then bought back, yet I doubt that the dominant mindset was hanging onto your bitcoin, which is likely part of the reason that we have been spending quite a bit of time at and around $100k.

We will see what happens, and it is always dangerous to be trying to trade bitcoin and then ending up with way more bitcoin than you would have had because you are expecting dips that do not end up happening.

it is a repeated pattern in bitcoin that is not likely to end.. , just like there were too many folks selling around $1k in 2017 and too many selling at around $10k in 2017, 2018, 2019 and even into 2020... .. Funny when I say it.  We were around $10k for a pretty long time.. covering 4 calendar years.  I doubt that we are going to spend so much time around $100k, but who knows?  Almost anything can happen, but some things are more likely than other things... and frequently people get it wrong, especially in regards to bitcoin and especially in regards to low coiners, no coiner and those who have been thinking about bitcoin as a trade rather than as an investment.


You seem to be talking about trading rather than investing.  Even a more elderly person should come into bitcoin with at least a 4 year timeline for any new buy that he makes, otherwise he is trading rather than investing.

Of course, if someone reaches overaccumulation status he has more options, and if he reaches such status in just a year or two, then he still has more options to sell beyond his overaccumulated amount, yet he still may well be devolving into trading rather than investing, yet if he is only selling within his overaccumulated amount then it could be argued that he is still investing with the portion of BTC that he continues to hold.

Maybe an example might help?  Let's use your form registration date and say that about 2.5 years ago (in the beginning of 2023) a person had an income of $30k per year, and he had been investing aggressively (in non bitcoin areas) for somewhere around 10 years before coming to bitcoin (maybe he was investing 25% per year - around $8k per year and $150 per week), and so his investment portfolio before coming to bitcoin had grown to right around 5x his income  (a combination of what he put in (around $80k) and appreciation of the investment over a bit more than 10 years). .So maybe in early 2023 had $150k in his investment portfolio, and when he heard about bitcoin he got excited and considered that he would channel a lot of what he had previously been investing into bitcoin for the next 2.5 years (which would be around $20k), and he would take around 1/2 of his then investment and but that into bitcoin (so that would be $75k), which means that over that 2.5-ish years period he was planning to invest around $100k into bitcoin...  

He would invest straight from his income and in order to incur the fewest of penalties, he would withdraw from his already existing investment and transfer it into bitcoin... on a weekly and/or monthly basis so he would have had invested $700 per week since January 2023, and he would have had invested close to $100k and he would have accumulated close to 2.2 BTC that currently has a spot price value of $250k and a 200-WMA value of $115k.

Personally, I would consider that he has not yet over invested into bitcoin, and maybe he should continue to invest at around $100 to $150 per week - presuming that he has withdrawn as much as he believes reasonable from his traditional investment..  Yet of course, these are personal choices about what to do and whether enough stacking has taken place in merely a 2 year timeline, even though he is right around 2.5x in profits with the spot price of his current holdings, yet the 200-WMA value of his 2.2 BTC holdings is ONLY about $115k (which means that he could only sustainably withdraw about $11.5k per year.  In part his own assessment of what he would like to withdraw might make a difference.

The scenario would be slightly different if the guy had withdrawn the whole $75k from his traditional investment in early 2023 and maybe invested it over 3-6 months and included to buy bitcoin with a DCA of around $150 per week from his regular income, then maybe he could have had accumulated around 3.6 bitcoin, yet I am still not sure if 3.6 BTC would get him to overaccumulation status, at least not enough to be selling any major portions of his holdings.. yet sure, again, these are somewhat personal discretionary decisions even though some choices will likely be shown to be better ways of dealing with the matter than others..


You have been registered on the forum as long as me, and you are still distracted by shitcoins, and thinking that it is a good idea to try to trade bitcoin?  Hopefully you have been investing in bitcoin rather than fucking around trying to predict tops...

You may well realize that there are a couple of primary ways that guys can go wrong in their approach to bitcoin which relate to failure/refusal to adequately prepare for up, which is selling too much to soon and failing/refusing to buy enough.  Which one are you?   You might not realize which one you are.

