My today's:

1) Split set (40/45)
2) slow set (25) (& lunges)
3) regular set (40) (& lunges)

100k,JayJuanGee,531,119070,2025-07-19

For sure, I was not suggesting that the mere fact that it is harder (and less likely to be as great of returns), each of us still are going to be advantaged by getting started and being as aggressive as we are able to be without overdoing it, and part of the reason is within your description that people remain ignorant and even seemingly purposefully ignorant about bitcoin.

Therefore, anyone just getting started today is till going to likely benefit greatly from the asymmetric information of his knowing about bitcoin while others are either ignorant or fighting against the information.. with bitcoin ignorance, naysaying, fence sitting, etc. etc..   


I think that you are contradicting yourself. .especially when you suggest that guys will "definitely reach their investment goal."

We need to remember that there is both execution risk and there are risks with the asset itself (like attacks that might end up being successful)

It seems to me that "we" are not in a "proper" range in order to go sideways. 

So betting on sideways seems like a losing bet.

Out of the other two possibilities, surely I prefer up (as with many HODLers), yet sometimes when any kind of pausening of up takes too long, there might be some down involved.. but who knows?  So far we have had our down reaching to down to $115.7k, which is ONLY 6% down from the so far $123,236 top.

In the short-term, it is almost like a coin flip with perhaps a slight favorability to UP rather than DOWN since we seem to still be in a bull market, last I checked.


Yeah. What's up like that?

You don't have too many duties in these here parts, and then you missed taking a swig at $123.1k?

 


I have to start to remind myself when I go out to look more closely in the liquor section to see if i can spot anything that might be worthy of getting some of my participation in these possible "shot funzies."   I am not much of a drinker, but a shot-related to bitcoin price performance might not be a bad thing, and not as difficult as pushups.. even though I am not doing whole shots if it is gong to burn my throat or cause me more than minimal health damage.. but I might do a thimble size shot of Everclear if I am able to find the 190 proof one... I am not sure.. i will have to see if I can find it first... which helps to actually go in to a liquor store or some liquor section of a larger store..

You seem to be reading too much into the idea of being aggressive.

Our level of aggressiveness or whimpiness is a choice, and there are ways to be aggressive without overdoing it, and surely the more aggressive we are, the more we run the risk of overdoing it in one way or another.. yet I doubt that being aggressive is a negative because we are able to tailor it to our own aspirations, and try to keep in mind if we might be pushing the boundaries too much in terms of starting to have negative consequences associated with our level of aggressiveness.

We can choose bitcoin and/or we can choose other places to put our time, energy and money (that is discretionary income).

If we have a lot of confidence in bitcoin, we might invest aggressively, and if we don't have much confidence, then we will choose to invest less aggressively (perhaps even whimpily).  Surely some folks choose not to invest into bitcoin at all, which seems a pretty big mistake, even though around 99% of the world's population are no coiners or maybe low coiners or maybe precoiners.

We can also choose to have other investments, and folks might come to bitcoin while already having other investments, so there situation might be a bit different from someone who is both brand new to bitcoin and brand new to investing.  We choose our position size and our approach and maybe we reassess at various times along the way, and then 4-10 years or longer, we may well reassess again and figure out if we need to change any of our strategies... if we might advance from accumulation stage in to maintenance stage and then perhaps later into sustainable withdrawal.

Guys can invest up to 100% of their discretionary income if they choose, and I agree with you that they might be over doing it, but if they have emergency fujnds and reserves in place (in case they make any mistakes about their expenses) then there is nothing wrong with being as aggressive as they can be without over doing it.

5% to 25% of discretionary funds invested in bitcoin is pretty whimpy... even though that is a choice.

Many times folks will talk about investing 5% to 25% of their total income.. so if we are talking about total income we might be coming to a different number, and of course, measuring from the discretionary income is more precise in terms of figuring out the extent to which we might be considering our approach to be aggressive or whimpy.

Sometimes we want to know how much we are investing in terms of our income or in terms of our expenses in order to potentially estimate how much money we might need (want) in order to get to fuck you status or to be able to have a target income level for our sustainable withdrawal practices (to figure out the amount).. which might relate to the standard of living that we already have or perhaps some standard of living that we might aspire to, and sometimes guys can become unrealistic or maybe even overly abstract in regards to their expectations.. which then makes it harder to achieve goals that have not been established with any kind of grounding and/or basis.


Of course, guys can have whatever goals that they want to have, yet I would suggest that a meaningful goal would be to potentially increase our options in life, including to replace our income in full or in part.  There is a presumption that the bitcoin holdings (investment) would be in profits, especially if we me might be looking 4-10 years or further into the future, since most likely the amount that we had put in will be much smaller than the amount that we are expecting to be able to take out. 

In other words, merely striving for "profits" seems quite small potatoes and causes many errors when guys are engaging in various cashing out of some or all of their bitcoin merely because they are able to realize "profits."

It seems that an investment empowers us in regards to our options and the various ways that we might choose to draw upon it either as some kind of exclusive income or perhaps more commonly as a means to supplement other kind of income that we might have developed by the time we get to the point of withdrawing from our bitcoin, hopefully withdrawing in sustainable ways rather than merely spending time building bitcoin to then cash in all of the bitcoin at once. 


I have trouble with this idea of "huge" emergency funds and reserve funds. When we are in the early stages  of building our bitcoin investment, the emergency fund needs to be adequate, and perhaps somewhere in the ballpark of similar size to the bitcoin investment fund, until such point as both the emergency fund and the bitcoin investment reaches 3 months of expenses.. and surely the Bitcoin investment will start to outgrow the emergency fund. and of course, having reserve funds also give grater flexibility, so sometimes the reserve funds might start to get to be a lot of money depending on the reasons for establishing it and then there could also be questions regarding if it needs to be in cash or if it might be kept in some other form...and of course, if the form is changed then there can be questions of it volatility and its liquidity.