If you had merely been investing around $50 per week since your forum registration date, you would have invested less than $30k, but you would have close to 23 BTC.  I doubt whatever fucking around with trading and/or shitcoining that you've been doing (and/or focusing upon) has gotten you close to or better than those kinds of results.

You don't need to stress yourself about submitting your pushup report every day, and just provide the latest numbers whenever you submit your report.

Some of us are submitting our pushup reports every day and others are submitting the pushup reports whenever convenient which may well not be any exact schedule or pattern.


Even though putting the date in your pushup report is optional, if you want Dirty Keyboard's script to read your date, then you need to put two digits for month and two digits for day.. . so your report should have had shown the date like this 2025-09-11.

Don't let any actual facts get in the way of your analysis spin.

You are using the term "Compounding effect" incorrecty.

You probably meant to say cumulative effect.

Compounding effect tends to be used to describe something that grows in value, such as bitcoin.

back up funds are kept in cash and they are likely ongoingly losing value (since the cash is debasing), yet if we are building up an emergency fund, then nominally it will keep growing as we keep adding to it.. so it is a cumulative effect and not a compounding effect.

Bitcoin grows in value, so for example every time it doubles in value (not quantity), then the next time it goes to double again, the original value plus the gained value will double upon itself.  So for example if we look at bitcoin from 250 until now, it has doubled in value nearly 9 times (I list out the compounding value of bitcoin in this post), even though the nominal might not have had changed..  Frequently the term compounding is used in the context of interest or yield, but it can also be used in terms of value.


We need to figure out our own internal rules upon what conditions we might draw down our funds, and then for example, if the funds get to such a low point that they are considered emergency funds, we might stop buying more bitcoin and/or take other measure to protect ourselves, maybe cut back on certain expenses and maybe start looking harder for ways to raise money whether it is working or selling things...

In the beginning we might not have a very large cushion of resources, yet I would think when we get 3-4 years or more into our investment, we should have had built up better systems of back up funds and also built our bitcoin holdings at the same time.

Even though we are attempting to find a balance that is comfortable, it is probably not correct to consider investing into bitcoin as a form or achieving perfection or that perfection has to be achieved.

There are a lot of ways that we can make mistakes, yet even if we make mistakes we can learn from the mistakes, and if the mistakes are not too BIG, then we would continue to be invested in bitcoin for many years into the future, perhaps for the rest of our lives.

I frequently suggest that guys invest as aggressively as they can without overdoing it, yet if anyone is investing as aggressive as they can, then they are going to need to be more organized than the whimpy investor.

Let's say that a guy with a $30k per year income got into bitcoin 8 years ago, and he had a discretionary income of about $150 per week, yet he decided to get into bitcoin with merely a $10 per week investment, and so over the past 8 years, he would have had invested $4,200 and accumulated right around 0.303  BTC, and if he had invested $100 per week he would have had invested $42k and accumulated 3.03 BTC.

Surely it would be better to be the guy who invested 10x more, yet even the guy who invested merely $10 per week is in a better position for having had invested into bitcoin as compared to if he had not invested in bitcoin.

Also, it could be possible that the guy who invested more aggressively might have had ended up making mistakes with his cashflow, since he was choosing to spend a higher quantity of his discretionary income on bitcoin.
 

We would not want to overdo it or to under do it, yet there is likely no perfect answer regarding what is the best allocation, and a person who is in touch with his actions and trying to learn from his practices will likely have better possible outcomes and even more likely productive tweakings of his investment and/or his cashflows from time to time.


Of course a cushion can be for anything to cover, extra expenses, needs or wants, and maybe a guy keeps one jar that has $500 for emergencies and then he has another jar that he keeps $200 so that he can spend it on whatever he likes, like a night out at the clubs or something like that, and maybe he only splurges once every few months, but it gives him a lot of pleasure to have that $200 to do whatever he likes as a way of treating himself once every 2-3 months.

Now, the longer that he is in bitcoin, and the more solid his bitcoin stash, he might slowly increase each of the jars.. especially the "one for fun," and yeah, maybe he would have had been better off to have had bought bitcoin with that extra money, but he also wants to feel good about his life.  So part of the aspects of "discretionary" funds is that guys can do whatever they want with that money, even dumb shit and even smart shit.  So, their actions have consequences, yet their path might not even be close to perfect, even though each of us likely try to get within a path that is acceptable for us and within consideration of our 9 individual factors.