Emergency funds and reserve funds are built up from discretionary income.

Of course, each month people would likely spend from their discretionary funds before they tap into their reserve funds or emergency funds...  yet if the run out of discretionary funds then they would draw from their emergency funds and/or reserve funds and presumptively drawing from their reserve funds before drawing from their emergency funds, and the emergency funds would be the last level of protection before tapping into bitcoin holdings.

Goals surely might be set within these areas, and surely it seems that one of the goals of a bitcoiner would be to build up his bitcoin holdings, yet he may well have some other competing interests in his life, so he has to figure out his priorities in regards to his bitcoin accumulation as compared with the other competing interests that he has, and sometimes he might need to try to increase his discretionary income in order to attempt to accomplish his interests within his preferred timeline.


In our earliest times of investing it tends to be easier to increase our bitcoin holdings in a short period of time, such as doubling it... Yet the longer that we are investing, the more it becomes apparent that each time that we buy bitcoin, then the amount bought is ONLY adding to our bitcoin size in small ways, and even sometimes difficult to measure ways.. so surely if we are investing into bitcoin by buying persistently, consistently, regularly ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively, there may not be BIG differences  between if we buy $100 more worth of bitcoin at $96k or at $121k... Sure it is nice to be able to buy bitcoin cheaper, but at the same time, it may not add much value to our whole bitcoin accumulation practice if we are fucking around trying to figure out if there might be a dip or not.

So then if we had largely been attempting to buy as aggressive as we can from the beginning of our investment, and even perhaps trying to front load our bitcoin investment in the beginning, rather than fucking around trying to strategize dips that might not happen, then after 1 or 2 cycles, we will likely see that we had all kinds of bitcoin purchases at various prices, yet even our higher priced purchases, still ended up being quite profitable, especially 1-2 cycles later down the road when we might be assessing if we got enough, but and we will likely see that 1-2 cycles down the road, we well be wishing that we had been able to buy the bitcoin 1-2 cycles earlier, since the BTC prices are likely going to be higher 1-2 cycles down the road.

Of course, if we are able to reach a status of having enough or more than enough BTC, then we might not be accumulating as many bitcoin at some point down the road, such as 1-2 cycles later.

The whole idea of discretionary money (income) is that you can do whatever you like with it.  You can be responsible or irresponsible.  It is the money that you have left after your expenses.

Sure some folks invest and others do not.  Some folks buy high quality products and others buy low quality products.

We should not be trying to tell others how to spend their money, even though some ways of living are more meaningful, and some folks don't even believe in investing, and so they may well end up working all of their lives.. so there re likely consequences for the choices that any of su make.

It is likely going to take longer to build your holdings these days as compared with bitcoin historically, even 5 years ago, but it is not like we can turn back the clock or identify some bitcoin 2.0 to divert our capital into.  Bitcoin remains amongst the best, if not the best place to put time, energy and value, so in several senses, each of us just need to do what we can within our means to continue to accumulate bitcoin through ongoing buying techniques and perhaps from time to time make some reassessments regarding the extent to which we might need to change any aspects of our ongoing and persistent bitcoin accumulation through ongoing buying strategies.


I was not making my own systems of sustainable withdrawal, even if I have some ways of framing sustainable withdrawal that seems to be particularly applicable to sustainable bitcoin withdrawal.

Traditional sustainable withdrawal system have tended to allow 4% annual sustainable withdrawal with assumptions that on average your portfolio would perform at leas 4% or better.

I merely applied that to bitcoin and used the 200-WMA as the measure of value, since the 200-WMA tends to represent bottom prices, and also tends to ongoingly go up (and surely has way less volatility as compared with BTC spot prices). Another great thing about the 200-WMA is that it is a delayed indicator, which can give some confidence in regards to continuing to withdraw, yet if the spot BTC price starts to perform poorly in its relation to the 200-WMA, then we can maybe anticipate that the 200-WMA is going to start to go up more slowly in the future and/or that we might want to adjust our withdrawal rate based on the relationships of BTC prices as compared with the 200-WMA.. and it works in both directions to withdraw more slowly when the BTC prices are low as compared with the 200-WMA or to withdraw some months in advance if the BTC price is playing out as much higher than the 200-WMA.  I discuss these various considerations in my sustainable withdrawal thread.

you are describing BlackRock buying bitcoin for it's ETF - not for its treasury.  There is a difference.

Even though I was arguing with the way nikola22 seems to be blindly accepting that 10% diversification into shitcoins "won't hurt," ultimately these are personal discretionary matters, and I would agree that 10% is not really that big of a deal in the whole scheme of things - especially since so many shitcoiners go way beyond 10% and they have so many troubles to actually limit themselves to 10% since there are so many shitcoins and so many talking points that guys could end up getting lured into so then to start to think that maybe they can allocate "a little bit more" into whatever shitcoin is luring them in through talking points or even through short-term performance, since there surely can be extended periods that various shitcoins may well end up outperforming bitcoin.

Yet in the end guys can do what they want, and surely even if MSTR starts to screw around with shitcoins, there could be problems with that, yet if it is merely a small portion of their overall holdings.

I know valuations change too.. so if right now MS
TR is somewhere in the ballpark of $110 to $130 Billion, then $5 billion would only be 5% of their holdings, so even if it seems a bit distracted, it might be distracted within reasonable bounds.. and there could be various shitcoins that might be considered as a trade rather than investment, yet surely any allocation into shitcoins does show a bit of distraction including their potentially questioning if there might be something else or maybe they just want to have space to explore and something like 5% might not be overly exposed - getting back to nikola22's provoking assertion about "it won't hurt" - which I don't really disagree in any material way, so I am likely mostly arguing semantics.


Sure.  MSTRs ongoing accumulation of bitcoin puts them into a position that they are likely to outgrow those other higher ranked companies even without buying more bitcoin, yet their buying more bitcoin and also using other people's money to buy more bitcoin, puts them into a place in which they are going to highly exceed those higher ranking companies, unless the other companies change their tunes and/or even decide to get aggressive in their bitcoin accumulation.


It is probably good for you to have had learned the lesson relatively early, even though you took some losses with your shitcoin involvement.

Historically, there have been a lot of folks that get distracted into shitcoins, and surely some of them learn their lesson and they begin to focus more on (or maybe completely on) bitcoin.  Shitcoins will continue to be distracting, which justifies part of my suggestion to make sure to limit shitcoin involvement to no more than 10% of your bitcoin holdings, and try not to cheat in regards to your ways of structuring such shitcoin involvement in the event that you cannot resist shitcoins.  I am not even recommending involvement in shitcoins at all, yet I am suggesting if guys cannot resist getting involved in shitcoins, then to limit their involvement to no more than 10% of the size of their bitcoin involvement, which will at least limit the damage and allow them to mostly stay focused on the prize  (namely bitcoin), and sure, if they happen to find some shitcoins that outperform bitcoin in the short or long term, then I don't have any problem accepting those sorts of happenings if they were miraculously able to identify such outperforming shitcoins. 

I like my own chart, ideas and rationale behind the ideas better, even though surely there can be a methodology behind any of the systems that might not exactly be understood in the abstract.  Furthermore, my numbers are not really much different from what his seem to be.

By mid 2035, I am anticipating anywhere between 1.5 BTC to 3.6 BTC to be able to enter the threshold of fuck you status (right now, as I type this post I consider 15.987 to be entry-level fuck you status for an income of $80k per year), and surely it can be difficult to know with any kind of confidence, and so surely we would want to error on the side of having more and having a bit of a cushion, even though we also might want to be careful not to overdo our cushion level, since sometimes if we might have reached a status of enough or more than enough then there might need to be a reason why there needs to be a cushion that goes beyond a certain level - including even considering the possibility that doubling the number so that it should be abundantly clear that the cushion is enough.

Projecting into the future is one thing, and then getting to the future point (in this case 10 years down the road) to see if the numbers still pan out or whether they need to be adjusted in one direction or another.


It can be a little bit confusing regarding if talking in today's dollars or future dollars.  Of course, 2035 dollars are likely going to be worth about 30% to 40% of today's dollars, and with my own charts I try to presume that we are talking in today's dollsrs and that bitcoin will appreciate in such a way that it will make up for the ongoing debasement of the dollar.

I also go by how much wealth is needed to be able to passively withdraw from it while maintaining the principle, which means it would be perpetual, yet of course anyone who gets into a life ending kind of a situation (age or health related), then surely he would be at liberty to deplete the principle.


I thought that you had some other income such as pension and social security.

I doubt that it is fair to count home in regards to your potentially quasi-liquid weath even though we know that equity loans can be drawn out against it or it could be sold and then downsized.

It seems that if the bitcoin is allowed to grow rather than drawn from, then 15% now might be enough in 5 years to constitute 60% or more.. .that has bee one of the great things about bitcoin in the past 14-ish years.  It has greatly outperformed other assets and greatly outperformed in its growth as compared with other assets, and I don't see any reason that it will not continue to outperform other assets in regards to its growth in value.

Another thing is that if your withdraw from your liquid assets in proportion of their size, then they would shrink at similar rates but bitcoin would still outperform other assets.

I don't think it is a good idea to have your 401k in bonds.. it probably would be better to have it diversified, but yeah, I know you love cash so much, but being in cash his not really a good idea, even if you are drawing down on the asset.


Strange.

Chowles was not arrested until 2022 for actions that he took in 2014 (to steal the 50 BTC), and then he plead guilty and was sentenced to 66 months in prison, but then it is not clear if he still has the 50 BTC.


Sure.  Quite a few aspects of the future is uncertain, and if you wonder why so many people have not sold their bitcoin already, it is partly because bitcoin's investment thesis is not getting weaker, even though in the last 10 years it's 200-WMA has moved up from right around $216 to $50,042, which is right around 232x.  And you think that bitcoin cannot do another 8.5x in the next 10-ish years?  Sure anything can happen, but 8.5x does not seem that difficult to achieve, and that is part of the reason that bitcoin remains such a great asymmetric bet to the upside. Meaning that you do not necessarily need to put a lot of value into it in order to experience the potential upside benefits.

Of course, with $1 million BTC prices in 2035, we are likely referring to spot prices, and the numbers are not really much different..The same asymmetric upside principles apply.  You can try to stay neutral, but you likely only seem a fool if you know about bitcoin and you fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP within your own means.

I also understand that past performance does not guarantee future results, but at the same time, maybe you need to study a bit about bitcoin if you really are considering that 8.5x in bitcoin in the next 10-ish years is any kind of major stretch of imagination.  We might even get 8.5x in the next 6 to 12 months.. . or alternatively within the next cycle (less than 5 years from now for the next cycle to complete). so it is not really that outrageous to consider $1 million or more by mid-2035..

Even though I might not disagree with you, your description of how to consider bitcoin comes off as a bit strange the way that you describe it. 

I don't really disagree  with the idea of building up wealth in bitcoin, and then when the wealth level gets up to a certain level it can start to be used to live off of, yet if a guy has other sources of income besides his bitcoin wealth then the bitcoin income (wealth) may well supplement his other kinds of income, to the extent that he might choose to draw from his bitcoin or just live completely off his other income and even build up his bitcoin holdings from his work-related income..