Sure. Of course, that is reasonable.  We would have to be on opposite sides of the bet and each of us believing that our side of the bet has the better chances for prevailing.

By the way, I just counted the number of days, and yesterday had 10 days, and today has 9 days.  So at minimum, we need 9 more days above $106,767 to knock off the remaining 2024 trade-weighted prices.


There does seem to be a lot of pent up frustration, and since so many folks have video cameras (including phones) and access to publishing and/or sharing information, we are seeing a lot more of the pent up frustration through the internet channels than we would have had seen historically.

Well, today, we finished the daily trade-weighted average above $112k, so maybe we could leave this area and not fill in any more $112k slots?   That might be 50/50 odds?

A person can try to work towards making himself more financially stable, and bitcoin is one of the tools that are available, yet just investing into bitcoin won't be enough if a person cannot generate discretionary income and/or to have some form of income that is available to pay expenses and then to have left over funds (discretionary funds) to be able to invest.  

Sometimes unstable situations are temporary, and sometimes they last a long time. .A person could start out stable and then go unstable for a period of time, and then work himself back into being stable again.  There are a lot of scenarios in which aspects of an investment into bitcoin might either be interrupted or at least challenged in terms of being able to continue to invest into it, and if there are cashflow problems, then adding to the bitcoin investment may well need to be temporarily suspended ..

Ideally we create and maintain our cashflow management systems/practices to lessen chances that unstable periods of our finances and/or our psychology will have negative impacts and/or to mitigate any negative impacts that they end up having on our bitcoin investment.

It seems to me also if a person can get through a whole cycle of investing into bitcoin (like 4 years), it is likely he would have built stronger cashflow management practices and built his bitcoin investment during that time too - and also he will hopefully become better informed by his 4 years of investing in bitcoin and building his cashflow management systems to prioritize investing in bitcoin and to tweak and/or to improve in any areas that he might determine as necessary to improve - and many times 4 years is not going to have had been enough for a person who is just investing regularly, and it is likely there will be a need to continue to invest and/or build beyond 4 years.  

Of course, the more that a person had been able to front load his investment into bitcoin (such as he comes across other money or he starts out by having some other money sources), then perhaps he would be in a better position to have had gotten to a bitcoin stash size in which he might determine that it is justified for him to slow down on his bitcoin accumulation process.

Let me give an example of the past 4 years and an example of the past 8 years, just to show how a bitcoin investment might progress, even though surely past performance does not guarantee future results.

4-year investor: Let's say that a person was able to invest fairly aggressively at a rate of 25% per year of his income into bitcoin for the past 4 years, so that is about as aggressive as anyone is able to reasonably expect to be able to do, and he needs to have that money as part of his discretionary income.  Additionally, he is going to have to have fairly strong cashflow management skills/practices to accomplish an ability to ongoingly invest around 25% of his income into bitcoin, and if this guy earned an income of $30k per year, then over 4 years he would have had invested $30k, which would have been about $150 per week.

In such a scenario, this 4-year investor guy would have had accumulated right around 0.83 BTC which currently has a spot price value of right around $93k and a 200-WMA value of around $44k, and so surely his investment is doing well, yet it is not quite close enough to really change his practices of ongoing BTC accumulation, and he likely would want to and need to continue to invest, since a 200-WMA value of $44k would likely only support around a $4,400 per year income, and maybe this guy has goals to get to a point of doubling his income to something like $60k or even to get his investment up to an ability to withdraw $80k per year.    So perhaps he  is not going to withdraw any of the bitcoin until it adequately reaches his threshold target level of being able to generate something between $60k and $80k per year of income.