It seems to me that people are able to get to a sizable level of bitcoin wealth that they are able to live off of their bitcoin for the rest of their lives without working, yet at the same time, if they choose to work, then they could live off of that earned income first, and maybe continue to build up their bitcoin from that earned income in the event that they might want even more bitcoin to build up since the more bitcoin they accumulate, then the higher their level of sustained withdrawal could be from their bitcoin holdings at any time that they might chose not to work or might not need to earn income from work in order to sustain their chosen lifestyle - and sure hopefully if they are at a point in their lives of withdrawing from their bitcoin holdings, then they would be able to do it in a sustainable way, which largely means that their bitcoin is gaining in value at a faster rate than they are withdrawing from it.

Some of my thoughts relate to how Adam might be engaging in conduct to make it seems that he is not Satoshi...

"Satoshi would never to that."  right?


right?




rrrrrrrriiiiiigggggghhhhhhttttt?


I agree that limiting the investment into shitcoins as compared with bitcoin to something like 10% is acceptable, yet I don't agree with your assertion that suggests that there is any thing helpful in fucking around with shitcoins.. since you are proclaiming that "it won't hurt" to have up to 10% in various shitcoins.

Of course, you can do whatever you want, but the idea of diversification for the sake of it, seems pretty retarded to me. especially if you might have some clues about what bitcoin is and unless you have some kind of specific reasons to hold any of those shitcoins..

You quoted my post badly, again, but I fixed it in this post.

Of course, you can do whatever you like in terms of holding back value in order to buy the dip that may or may end up not happening.  I think that I already explained well enough in regards to my ideas why newbies should focus on ongoing buying rather than strategizing for dips that might not happen.

You seem to be inclined towards trading rather than investing, since if you have a 4-10 year or longer investment timeline, then surely it might not make much difference if you bought at $123k or at $95k, even if $95k were to be possible.. we don't know, and we don't even know if sub $110k is possible, either.  So if you are waiting for dips that might not happen, you are gambling and potentially failing/refusing to prepare for up with your over-preparation for down..

But again, do what you like.,. it is your money and you have to live with the consequences of your actions, even if you think you have some kind of a trade angle (or buying on dip angle) figured out.

Even if you are mentioning 4-10 years or longer as a possible timeline to hold your bitcoin, you still seem to be thinking about bitcoin in terms of a trade rather than an investment since it seems to make little to no sense to build up a bitcoin investment in bitcoin and then transition into selling all of it.. but yeah, people have difficulties considering that they would continue to hold their bitcoin investment through their life, even if they might also be selling parts of it from time to time.


I think that the idea is that if you believe that you need $80k per year to live comfortably, and you have assessed that you need a minimum of 16 BTC to start to employ such practice of withdrawing $80k per year from your bitcoin, yet you want to be a little bit more comfortable that you have enough and that you are not making a mistake, so instead of employing the withdrawal strategy at 16 BTC, you want to make sure that you have 25% extra.. and so you wait until you have 20 BTC to start to employ your withdrawal strategy of $80k per year, and in essence you are never going to run out of bitcoin, even if you adjust the withdrawal up 7% each year, so year 1 (right now) you withdraw $80k, and then year 2, 2026 you withdraw $85.6k, and then year 3 2027, you withdraw $91.6k, and then year 4, 2028 you withdraw $98k, and since you are in an overaccumulatoin status, and you chose an appropriate withdrawal amount, your bitcoin is gaining in dollar value faster than the amount that you withdraw from it, and since you purposefully choose to wait to start your withdrawal until you had at least 25% more than your threshold level, you also have an extra cushion of BTC that is adding to your bitcoin growing in dollar value faster than you are withdrawing from it.

Of course, you are responsible for your calculations and to make sure that you don't screw it up, and perhaps if bitcoin seems to be growing in value slower than you expected, then you slow down your withdrawal level and/or otherwise reassess the situation.


Traders think in terms of exit plan, yet of course, the employment of sustainable withdrawal is still a form of exit plan, but you really never need to exit, you just manage your withdrawals and make sure that you have enough bitcoin to start to have an income that is pretty much perpetual as long as you have accomplished your calculations accurately.


We are still in a position to frontrun bigger players, especially because it takes them time to come around to bitcoin and to invest into it... Yet surely more and more bigger players are getting into bitcoin, so yeah, it becomes harder and harder to say that we front ran BIGGER players if we are still not getting in.


Surely there could be guys who are selling up to 10% of their BTC stash every time it doubles (and they don't have to wait for a doubling, they could sell 1% every time it goes up 10%), and maybe they started doing that several years ago.  As long as BTC continues going up, they are never going to run out of coins, and BTC keeps gaining in value more than the amounts of their sales.  This is price based sustainable withdrawal.

They could also employ time based sustainable withdrawal.. for example to sell 10% of the dollar value of their stash every year based on the 200-WMA value.. and the 200-WMA is quite likely going up more than 10% per year. 

They could employ modified versions of price-based and time-based sustainable withdrawal.


Hopefully you are buying and building and not just hodling.. but hey that is your choice..

Guys frequently make mistakes of selling too much too soon and they also make mistakes of failing to continue to accumulate.  From my perspective HODL is good once you have enough or more than enough, but if you have not come close to that level of BTC accumulation, then you need to keep buying bitcoin consistently, persistently, ongoingly, regularly and perhaps even aggressively.. and don't get too worried about BTC price, especially in your first cycle of accumulating and maybe even in your first two cycles, depending on how much a guy had been able to accumulate in his first cycle of buying.


If you are still in your BTC accumulation phase, selling (or trying to trade) is not a good strategy to assure that you are continuing to accumulate.  It also knocks you out of the accumulation mindset and puts you into a waiting mindset, which is likely not going to serve your abilities to accumulate enough or more than enough BTC.


Of course, you can do whatever you want, but there tends to be quite a bit of value in continuing to buy BTC rather than just HODLing, especially when you are in your first cycle or two of accumulating bitcoin.