8-year investor: Sometimes the investment just needs to run its course a bit longer to start to feel more solid results.  Let's say that a similarly-situated guy with a $30k per year income and investing 25% of his income at $150 per week, had followed the same plan as above for the whole past 8 years, yet the only difference was that he started investing in 2017 (4 years earlier, for a total of 8 years investing), and so he had invested $60k over the past 8 years and accumulated 4.55 BTC.   Right now 4.55 BTC has a spot price value of right around $508k and a 200-WMA value of around $238k, and so surely his investment is doing better than the guy who had ONLY been investing 4 years, and so right now if we look at his 200-WMA valuation, we can see such $238k 200-WMA valuation  would currently support an annual income of $24k (and so surely he is getting closer and closer to his goals), but he had not yet reached his goals    

Even if his goal is to get his income up to $80k per year, before he might start to draw from his bitcoin, he can see from my latest fuck you status table that it is likely that somewhere between 4.55 BTC and 5 BTC (in case he wants to continue accumulating) would get him to an ability to withdraw $80k per year in early 2029, which surely would not be bad for a person who had started out with ONLY an income of $30k per year, but a persistence in his desire to accumulate as much bitcoin as he could do.

Of course, if he had been able to lump sum buy or buy bitcoin earlier rather than later, then he might have had been able to accumulate more bitcoin at a faster rate, yet the fact of the matter is that so many normal people struggle to ongoingly have money to invest, and more likely scenarios involve guys who are just ongoingly taking from their income (and from their discretionary income) in order to figure out how aggressive they are able to invest into bitcoin without overdoing it.. .

and yeah, of course, the examples that I gave can be adjusted for whatever might happen to be our own particular income level.


Of course investing is built on a premise of deferred gratification (deferred consumption), yet there is still a balance that each of us has to try to reach depending on a variety of our personal circumstances.  If we do not spend any money on anything except the absolute necessities, then maybe we might suffer in a variety of ways in our social lives, and we also might have responsibilities to others, such as friends and families.

I am not opposed to the idea of greatly cutting out consumption, yet we still have to realize that even if we take care of our basic expenses, there may be ways to cut back on some of our expenses, yet sometimes some of our spending actually causes us to be more productive, so we have to be careful regarding cutting back too much, and maybe if we live in a bad neighborhood and if we wear used clothes, we might have more difficulties getting ahead because frequently we have to be liked and/or to present well in order to gain access to some limited resources, whether it is jobs or whether it might be getting invited to parties that might allow us to properly network and perhaps lead to more opportunities.


Some young people may well be better off to gain certain skills, knowledge and/or experiences while they are younger and that may lead to better employment options and/or opportunities as compared with a person who had already worked his whole life.

Also, some older folks might be better off to retrain and to get into some other kind of work, even though it might cost money to do that.


You cannot assume that everyone is at the same stage, even though surely there can be some commonality with younger people who might be first moving away from home and starting from whatever social circles that they have, but then there can be a certain amount of baggage that comes from folk who might have had been working for a while already, and some have already been trying to invest, and maybe some have made better progress than others.  You are preaching to the choir in terms fo my own preference that guys figure out ways to build various life and/or employment skills at younger ages, and bitcoin is merely one part of that, yet there can be aspects of bitcoin that conflict with wherever a person might have had previously thought that he is going, yet when he comes across bitcoin, then bitcoin might have had helped him to change plans or even created conflict in regards to what kind of profession that he might pursue, in the even that he is a young  person still trying to decide what is going to be his profession.


Bitcoin is still a relatively new asset class, so people have to figure out how much time, energy and/or value that they might choose to put into bitcoin versus something else, and they might already have other investments.

Of course, even if we assume that many people have not taken adequate measures to invest prior to hearing about bitcoin, yet we cannot completely presume the status of other investments that bitcoin newbies might have in the beginning and some of the juggling that they might have to make in terms of considering bitcoin as compared with other assets that they have or as compared with other assets that they might invest into.  I am not referring to fucking around with shitcoins, even though surely there are plenty of folks who get distracted into shitcoins, especially if they might be starting without much or any other investments.


Yes, of course, holding your own bitcoin should be the goal, yet people may well not start holding their own keys.  They might work their way up to such a status, and it may well take some time for them to get to a point in which they are holding an overwhelming majority of their bitcoin.. such as greater than 90% of their holdings is self-custody.. yet there are a lot of people who might not even know the difference between owning bitcoin and holding it with a third party or buying exposure to bitcoin through a bitcoin ETF or by owning something like Microstrategies.


Historically bitcoin has provided the most profits, and sure it could continue to be the best risk-adjusted investment, yet bitcoin's future price performance is not even close to being guaranteed.