Smart money is also not smart from the very beginning.  Smart money has to learn how to be smart and also build up their BTC holdings and their wealth through smartness.. and hopefully not fucking around trading and trying to believe that they are smarter than they actually are... but at the same time, quite a bit of smart money made a lot of mistakes prior to becoming smart.


There are ways to invest into bitcoin to lessen the emotions, and sure we are all likely to feel some emotions and even uncertainties about if we should do something when the BTC price is running a lot in one direction or another.  I frequently have considered that if we put our finances in good order then good emotions will follow from that.

Up or down?  Why not both?

100k,JayJuanGee,530,118920,2025-07-18

Of course different kinds of funds are going to have more flexibility in the kinds of funds that are available, and I recall some past funds that would only allow bitcoin investment to go up to 20% or something like that... perhaps it was Fidelity funds back when they were one of the only ones offering such bitcoin funds.

Whether they have restrictions or not, it is likely folks would vary in their allocation amounts, and I had seen some reasonable estimates that they could end up getting 10% to 15% allocations to bitcoin on average, yet I would think it would take a while to get up to those kinds of average amounts for the various retirement funds (namely 401ks).    Some of the 401ks have employer matching funds and they also might have default allocations, so a person might have to go into their settings to customize or even go into some advance settings  to be able to get access to more risky funds such as bitcoin (and maybe they would have some shitcoins in the funds, too?).


I think that some of the resistance relates to some of the patronizing tendencies of law makers to "protect normies" from themselves.  It is not an unfounded concern to have some protections, even though frequently freedoms are taken away in the name of "protection."

I agree that the main focus is the $5k funds, but the $50 per week is not an automatic decision that he should divert all of it to BTC in contrast to keeping some of it or all of it still going to his historical investments.  Nonetheless, I do consider that the most compelling answer would be to transition the $50 per week towards bitcoin - yet there could be some unknown facts that might cause him to weigh the considerations differently, such as if he were to have tax advantages with the account or if his employer were matching the funds, and surely I had not mentioned those kinds of possibilities that could exist with the other investments that he had been doing.


Of course, there are odds that the BTC price will not dip that far, and if the BTC price keeps going up are you going to adjust the prior amounts?  Since you are presetting the amounts, you likely would be setting from our current price or perhaps from the price in which you bought BTC last.. but if the BTC price keeps going up without any of your orders filling, are you just going to keep your buy orders in place.  Right now a 30% dip from here at $118 would take your lowest automatic buy order to somewhere in the $82k price range, which surely seems low from here, but not outside of the realm of what could end up happening.. but yeah there is also a risk that none of your buy orders would get filled, ever.. even the one going down 10% (which is around $106k), and so then you don't have shit for bitcoin, yet at the same time, you have $1,500 i cash that you had not used... By the way, I am maybe using stronger language than I need, and holding back 30% for buying on dips is not totally unreasonable... .


I might have had considered 50% or more for this category, or maybe expediting your DCA portion to be over a shorter time period of a couple of months.. but yeah, these are surely flexible categories, but still good to lock into some commitment because if we give specific facts, you need to employ in a specific way otherwise your plan is not clear (especially when talking about it in forum thread like this one).


Exactly.  If you are specifically that person, you likely have to commit to something, since even non-committing has consequences, so it is likely better to commit, even if like you mentioned previously, some of the money, could be put into some kind of a reserve fund that would then allow considering what to do with that part later, even if it is put into a reserve fund it is held in cash or cash equivalents, unless you actually decide to put it in to some kind of a fund that locks it up for a period of time.


Surely people who have lump sum amounts have more options than people who are completely reliant on their discretionary income.  Of course, some young people, and even some people who have never gotten into any practice of investing, they might not hardly have any lump sum amounts available, and surely I am presuming that even folks without any investments, they still may well have 2- 6 weeks in cash, since there are likely not very many folks who completely operate on $0 in extra money and 100% wait for their paycheck.. and even though surely there are people who live like that, it seems to me that we should at least aspire that we are trying to make sure that we are not that kind of a person in the future, even if we might have had lived that way in the past... just as a basic safe living style, we likely need to try to keep a couple of weeks of cash as our back up and extra funds, even if we might spend 100% of our paychecks within the period that we get them.


That is reasonable, and yeah there can be variance based on the specific financial and psychological facts of that particular person including that in regards to exactly what he chooses to do, he may well want to take into account his 9 personal factors, too.


I have frequently considered that if a guy puts a decently large amount of money into bitcoin at one time or over a short period of time, then he is way more justified (and reasonable) to hold some money back for buying on dips as compared to guys who are not putting in large sums of money at once and who are merely DCAing within their discretionary income on a weekly-ish basis.


A thing with reserves is that they could be for a large variety of things.  1) saving for a new phone computer, 2) saving for a car/motorcycle, 3) buying dips, 4) wife/spouse wants a short vacation in 3 months (maybe overnight or a couple of nights) or maybe it is a fancy dinner or a birthday gift, 4) child wants a bicycle for his/her birthday in 2 months, 5) plumbing/roof needs to be fixed but there is some ability to delay it, but if it is delayed for too long it is going to end up costing more money, and/or 6) other things

Some of the items might have income earning potential, so would likely be a higher priority and some of them might be for luxury goods that might have some flexibility in terms of deciding how much is wanting to be spent on such.

Since the money had not been spent, it can also be used as emergency funds if an emergency happens.
 

Yep.  There is some advantage in spending some times just getting used to what we are doing.. since if we are either new to investing and/or new to bitcoin, we might need to get used to channelling a certain quantity of our discretionary income every week, so just as we are doing it, every week, it may take us several weeks before we start to feel comfortable with the amount that we are spending and that we are still able to meet all of our expenses, even though we are dedicating a certain quantity of money on a weekly basis to go into bitcoin.
 