You are flip flopping.  You said that there is no reason to consume and then now you are saying to NOT invest all of your discretionary income in bitcoin.  


It is unclear what you are saying here.

Maybe you could give an example of what you mean.   We also know that if we describe a hypothetical person, then that hypothetical person might not capture a variety of circumstances, so it might be good to compare one hypothetical person to another, especially when you seem to be saying more than one thing and almost contradicting what you said in the first part of your post.


I think that people with age and/or health considerations could still categorize themselves as an investor if they are planning to have an investment timeline of 4-10 years (meaning less than 10 years)..

I think that anyone coming into bitcoin with less than a 4 year timeline is trading rather than investing, even though surely some folks might come into bitcoin with less than a 4 year timeline, but then change their mindset after spending some time investing into bitcoin and learning further about it.

I think that some folks might come to bitcoin with greater than a 4 year investment timeline or even greater than a 10 year investment timeline, but sometimes life circumstances might force them out of their position, even if they had intended to be in bitcoin for a longer period of time.


That does not sound smart to me.  Bitcoin has proven itself as a good thing to own, which is likely going to continue to be true in 10-15 years from now and thereafter, so even if you may have done a lot of the accumulation of things right, and you accumulated bitcoin for two cycles and then maybe you waited another cycle before you started to contemplate selling, and then you sold most or all of your bitcoin, then what are you selling them for?  

Where you going to put that money?  At that point you are planning to buy back, especially if you are selling upon an ATH?


Using a loan is a form of front loading an investment, and sure there are risks that the BTC price will go down rather than up during the term of the loan, so it is likely best that the person taking the loan has means to pay the loan without expecting the BTC price to go up.

I am able to get this report in before today's time cut-off point.

100k,JayJuanGee,584,126625,2025-09-10

While a person is building up his back up funds, he is not necessarily going to be able to completely separate out emergency funds only, so he likely has to be more flexible, since all kinds of expenses or even miscalculations could end up taking place in which the guy does not have any other back up funds besides what he was trying to keep as his emergency funds, so his only choice might be whether to tap into his bitcoin or to tap into his emergency funds, and I would think that tapping into emergency funds would be the better route.

You are correct that it could take a year or more to get emergency funds to add up to 3 months of expenses, and if they get tapped into then they have to be replaced, but it might take even longer to build them up, and surely guys might sometimes have imbalances in regards to what kinds of back up funds they have and how their bitcoin is growing in the beginning - yet if they are growing their bitcoin investment and not building and/or maintaining enough back up funds, then they are putting their bitcoin at risk.. . .which may well mean that they have to consider if their might be ways that they can increase their discretionary income by increasing their income and/or cutting their expenses.

Yeah.. that is pretty graphic, and almost impossible to survive, even if there were medics on the spot because it looks like an artery was hit.

abaeze needs to figure out his discretionary income first - that is how much money is left after taking care of us basic expenses.

Sure it is possible to just pick random amounts and then it all works out, but many folks are not going to be served by such a gambling kind of an approach.

It is true that some expenses are more basic than others, so sometimes discretionary income could change based on our categorizing of our expenses whether our expenses are basic or discretionary.. If our expenses are basic, then we account for those first.

Once we know our discretionary income then we can potentially allocate some of that discretionary income or even all of it to bitcoin investing, since if we have determined that it is discretionary income, then that means that we can do whatever we want with it including consume, invest and/or hold it as back up funds, yet if we make mistakes, then we might end up having to unduly suffer because of our mistakes, which is part of the reason for investing in the future and also another reason to create and maintain back up funds.

There is no exact formula, yet if we make mistakes and we do not have enough of a cash back up or if we invest too much or too little into bitcoin, then there would likely be consequences for our mistakes.

Getting to the territory of bettable... meaning I will bet you that all of the 2024 daily trade-weighted prices are knocked off of the table within the next 9 days.

1 Billion is 1,000x higher than a million.

The article is talking about $1 billion per BTC.. not $1 million per BTC...

I think that it is possible for bitcoin to get to 1 billion per coin.. and to absorb close to all of the monetary premium.. but that would be $0.10 (10¢) per satoshi.  Right now you can buy close to 900 satoshis for a dollar.. so that is right around a 9,000x difference between today's price and such anticipated future price in the event that 1 bitcoin were to go up to $1 billion.