He is already in a position to be aggressive and has quite a few options beyond what we have discussed, yet if we were to give an example of a newbie to investing, newbie to bitcoin, he might not have as many options, yet he still can start with what he has, and usually the very beginning points involve getting started buying bitcoin through DCA and building up emergency funds.  I hardly see any reason that such beginner needs to get into buying dips and things like that, except maybe to the extent he might want to try to time the potential dips each week... but maybe he is starting out with $50 per week that he has to figure out want to do with and part goes to buying bitcoin and the other part goes to building up his emergency funds.  I see little advantage in further diluting the $50 per week and getting distracted by trying to figure out whether there is a dip or not.. just buy every week, and then may be by the time his emergency funds are in place and a bit of his reserves are in place, then maybe he might have more luxury to hold back some of the value for buying dips... so buying dips does not seems like a very good beginner approach to bitcoin, even though a lot of beginners (maybe even an overwhelming majority of beginners) get distracted into considering that there is some value (to them) to structure their approach in a way that includes trying to buy dips.


Just adding bitcoin to one of their new activities (priorities) seems to be something that many folks need to get used to, since many people (maybe even an overwhelming majority) are already not even used to investing. so adding bitcoin to their lives results in their needing to learn some fundamentals about investing and cashflow management, even though I assume most people have the skills/knowledge level, even if they have not put such skills/knowledge level into practice. they are capable of learning the basic skills for bitcoin investing.
 

Knowing our own limits and working within our own limits remains important to both build a bitcoin investment and strengthen cashflow management and also to not end up screwing it up. No one wants to lose money, yet there still can be ways that they make sure that they are investing from money that they can afford to lose, so then they try to put systems in place that they are investing rather than gambling.


I would suggest that with bitcoin there can be problems selling at a loss as you suggest, but there are also problems selling at a time that is not of your own choosing, even if you might be in profits.

Any of us who might have had come to bitcoin for an investment timeline of 4-10 years or longer, we might spend several years building up our bitcoin holdings, so we might ultimately be in profits on all of our bitcoin and maybe we have even accumulated a year of our expenses into bitcoin, so we are feeling pretty good about our bitcoin holdings, but if we manage our cashflow badly, we might get ourself into a situation where we have might need 3-4 months of expenses, and maybe our bitcoin is the only thing that we have left, and we end up having to dip into our bitcoin, even though we are in profits and maybe they are in considerable profits, yet if we end up having to sell 3-4 months of our expenses from our bitcoin then maybe that reduces our bitcoin stash to 1/2 or 2/3rds of its previous amount, and maybe once we spend those bitcoin (they are in profits - but we did not choose to do it), yet we might have to spend 6 months or more just building back the emergency funds that we should  have had in the first place and we have to spend another 6 months or more trying to build up our bitcoin holdings, and maybe even we end up having to spend more than a year trying to build our bitcoin holdings back up to where they were, and we cannot get them back up to where they were even after several years of trying to build them back.

So my point, is that it is not ONLY selling at a loss that could cause irreversible damages, and sometimes guys fuck themselves over quite greatly by selling too much BTC too soon, and they are even selling within "dollar profits." but they may well never be able to accumulate back the quantity of BTC that they had prior to their having had sold too much BTC too soon.


Even though it worked out for your guy to start aggressively buying during the pump, it is still problematic to invest in that kind of way, and if he is telling you to wait as a no coiner or low coiner, then that also sounds problematic.

It seems better to invest for a while to build up a stack, and sure if you have at least build up a stack then you have at least some bitcoin so that you have some preparation for UP rather than if you don't have any bitcoin or if you are still wanting more bitcoin but instead of buying you are waiting. That seems like a problematic and even a whimpy approach to bitcoin investing..

You seem to be refusing to deal with one of the dip buying scenarios that I attempt to describe in my post, which is some form of systematic dip buying that is already pre-planned.. and sure of course, it has trade offs and might not even be a good idea, yet it surely is not the less systematic and/or gut feeling dip buying scenario that you seem to be describing and even seeming to be suggesting that I was accepting of such a non-systematic dip buying practice.


First: You messed up in your quoting of my earlier post, so I fixed that above.  You could go back and fix your original quoting of my post.

Second. What you describe might work, but really you are dividing 50/50 for buying right away versus buying dips, and that seems way too much to be setting aside for buying dips, especially for anyone early in their bitcoin accumulation phase.

When you guy right away with your DCA every week ($20 in your example), there is is hardly any ambiguity since presumptively you would be buying the $20 worth of bitcoin every week no matter what (as long as you have the $50 available from your discretionary), yet you could still attempt to strategize within the week to buy at cheaper prices - depending on where you are buying (on an exchange presumptively?). 

With dip money, your parameters can be quite varied, and if your parameters are somewhat strict, then your dip buying money would build up until the parameters are fulfilled.  If your parameters are not very strict on the dip buying then maybe you just end up buying $40 nearly every week since the extra $20 might end up getting used rather than building up each week with a new $20 added to the dip buying fund... so sure, devil is in the details whether you need a 5% dip or 10% dip or some other number before some or all of the money in your dip buying fund would be triggered.

Regarding your emergency funds, presumptively you would be using that money to build and/or add to emergency funds, so if your total expenses per month are somewhere in the ballpark of $400, then you would be working to get your emergency funds up to $1,200 (3 months), yet there may not be any need to grow your emergency funds greater than the amount you put into bitcoin, so with your bitcoin investment rate of perhaps up to $40 per week, it would take you right around 30 weeks to get the amount that you invested into bitcoin up to $1,200, and surely if you already have money in some kind of a cash fund (emergency fund - maybe $300 or so at the time you started your bitcoin investment), then maybe it seems reasonable to add $10 per week to your emergency funds yet at the rate of $10 per week (presuming that you are not using the emergency funds), then it still would take you right around 90 weeks to get your emergency funds up to $1,200, which I would consider a potentially reasonable trade off. even without knowing other potentially relevant details of your finances..


Personally, I still consider that it would be better for you to figure out what your dip criteria would be, since if you end up waiting even 6 months, your $20 every week is stacking up and pretty soon you have $520 ($20 X 26) in your dip buying funds, and that money could have had been in bitcoin rather than sitting on the sidelines...and sure, of course, that is your choice to figure out your criteria and the balance that you should be striking.

I have stated many times that guys in their very early stages are likely better off to be buying every single week no matter what, and to be fairly conservative with any money that they are holding back for dip buying.. and even within each week a guy can try to buy the dip within the week but on a certain day if no dip comes he is going to need to just buy with his weekly authorized amount because there is entering into a new week with a new authorized amount coming available for the new week.

Sure, of course, you have to figure out what you believe is the right balance for you, which may or may not end up serving your objectives if you end up making mistakes with it.. but that is on you.


In some sense, if you figure out a weekly budget, or even if you tell yourself that you are going to invest $520 no matter what into bitcoin over then next 6 months, then you can divide that into 26 to get $20 per week.. and you can also tell yourself that you are going to set aside $20 per week for buying dip and $10 per week for putting into your emergency fund, and you could have a tentative goal for where you might be in 6 months and then do the same for the next 6 months (or something similar) and perhaps tweaking your approach from time to time,  etc etc etc..

You also might have some ideas about your expected budget, yet you also might have some expectations that 2-3 times every year, you run into situations where you end up making (or receiving) some kind of a bonus amount of cash coming in and maybe sometimes that is $200 but it could be as large as $1,200, so even if you know that these are irregular kinds of occasions, yet if you already have bitcoin investment systems in place, then you surely would have some abilities to authorized certain large chunks of the bonus amounts to be invested into bitcoin and/or your buying on dips funds, and/or your emergency funds... So surely, guys who already have bitcoin investing systems and even bitcoin buying prioritizing in place, they may well end up identifying some of their future cashflows as being eligible to be plugged into aspects of their bitcoin buying systems.


Maybe if a guy invested $2k into bitcoin at the start of the thread, which would have resulted in nearly 0.03 BTC, and then he would have had been investing $100 per week into bitcoin since February 1 until April 11, 2025 (presuming he keeps investing but the website has not been updated).. Then that would have had been an additional $11.5k invested with 0.2663 BTC accumulated, so that would be a total of $13.5k invested and nearly 0.3 BTC accumulated. 

By the way currently 0.3 BTC would have a 200-WMA value of $15k and a spot price value of nearly $36k... so surely not a bad place to be for someone who might want to continue to invest at $100 per week and perhaps invest additional amounts from time to time, if his discretionary income permits. 

Wealth building can take a decently long time, even with bitcoin, yet a person who might have started to fairly aggressively accumulate bitcoin at the beginning of this thread (even though it was seeming to be close to a then top) would be in a fairly good position right now in terms of his bitcoin stash after a little less than 2.5 years accumulating.


You give the advice that a gambler would give, and hopefully we are not treating our bitcoin investment like a form of gambling.

Sure, you can use reserve funds to buy bitcoin, yet buying bitcoin is not an emergency, so use of emergency funds to buy bitcoin is irresponsible and failing to exercise discipline over our own classification of funds. 

Surely it could be the case that we have misclassified our emergency funds, and they are really reserve funds, then sure we could use reserve funds for buying bitcoin, yet we still might need to consider how much emergency funds that we minimally need to have in order to not put ourselves in a risky position, and the extent that we do not have sufficient emergency funds, then our bitcoin may well be serving as our emergency funds, which may well end up resulting in our having to use/spend bitcoin at a time that is not completely of our own choosing, since it would be the only funds that we have available.. which surely could be problematic especially if we end up having to sell on some kind of a dip or some kind of a stagnant price location where we should be buying bitcoin rather than selling it.. so sometimes guys who have put themselves in those kinds of situations end up getting greatly recked due to circumstances that might have largely been due to their own causing (their sloppiness).

Don't get me wrong, there could be some rare circumstances where a guy might know that he has good sized income coming in within a week or two, and it is pretty much guaranteed to come through, and he knows that he can replace whatever emergency funds that he uses with such income that is coming in, so in those circumstances he decides to use some portion of his emergency funds to buy bitcoin even though he knows that he is taking chances that his expected income does not come in in the amounts and/or the timeline that he had expected.  It ends up being a short-term calculated risk that he ends up considering to be within what he is willing to partake. .and of course, it could result in negative consequences, yet he thinks that the likelihood is pretty small and contained.


Back up funds is a way of describing emergency funds, reserves and float... so emergency funds is a type of back up funds.


Sure we build up our emergency funds in order to be prepared for any shortage of cash that might come, so if we are investing in bitcoin, then maybe we want to build up our emergency funds to be at least 3 months of our expense at the same time that we might be investing into bitcoin at a similar rate, yet once the emergency funds gets to 3 months of our expenses, we might not necessarily want to build it more, yet we may well expect that we never are going to need to use any of it since it is the last of funds that really shows that we don't have any money left, and guys might get through 20-30  years of investing without ever having to dip into their emergency funds - even though it is there and had been built up and maybe even added to from time to time to account for increases in monthly expenses.


You seem to be describing back up funds as float funds.

You did not even mention reserve funds, which are largely an extension of emergency funds, but reserve funds do not have any restrictions so they can be used to buy bitcoin or consume or to save for some specific items, and of course they could be used for emergencies and/or unexpected expenses or even to cover up mistakes.


You seem to be talking about discretionary funds, yet surely if the discretionary funds are not used right away to buy things or to invest, then they might be considered to be in reserve funds.