The timeline seems to soon for me, and like a catastrophe would have to happen if such $1 billion per bitcoin were to play out so soon (merely 13 years from now).... since i would be thinking 50-200 years for such a scenario olf bitcoin reaching $1 billion per coin to possibly play out.

I am surely not going to proclaim that I know the answers to whatever questions that I throw out there since frequently there is going to be personal tailoring that helps each of us to figure out our own balances in regards to both our bitcoin investment and also any of our implementations of our cashflow management practices.  I have made plenty of my own mistakes over the years, and sure sometimes we might not realize the impact of our mistakes for several years down the road, yet we cannot go back and change our priorities, or even expect that there is are perfect answers, since most likely there are balances and getting matters directionally correct while we might tweak our courses of action from time to time.


I don't know where I can help any further.  I stated my concerns about how you are looking at the matter, and I don't really believe in trying to trade something like bitcoin, since tend to suggest that guys focus on accumulation through buying until they get enough or more than enough which it can take while to get to such status of having enough or more than enough.

I also consider selling to not be a good accumulation strategy, even though I would consider that if you thinking that the market and the price are getting overheated, then you might want to slow down in buying and then just let your cash build up during those times for the price to dip, even though you would run the risk of getting it wrong and the price goes up rather than down, yet I would consider that the problem of having to buy at a higher price to be less of a problem than having had sold an then the price goes up, especially if you already know that your goal is to accumulate more bitcoin.. .


I still don't claim to understand your squigglies.. and yeah, the price could break out in either direction.. yet if we are still in a bull market, it is likely to break out to the upside, and sometimes we don't know when the bull market is over until it is 3-6 months after it is already over.. at least that has been my own personal experience in past cycles, and I would not be surprised if I end up in a similar situation this time around, even though my own behavior is largely holding through the ups and downs, except I had considered that I reached overaccumulation status in late 2014.. even though I kept accumulating through 2015 and 2016.

It does seem that persons who reach overaccumulation status are in a better position to start to sell some of their bitcoin, but yeah, frequently mistakes can be made in regards to when overaccumulation status is reached. 

My own ways of assessing over accumulation status has changed through the years, so I am not sure if there is necessarily one way of figuring out what your own numbers might be, since your over accumulation status numbers would be tailored to your financial and psychological circumstances.


I figured that you had more ins and outs rather than just buying and sitting on the BTC that you bought, yet still overall there are several of us who likely made mistakes along the way, and may well have had ended up with fewer bitcoin due to some of those mistakes or even not considering that we were making any mistakes.


Sometimes a job can be convenient, yet at a certain point the numbers might not add up or there might be inconveniences in maintaining the job that may contribute to a parting of the ways.  Sometimes also the medical insurance or some other perks of employment might keep some folks from wanting to give up their job... yet at the same time, I think that my earlier numbers that I showed through the sustainable withdrawals tool also show that if you reach your income level or even multiples higher than your current income number that you can start to provide to yourself in a sustainable (perpetual) way, then you might well consider that you have enough of a financial cushion to either completely cut your tie to your regular job or perhaps to attempt to cut back your hours.


If you have sufficiently investigated into the "business" then using 1/3 of your BTC may well be reasonable diversification, yet at the same time, don't get distracted by nominal value - especially since the dollar has been rapidly debasing in value - especially even more rapidly since March 2020.. but still I get your point that the income could be sufficiently high and a different way of getting money that allows you to potentially quit your job.. It also seems that some folks will purposefully go into other kinds of income streams so that they are not totally dependent on bitcoin, yet it also potentially raises fewer red flags if you have money coming from other sources (besides bitcoin), in the event that you might start to sustainably cash out from whatever your remaining bitcoin balance might be... that is if you need to generate any other income from your bitcoin..  I will concede that sometimes there is value in letting your bitcoin continue to ride and then to draw income from other places (other than your bitcoin), which seems, in part, to be what you are doing in regards to putting 1/3-ish of your bitcoin stash into a likely inferior asset/investment..


Yep I sold my BCH (aka bcash) around that price too (on average).. I had some sell below 0.1 and then I had others sell in the upper 0.2s.