But yeah with bitcoin once the money is put into bitcoin, the general idea would be that the money is locked up for 4-10 years or longer, so we have to make sure that we are using money that we do not need for 4-10 years or longer - unless we might do some spend and replace if we might be wanting to support the use of bitcoin.


That is not true.  Discretionary funds are generally considered to be money that comes in each month or each pay period, and it can be used to buy things, invest or to get put into back up funds.. once the money is in the back up funds, whether emergency funds or reserve funds, then it could be taken back out, and surely many of us suggest to not use emergency funds unless you run out of all other money... even though surely there could be various places that money is kept and some locations might be more liquid than others, yet surely if some kind of funds end up being less liquid than expected, then a person might have to draw from other locations, so there can be questions regarding how to hold funds and how much cash to have versus cash in banks versus cash that might be held in other forms, and surely there can be some forms of cash that might be accessible within a few days or even a few weeks, and so how liquid it is can be a fact or in terms of from where money is drawn and how much to keep in those places.. ..

Regarding the float funds, I consider them to be extra funds that might be kept when certain expenses might not be known exactly, so we might have some extra money for food bills and utilities, maybe $200 extra, but then once they are resolved, and if we don't use the whole $200.. then the remaining would go into discretionary funds... and so let's say if we resolve our food bills and utilities and we ended up using $150 of the float, so then the remaining $50 would go in to discretionary income once the expenses are resolved/clarified with certainty.


Of course if we use up all of our various funds and then we tap into our emergency funds, then we have no other funds protecting our bitcoin, so our bitcoin would then be the next thing to use.  The longer that guys are investing and engaging in strong cashflow management practices, the more likely they will learn how to hold funds in various ways in which they intuitively know which funds to spend from first, second and third and come to realize if they are getting low on funds they may well want to start to exercise greater self-imposed restrictions in order to not overly deplete the various kinds of back up funds that they have and perhaps to not even coming close to needing to touch any of their emergency funds for any reason other than an actual emergency or some crazy ass unexpected expense that they have that was way outside of what they expected to be  likely or possible.  By the way, many folks may well know that they have lines of credit that are lined up, so that if they have some very bad situations, they may well be able to quickly tap into some lines of credit that they have, so guys account for their own particular circumstances when considering pecking order of various funds that they have available to them.


A person who has various back up funds is in a strong position to use 100% of his discretionary funds to buy bitcoin, yet usually guys will choose to have other money available so they are not going to use 100% of their discretionary funds, unless maybe they know that they are going to be paid again within a few days, so they don't have any issue using all of their discretionary funds to buy bitcoin.. including that they have their various back up funds.

You Tonimez seems to be classifying all back up funds as if they were discretionary funds, and sure even though the funds were built from discretionary fund money, we do not generally use  the term discretionary funds to describe all of the extra funds (various back up funds) even though they are all available to be used if the person wants to use them all for buying bitcoin or for whatever other purpose that might not have had been within their original intent. In that regard, we can do what we want and even violate our own previously established boundaries.


You seem to be the one convoluting terms, and even the ideas of what are basic expenses versus what are discretionary expenses can be defined differently by people in terms of their establishing what is their discretionary income or their discretionary funds.  Surely some of the ideas overlap, yet we still should try to be careful in terms of our own talking about these matters, since as you suggest, sometimes guys might use terms in confusing ways, and even you seem to be engaging in such confusing frameworks...even though you seem to also understand a lot of the ideas too...but you are likely causing confusion in some of your descriptions as I attempted to address in my above response.


I think that any of us who are trying to figure out how aggressive we can be in regards to our bitcoin investment without over doing it, then we should first be conscious of how strong is our cashflow management systems and practices.  if we have strong emergency funds, such at 3 months of expenses, and perhaps a little bit of reserves (even a couple of weeks), we are likely in a position to be as aggressive as we are able to be, which would be investing 100% of our discretionary income into bitcoin.  If se make mistakes then we have reserve funds to fall back upon without having to tap into our emergency funds.  Surely in most cases we are not going to want to invest 100% of our discretionary income into investing into bitcoin because we likely have other things going on in our lives and we want to have some income available to support other discretionary expenses, yet our level of aggressiveness or whimpiness is a matter of personal choice, and if we are largely in touch with our finances and our psychology, we should be able to figure out a level of aggressiveness that is sufficiently strong, yet without overdoing it... which is likely a good thing for anyone who is in their earliest of years of BTC accumulation, and even potentially anyone who has invested less than 1 years of their income (or their expenses) into bitcoin... and yeas, these are personal choices regarding when any of us might choose to either ramp up or to lessen our levels of bitcoin accumulation aggressiveness.

For sure any of us can have dilemmas including dilemmas that are partially motivated by seeing what others are doing.  Surely I could not go as seeminly extreme as you LFC, yet I consider that maybe I could ramp up my sales higher.. but I am not sure if I can do it.   I have most of my sell orders established up to $500k-ish, and i even upped them a couple of times.. Yet, at the same time, I have still been having dilemmas because I am ONLY selling a few percent of my stash all the way up to $500k-ish.. .. maybe I moved up from 2% to 2.6%. .but that is probably too low.... ..

And sure 25% is not totally unreasonable, even though the range of the sales seems too low.. even though you mentioned that you would continue to sell beyond the 25% if the price keeps going up... which truly could end up happening, but we surely don't know either..... but lately you have been thinking about a shorter sell time.. like the top might come prior to October/November, and that might end up being correct, but I am not going to give up on the idea that the top could drag out longer into the first quarter or the second quarter of 2026.. even though that theory did not play out very well in the last cycle... but I will tentatively have that possibility in mind.


Yeah but LFC is making something like 5 sales between $125k and $150k.. so it would not be all at once, and then he is going to continue to sell if it goes up further, presumptively smaller percentages of his stash.

Maybe not exactly what Philip suggested, but something in that ballpark: