I used to sell a lot on eBay and under their seller rules, annoyingly, MA is doing nothing wrong.

He is not defrauding eBay, he is conning his audience.

I also find it unlikely he is using the same IP for both eBay accounts, or might not manage the pseudonym account just to cover his ass. Instead, based on the item location, it is someone local to him. Or he might be using his (rented) office laptop for one account and home laptop for the other.

Regardless, quite how someone who is not MA has 130+ copies of his much "sought" after book is curious. Would someone really spend $13,000+ plus buying $95 priced copies to then resell for $300? How did they buy so many when the chance to purchase the book is so unlikely? This is all part of the scam.

It seems VERY far fetched, and a lot of risk and effort for such a random item that also requires physical handling. We know from MAs non-stop content he clearly has a lot of time on his hands, so put two and two together...

I quote Cialdini's book Influence to get further insight into the person MA is - a charlatan who uses confidence tricks that exploit the known flaws in the human psyche - and all to line his own pockets:

"Advertisers love to inform us when a product is the “fastest-growing” or “largest-selling” because they don’t have to convince us directly that the product is good, they need only say that many others think so, which seems proof enough... The message being communicated to the holdouts is clear: “Look at all the people who have decided to give. It must be the correct thing to do.”

"Since that encounter with the scarcity principle—that opportunities seem more valuable to us when their availability is limited..."

"A variant of the deadline tactic is much favored by some face-to-face, high-pressure sellers because it carries the purest form of decision deadline: right now. Customers are often told that unless they make an immediate decision to buy, they will have to purchase the item at a higher price or they will be unable to purchase it at all."
Cialdini PhD, Robert B.. Influence


Why the sold out book though? That is also simple to understand, where it is used to build on his authority, credibility and so make it easier to upsell more expensive products, like the WECs.

"The reason people aspire to call themselves “bestselling author” is because it dramatically increases your credibility and “personal brand.” It can establish you as a thought leader. You’re able to show that you not only wrote a book, but that the market has judged it to be better than other books out there. It’s a status symbol, one of that cashes in on the prestige of one of man’s oldest past-times. At last, I had acquired this coveted title for myself."
https://medium.com/the-mission/behind-the-scam-what-does-it-take-to-be-a-best-selling-author-3-and-5-minutes-ec05cee1749a

Unfortunately, he is not violating eBay policy, even if the ethics are totally wrong. My guess is his "official" eBay account IS selling to legitimate buyers at $95, perhaps with some friends and family helping him out using their eBay accounts.

He then has a secondary batch of books that he sells via his other account at $300. Either he or perhaps a contact in his office, home or local area, has access to that account and is likely using a different laptop, perhaps on a separate internet connection as well. That would only to be cover his ass and sidestep eBay's automated policy checking.

eBay does not like VPNs and seems to detect shared VPNs, which often sees bids or listings cancelled or accounts shut down - and very quickly.

That said, even if he was managing both accounts from the same IP, MA is not violating any selling policy on Ebay, where you are allowed more than one account when selling different items. And he is of course!

One account is selling the 2nd Edition, while his official eBay account is selling the 3rd Edition, and rarely is there much overlap.

That might be why he keeps publishing multiple editions of his book - nothing more than to game platforms like eBay and perhaps in some way, Amazon as well.

Here is the eBay policy:
https://www.ebay.com/help/policies/listing-policies/duplicate-listings-policy?id=4255

Yet more charlatan entertainment from MA! Another poster on this board DM'ed me about something odd they noticed about MA's recent foray into eBay.

I too had observed their claims and then pieced together what is likely to be a clever fraud, a confidence trick that is used by snake oil salesmen. Get a load of this:

There is a seller on eBay - morgonz54 - who seems to have VERY easy access to MA's "much" sought after book Manipulating the World Economy:
https://www.ebay.com/sch/morgonz54/m.html?_nkw&_armrs=1&_ipg&_from&LH_Complete=1&rt=nc&_trksid=p2046732.m1684

In total, since opening their account end of Jan 2020, and listing MA's book since early Feb 2020, they have sold 137 copies of Manipulating the World Economy bagging around $41k in book sales, where the Buy It Now price is $300. There is still one active listing here, with another TEN copies available:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Manipulating-the-World-Economy-Martin-Armstrong/402241091575

If you check the first link I post above, the day with the busiest numbers of new auctions for seller morgonz54 is 24 March 2020. They put up FIVE separate Buy It Now listings for the second edition starting at 15:36 up to 23:05 hrs.

Now check the eBay account that MA links to from his blog - presumably this is his eBay account (caesar315eb) - and see the sold listings:
https://www.ebay.com/sch/caesar315eb/m.html?item=324141916183&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&rt=nc&_trksid=p2046732.m1684

Notice the day he lists the THIRD EDITION is on 24 March at 15:55 hrs, some 20 minutes after morgonz54 uploads the second edition to eBay. Now let's check the LOCATIONS of both sellers:


morgonz54
Saint Petersburg, Florida, United States
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Manipulating-the-World-Economy-Martin-Armstrong/402132543898?hash=item5da0f7a99a:g:Y0EAAOSw7PNeLP4W

caesar315eb
Saint Petersburg, Florida, United States
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Manipulating-The-World-Economy-by-Martin-Armstrong/324113741479?hash=item4b76af36a7:g:1tgAAOSwzrZeelYq


Coincidence?

• Both accounts are both located in the exact same city
• Both accounts ONLY sell MA's book Manipulating the World Economy
• Both accounts have listed the same item on the same day with <30 minutes
• The "non-MA" account also has his very "rare" 1st edition of MtWE and a signed copy at that.

More likely, MA probably does manage or knows someone who can manage the morgonz54 account. Then his other account that is publicly promoted: caesar315eb is where he sells the "for public good" editions, where: "the price was kept low at $95 to enable everyone of all means to be able to purchase the book". Sure thing Martin!

Those either are legit sales on his "known" eBay account, or are sold to someone (himself?) to then list all of them back onto eBay under the pseudonym account - morgonz54 - at the $300, so that it maintains the mirage that MA is doing this for the public good ($95), but other people are taking advantage and selling the book at a huge premium ($300+). That then creates the scarcity/urgency psychology, which has netted MA tens of thousands of dollars if we believe morgonz54 is also owned or linked to him in some way.

Also, see this 26 Jan 2020 blog post where MA seems to be "planting" the thought that $300 is "fair value":

I have heard that the 2nd edition which sold out on Amazon in less than 3 hours has been selling in an auction on average at $275+ so I suppose $300 is reasonable... the 1st and 2nd editions always go for a premium... Even a 5th edition of Malthus will bring $3,000 these days.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/products/manipulating-the-world-economy-1st-edition-is-going-for-2000/

He is also planting a thought in his readers mind that even the 5th Edition will be worth more than what they paid.

Expect the book trick to go on for a long time, especially now his WECs are all cancelled.

I am not sure if the eBay trick is not him using multiple accounts. eBay is very sophisticated in cancelling or deleting accounts that bid on auctioned items even with a VPN. However, if it is Buy it Now, it is very easy to create and use fake accounts, where the transaction is instant and the listing is not removed until payment is made. So that is also why none of the listings are auctions, meaning the purchases on MA's official eBay account might be fake as part of the confidence trick.

It seems a bit suspect that MA is releasing some book, but ONLY in limited quantities and naturally it sells out in 15 minutes. Why not sell it via his website as well? Probably because eBay has publicly visible sales data that adds to the game he's trying to play...

Also, why not sell it digitally? If there is this much "demand", he could be making a mint selling it digitally, but alas that doesn't have any urgency/scarcity behind it, so he is VERY much playing a psychological game here.

Classic snake oil salesman tactic and I remain convinced MA is a student of Cialdini. He is a great salesman and does not know trading or even economics that well. He is an expert in human psychology trickery and sales.

The other hilarious thing is MA claiming his machine predicted COVID-19 and the ensuing economic carnage it has caused. Yet again, that same (cycle?) playbook is rolled out where MA claims his machine predicted the event - but only AFTER it happened. The very same thing happened with the REPO crisis in September, which alas saw an expensive "report" available to buy. The same thing with COVID-19, only this time a virtual webinar is being hosted, because the virus has brutally cancelled MA's only pay cheque this year.


Having attended his 2018 WEC in Orlando, I can you tell you this:

The main prediction from 2020-2024 was for a COMMODITY BOOM, where CA and AU would be the big winners over other major Western economies. Based on a massive decline in consumer and therefore business demand in the coming years, both because of unemployment/bankruptcy and simply permanently changed behaviours, that now seems unlikely. Oil has been declining since 2014 and it looks unlikely that trend will reverse, not least with renewables becoming more mainstram.

At the 2018 Orlando WEC, not once did MA mention:

• 2020 would see an economic crash that would be as historic as 1929
• Oil futures would turn negative for the first time in history
• Major economies would see the highest increase in unemployed in history
• That this would all be caused by an overreaction to an unknown virus

Yet another massive miss for MA and his ECM/Socrates.

What further evidence do people need to see this guy is a complete charlatan? He plays with the known flaws of human psychology to line his pockets, and does it in a very underhand way, where much of his socioeconomic commentary is logical and interesting, which builds trust, then he uses clever underhand tactics to make out his Socrates/ECM are some gift from God, so creating a cult-like persona that has more blind followers than wide-eyed detractors.

MA is such a frustrating charlatan.

On the one hand, his economic theory ("ECM") is interesting, but ultimately, like all of them, flawed. His grasp of socioeconomics and human behaviour is commendable and he would make a good uni professor as someone who - in his words - is evidently a B grade student.

On the other hand, his Socrates machine is quite clearly bogus, used as his pipe for his snake oil sales pied piper shtick that defrauds thousands of retail investors out of money. With that, the blog is also used to hoodwink retail idiots out of money by claiming he called future events AFTER they happened, creating a cult that worships their great sage like some prophetic Sun God, it drops their defences and makes them far easier to extort money for reports, WEC's and subs.


Now let's take a look at his most recent blog post about eBay and Manipulating The World Economy selling out in 15 minutes.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/manipulating-the-world-economy-on-ebay/

I know eBay well having sold hundreds of items over the past 15 years. It is NOT easy to create bogus accounts, and requires a unique mobile number, a VPN and even then, eBay will block bidding or delete your account where their algos can detect dodgy behaviour gaming their system.

So many of those 180 purchases are legit unless he has paid a lot of people with eBay accounts to all buy the book, creating hype, but I don't think that is the case as it seems a bit far fetched.

But then I noticed something curious. The book was last available on 24 March 2020 on eBay from the same seller account. While MA uses private listings, you can still match user IDs from the first and last letters of the hidden ID. The chances of getting random matches is likely to be low based on how varied user IDs are on the platform.

And it looks like the following buyers purchased MA's book again, on the 20 April AND managed it within the small 15 minute time window they had before the book sold out:

1***1
c***a
e***c
e***t
f***e
h***a
i***r
i***s
l***e
t***t


Ask yourself if this sounds feasible, where so many (10) of the same buyers of the book from 24 March would all be around on 20 April, for those brief 15 minutes, to buy the book again?

Those probably are friends and family helping things along.


And if you want to find out more about becoming a best selling author on Amazon, all in the name of selling "training" content, which is what MA does sell, read this:
https://observer.com/2016/02/behind-the-scam-what-does-it-takes-to-be-a-bestselling-author-3-and-5-minutes/

And yet again, to trade successfully using MA's calls, simply do the OPPOSITE of what he says/"forecasts".

MA explained the 2020.05 "turning point" would be inflationary:

"But generally, the next wave of the ECM business cycle should be an inflationary one."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/the-next-cycle-in-the-ecm-beginning-january-2020/

"The killing of Soleimani... is the precursor to the turn in the ECM which is due January 18, 2020. This should contribute to the inflationary cycle ahead."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/iran-the-cycle-of-war/

"This next wave should be inflationary."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/the-great-alignment-2020/


At the 2018 WEC, not once did MA mention:
1. December 2018 would be the best buying opportunity for TWO straight years
2. The repo crisis
3. The pandemic that started December 2019 and has now crashed the market.


Why not? These are major events that you could trade from. And yet he explains Socrates can predict everything...

Interesting take on MA's incarceration:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1580210937.php


Far from other recent posters on this board once again claiming MA was in contempt for not handing over his computer code, that appears to be a convenient ruse for the more credible theory:

It had something to do with Safra, and something to do with not handing over evidence about manipulating the metals market.

Notice how MA over the years has oft written in his blog that he simply does NOT believe anyone is powerful enough to manipulate anything?

I wonder if the powers at be - as part of the conditions of his release - or someone powerful with a lot to lose, demanded he push such a narrative to keep any scent off the trail? A case of: "nothing to see here...", while using Socrates as the beard. He knows he is selling snake oil, but keeps the hoax going because otherwise his life is at risk, much like Safra? That would compel someone to willingly lie, fabricate, and screw unsuspecting people out of money - he has to make a living somehow, so it kills two birds with one stone.


We know Safra had his fingers dirty with the Russian government - people you do not mess with. I have written about this before, but have for long wondered if MA might be sponsored or linked to Russia? He very rarely writes about the country and is never critical of it. He is very critical of the West. The Russian's were famous for dezinformatsiya, and based on works in Russia that cover very similar themes to MA's Socrates https://www.amazon.co.uk/Economic-Periphery-International-Perspectives-Administration/dp/3319412604 - including other papers written by the same Russian authors of this book (I own a copy) - is it really that far-fetched that MA is being used as a tool for a much bigger agenda and it may be coordinated by a Russian paymaster?

It also explains why he gets away with his selling of snake oil. There is no code and Socrates doesn't exist based on the evidence, from his own writings, to the performance of his subscription service. It is, however, brilliant dezinformatsiya, straight out of the book of the KGB.

His alleged travel around the world - that is not to see his "clients". It is to meet his overlords.

Interestingly, he also managed to get Nigel Farage to speak at his "possibly last ever" (that was also a lie) European WEC in Rome. Farage works closely with Aaron Banks, who has a Russian wife: Ekaterina Paderina. Who knows where that rabbit hole leads...

I write this not as a conspiracy theory, just to make people think. It is quite clear even the ECM is nonsense, where yet another flash point (2020.05) came to pass without anything happening, much like pi day (Nov 2018); and 2015.75 (the reverse of the forecast happened); and the "economic, financial and banking" crisis that was supposed to erupt in the months leading up to the 2019 European elections where, very conveniently, the Rome WEC was scheduled.

Nothing like a good bit of hype and urgency to get retail investors handing over thousands of dollars for conference tickets, where the cult leader can explain exactly how to weather the storm. Tried and tested formula if you follow MA's writings...

The problem is, he (or his "machine") never did call the market on this - MA explained the ECM was predicting an economic downturn, and in his own words, that had nothing to do with individual markets. Back in 2015, he explained of the run up to 2020.05:

"We are looking at an economic crash – not a market crash. As government implodes with the Pension Crisis, capital shifts from public assets to private. This is a process that is not instantaneous, it is an ongoing event that will worsen now into 2020 and it will not end until this Private Wave peaks in 2032."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/2015-75-was-just-the-beginning/


Not sure what did worsen up to 2020.05, unless it has been kept well hidden from everyone? Most major asset classes, jobs growth, wage growth, PMI, etc in the West has been strong through that period. There was no major economic or financial disasters, nor even a recession.

In other blog posts in recent years and even months, MA explained the period from 2020-2024 would be inflationary:

"But generally, the next wave of the ECM business cycle should be an inflationary one."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/the-next-cycle-in-the-ecm-beginning-january-2020/

"The killing of Soleimani... is the precursor to the turn in the ECM which is due January 18, 2020. This should contribute to the inflationary cycle ahead."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/iran-the-cycle-of-war/

"This next wave should be inflationary."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/the-great-alignment-2020/


He repeated the same thing at the 2018 WEC, where MA explained commodities would see a bull run through the specific time frame of 2020-2024, therefore go long on CA/AU stock markets and CAD/AUD, which are the most sensitive major (Western) markets to the commodity cycle. Divest out of USD and the Dow.


So if you think 2020.05 marks a major downturn in the global economy and therefore major markets like the Dow, then you have tacitly confirmed the core criticism of MA:

His ECM is totally open to interpretation - quite likely because it is flawed or a hoax - and for that reason, it is impossible to trade from.

Case in point: despite MA continually explaining 2020-2024 would be inflationary, you are claiming that your interpretation is that it will be deflationary. That is not what MA has ever written or spoken about should you review his blog (see examples above - more exist over the years), or if you have ever attended one of his WECs (I have, in 2018).

Confirming once again that MA was wrong and his theory totally bogus?

No plague or pandemic has struck and currently we do not know what will happen with the coronavirus. Even if there is a pandemic this year, it still flies in the face of his ECM claim that it predicts things "to the day". Plus, there are already active programmes by real scientists to predict the next pandemic, astutely named PREDICT: https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/program/predict


To your point, see this MA blog post from 2 Oct 2014, the same year that report was published:

"The plague cycle appears to be reaching an important high in 2019."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/will-the-demise-be-plague-or-economics/


There was no plague and it did not reach any "high". Moreover, that was based on MA's invented "big bang" hoax of 2015.75, where everything was supposed to "turn down" into 2020.05.

All of it the invention of a mind that I feel is turning increasingly senile if his recent blog posts are anything to go by.


MA is now totally discredited. The research, evidence and content on this board over the past 8 months are damning and leaves little to counter unless, as an avid follower, you are in a state of denial that your cult-like leader has been deceiving you all this time.

Caveat emptor.

And my "prediction" (MA is predictable) was correct other than the timing. This MA blog nonsense here, posted 11 Mar 2019:

"This may be our last WEC in Europe."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-economics-upcoming-events/world-economic-conference/wec-in-rome-may-be-our-last-in-europe/

Turned out to be hysterical BS, using the known psychological sales tactic of urgency, where we are now going to see another WEC in EUROPE this year, posted 22 Jan 2020:

"This year we are holding three World Economic Conference events — Shanghai in May, Frankfurt in June, and then Orlando in November. The Frankfurt WEC will focus on the crisis in Europe."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-economics-upcoming-events/world-economic-conference/interest-rates-and-the-great-global-crisis/


I know someone who attended the Rome WEC convinced it was going to be their "last chance" to see MA present a conference in Europe. One year later and he is back! Not three, five or ten years - literally the following year. I had a feeling that would be the case.

Yet more people hoodwinked out of thousands of dollars for something that is only just above an MA-narrated podcast version of his blog...

So the ECM turning point arrived 18 Jan 2020. What happened?

Let's take a look at the MA/ECM forecasts from older blog posts:

Dec 28, 2014
"We should witness dramatic political and economic changes going into 2020.05. The bottom of the ECM 2020.05 will also be 31.4 years from the start of the fall of Communism that should culminate in the final stages of the collapse of Socialism. This is part of the cause of BIG BANG that will become focused most intensely between 2015.75 and 2020.05."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/understanding-big-bang-2015-75/

Also see:
"Laissez-faire economics will return once again by the end of the collapse in state rule over the economy"
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2014/12/Laissez-faire-death-of-Marxism.jpg


Sep 2, 2015
"... the last 4.3 years are typically the worst. That is what we should see between 2015.75 and 2020.05... This is the peak in confidence in government and it will evaporate rapidly as it did in 260 AD. This is not the end of the world, but it will be a chance to push back to restore our liberty. It will get bad at first because government will fight hard going into 2017. By mid-2018, we should begin to see the trend with more clarity for once and all."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/the-next-four-years-after-2015-75/


Nov 4, 2015
"2015.75 was a major turning point that was the BEGINNING of a serious decline into 2020.05. Even politics has gone nuts and the media is starting to figure out that this is all about throwing the bums out. This is the start of a very serious new trend and it is time to wake up. The velocity will begin to pick up with the benchmark targets in gold."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/2015-75-seems-to-be-on-target/


Jul 13, 2016
"we are looking at the demise of governments... We are looking at the collapse of government’s ability to issue debt as we move forward into this cycle... This time, governments are trying bail-ins and this is causing confidence to collapse... And to answer why we did not hold one in Berlin, yes, our models were warning about significant civil unrest in Europe as a consequence of the complete fiscal mismanagement of the ECB."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/the-2015-75-crisis-moving-into-2020-05/


Nov 3, 2019 (where MA acknowledges his blog post linked above Dec 28, 2014)
"This target is 31.4 years from the START of the fall of Communism. It is the START of this trend in Western Society NOT THE END!!!!!!! The 2020 election in the USA will be the most contentious since the 1960s and we should expect a rise in civil unrest. It will turn into a major political battle at the peak of the next wave – 2024."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/misrepresenting-our-forecast-for-the-start-of-big-bang-2015-75/

So rather than admit he was wrong, instead MA moves the goal posts, claims he was correct and explains this is just the "beginning". Wasn't he telling everyone that beginning was 2015.75?


The context of all the above blog posts going back to 2014 has MA explaining there should have been a low into 2020.05. That did not happen.

Now he is explaining the period to 2022 should be "inflationary":
"But generally, the next wave of the ECM business cycle should be an inflationary one"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/the-next-cycle-in-the-ecm-beginning-january-2020/



Also interesting reading: I stumbled across this from 2010, where MA makes countless forecasts - presumably based on his ECM/Socrates - and hardly any of them came to pass, including China becoming the new economic superpower by 2015.75, or at least that would be set in stone by 2020.05... Meanwhile, the US remains the world's largest economy by some $7.2trn.

His forecasts of GBP were glaringly wrong and Socrates failed to predict one of the most politically significant events in UK history since the 1600s with Brexit.


And in this article from 2007, the ECM turning point of 2020.05 is stated as 01/26/20, while in other blog posts, it is 01/18/20.

If his alleged machine spits out dates "to the day" that are not based on opinion or interpretation, was this just a typo?


So what happened on 18 Jan 2020?

Nothing.


It was another 2015.75 all over again. There is indeed a clear cycle to everything, including MA's BS.

I have been active again on these boards in recent months in the run up 2020.05 = 18 January, 2020.

That day is tomorrow.

Countless examples exist where MA explains on his blog that the ECM has predicted things "to the day". See:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/welcome-to-the-pi-target-day-2018-89/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/the-difference-between-2020-and-2032/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/the-ecm-turning-point-here-in-november/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/did-the-ecm-pick-the-target-to-the-day-being-syria/


Also, unlike many on these boards, I have attended the WEC, Orlando, in 2018. And at MA's "infamous" hors d'oeuvres he actually said, directly to my face in conversation, that his:

ECM predicts things to the day, which goes as far back as the 1987 stock market crash.
(Not his exact words, but more or less verbatim)


So now we have a date and the ECM is - supposedly - able to predict things exactly to the day.

Let's see what happens by midnight tomorrow in Samoa, which will be the last country on Earth to hit midnight by time difference. MA has explained something should happen in the "periphery" of Europe:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/europe-how-bad-can-this-get/


If nothing happens, much like 2015.75, which MA predicted would be an economic crash, or at least 4 years of economic decline, where in fact it was inflationary, then I think the jury is out on him.

It will confirm he is not a great economist and nor will history remember him as one. He is instead a great snake oil salesman, who is an expert in human psychology. He does not run an economic research firm frequented by government and institutional investors. He runs a publishing business aimed squarely at retail investors where (I theorise) his plea deal means he cannot engage with professional investors.


It also explains why his prophesied "day of Armageddon" occurs in 2032.

By that point, MA will be aged 82 and the probability of him still being alive to explain to his cultish following why 2015.75 occurred again (read: nothing) is slim. Even he himself writes about how much time he has left on this planet.

Thus he gets to avoid any awkward questions or criticism. Corpses don't answer to anyone.


All eyes are on tomorrow.

Interesting.


I also wonder if MA plagiarised some of what is featured in this book here:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Economic-Periphery-International-Perspectives-Administration/dp/3319412604


Curiously, the authors of this book (I have a copy) use the specific phrase, but in an earlier paper of theirs:

Phase transition.

Grinin, L. E., & Korotayev, A. V. (2009). Social macroevolution: Growth of the world system integrity and a system of phase transitions.


Not sure if that is standard nomenclature in economics, but if it isn't, then who coined the phrase first?

Full 8-bit, high color:

The curious thing is until the Repo market showed signs of problems early 2019 - then the Fed intervened mid September 2019 - MA had never mentioned it before. Why didn't Socrates predict it?

There was no mention of it at the 2018 WEC. It literally came out of nowhere and suddenly MA was writing blog post after blog post about it, plus offering up expensive reports, explaining it was now one of the major flash points of 2019... That he or his alleged machine (never) forecast or predicted.

His first mention of the Repo crisis was on 19 Sep 2019, some two days after the mass media had broken the news about the Fed intervention:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/the-panic-in-interest-rates-is-just-getting-started/

Then by 1 November, MA was making out it was THE issue to focus on:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/repo-crisis/

Despite never mentioning it before.

That alone is another good example of MA claiming credit for foreseeing something, but only AFTER the event had happened. His following falls for it every time. A tried and tested formula.


It was also quite funny to observe another typical MA tactic in his reader questions content today. Blog post 6 Jan 2020:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/is-world-war-iii-on-the-horizon/

QUESTION:  I... have begun to start reading older posts because it is all amazing work. When looking at your war cycle.... becoming pretty clear World War 3 between east and west seems just over the horizon past 2032?


The now predictable self-aggrandising aside (the question is likely made up by MA himself), rather than answering the question, MA then writes around the question and never gives any definitive opinion or forecast. Most of his answer doesn't even talk about war, and only in the final sentence does MA explain:

"... they will turn to international war as a means to retain power and distract the people from the real economic crisis which is befalling civilization."


Wow, 'o great sage! Yet another ambiguous statement that will always become true over a long enough time scale. No different than someone asking for my opinion of the US economy and I explain it "will enter recession by 2032". If the US does indeed enter recession through what is a very predictable scenario - if not by simple probability - and over a long enough time scale, I can then claim myself as a financial prophet!

A good one I remember is below, from middle of last year:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/macrone-order-italian-is-no-longer-to-be-taught-in-france/

I am no fan of the EU, but on reading this, I thought: "what?". Tried to find a reference for it and found none. Only MAs blog made mention of this alleged "law".


I can ignore the misspelling of Macron, but no evidence suggests France passed such law and nor did MA reference his claim.

It is like what Barclay Leib - a former colleague of MA - explains in his book Not On My Grandfather's Wallstreet of MA, that the blog has turned into a mishmash of irreverent ramblings and nonsense.

All of the above are good examples of this.

And it further erodes MA's credibility and trustworthiness as an information source.

To bash someone is to fiercely criticise, and I don't think anyone here is doing such a thing other than simply evidencing:

1. The times MA has been wrong
2. The ambiguity of his writings
3. The likelihood he is faking reader questions
4. Debunking his bogus claims e.g. that Socrates is hosted on IBM Sequoia
5. Evidencing how Socrates is impossible to trade from.

There is no other forum where MA's work can be objectively discussed, not least as he does not allow comments on his website, and if you attend his WEC - there isn't even a facility to share contact details with other attendees other than physically handing someone a business card. That, despite WEC attendees having access to an online event platform, which does not allow for easy comms with other attendees.

MA appears to tightly control the narrative and conversation around him and his work, and thus this type of forum is needed and a valuable resource.

Criticism of MA is justified where it would be nice to see some humility from him. Why doesn't he produce an annual review that lists all of his good and bad forecasts? Why doesn't he ever talk about any of his trades (assuming he is allowed to trade)? Why doesn't he explain why Socrates/ECM has called significant dates where nothing of note happened?


To your point about "jealousy" - that is just ridiculous if you read what I have said above.

Speaking of the MA book you mention, someone on Amazon has left a 3 star review. Does that now mean they are "jealous" of MA?


No one on these boards is claiming to have all the answers, but MA is. Or at least, he claims Socrates/the ECM does have all the answers. So your confused comment also makes little sense about setting up our own investment firm, not least as MA does not run an investment firm, he runs a content publishing business aimed at retail investors.

None of us are claiming we can "forecast" better than MA nor develop some (likely made up) AI supercomputer. All we are saying is if he is a charlatan, ethically that is not something we agree with, and hence why this whole discussion has started.


Additionally, if you want to know about real, genuine investment firms who really do use AI as part of their trading approach, see:

Renaissance Technologies
Two Sigma


Now compare the above to MA's "investment firm":
https://aeglobalsolutionsinc.com/

and

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/


Those hedge funds are doing the very thing MA claims he is doing, only without the subterfuge and constantly calling some prophesied day of financial Armageddon that was supposed to happen on 2015.75. Commonly, at least in the annals of human psychology, those beating the drum of impending doom - with a following of disciples who never question their enlightened leader - are often running a cult that is based on the invention of the mind, not the truth of reality.

Only because it is the NY and you insist, I will give you my thoughts, and tie it back to MA's ECM, which is essentially what he uses (allegedly) to predict such socioeconomic flash points:

-Euro is gonna collapse, European Union will fall
MA claims the euro is structurally flawed, and I find his explanation logical and agreeable, though it is almost impossible to verify his theory. Whether it will collapse - who knows? Even USD went through serious problems in its first few decades and if the euro collapses, so too does the world economy, so I would rather it not even though I am anti-EU.

IMF has urged the EU to move to a digital currency, something MA has written about, and that may be the evolution of the currency, which would extend its life. No currency in human history has lasted the test of time, so will the euro and even USD exist in another 50 years? Quite likely. In 200 years? Probably not. It really is anyone's guess what will happen and I am not convinced MA and his "machine" know either.

Ditto political unions. They too have not lasted and commonly end in some kind of conflict. I do not expect the EU to still exist in 50 years time, where already there are deep fractures across the bloc from economic, to social and cultural. Every pillar of society has conflict in the EU and that is what will tear it apart. Again, the date of that is anyone's guess, and I have become increasingly unconvinced that the ECM truly is "accurate to the day" or even useful.


-Dollar is gonna go up a lot
Depends entirely on the currency pair and how far back in time you go to smooth out volatility. Despite all the shrieks about Brexit trashing GBP/USD, GBP has lost value against USD for every decade since 1871; and against the EUR, every 5 years since 1999. GBP has never regained its former highs. So in some ways, predictions like these are a sure fire bet based on historic trends - MA and his Socrates not needed - but it will one day reverse, which is also based on historic trends. USD will remain strong for as long as the US is an economic superpower. Once China predictably takes the baton, USD will begin weakening perhaps for as long as it has been strengthening (150 years) or until a new currency is created.

Generally, the "world" currency appreciates with the rise and fall of civilisations. Pre-US empire, sterling hit all time highs up until the British empire ended after WWII. The Dutch guilder rocketed and then tanked in line with the Dutch empire, which ended mid 17th Century.

The same fate awaits USD. Again, MA and his "machine" not needed to predict this. Like how there will definitely be another recession in the future. It WILL happen. When it happens - who knows?


-Dow Jones will keep going up to 35000 points, because with negative interest rates in Europe that's where the money will go
Again, anyone's guess and MA has continually called the Dow highs wrong. His predictions seem no better than any other analyst. Where sovereign debt is bankrupting nation states, and so making safe havens like bonds toxic, then it does make sense for big money to buy up significant chunks of private assets, which would include blue chips on the Dow. The EU has major issues, but any flight of capital to US stocks is probably more to do with the likelihood of future returns + FX fluctuations favouring USD + diversifying portfolios, rather than snubbing equities listed on EU bourses because of interest rates, which doesn't make much sense.


-Despite the strong dollar, Gold will go up significantly because of people won't trust the governments anymore.
If citizens no longer trust government then commonly revolution/civil war breaks out. Not sure how much use gold will be then and even if it does spike, the malaise will be such you probably won't be selling it; by the time society goes back to normal, the price will fall and you'd end up where you started. Rather than double guess any of this, the best traders/hedge funds have diversified portfolios for reason, including investments in precious metals. So really your portfolio should be structured in such a way that if one asset class unexpectedly tanks, another spikes. You buy your portfolio assets regularly (weekly or monthly) meaning you buy on the way up and down. Over the long term, it averages out to a large gain with compound interest factored in (inflation, dividend reinvestment). At that point, you won't care what the asset is as you are still making money and it is part of your portfolio strategy.


-Copper will go up because of electric vehicles and demand in China.
Who knows and I don't know enough about metals to make any claim and certainly wouldn't invest in it. Can't recall much MA content about copper. If I wanted exposure to metals, I would buy a fund. Again, this goes back to my above point about a carefully structured and diversified portfolio, investing in things you understand.

At the 2018 WEC, MA was quite adamant the period of 2020-2024 would be very bullish for commodities, and so very good for the AU and CA stock markets. Hence, the takeaway would be buy an index of the main AU and CA markets now. Sell them in 2024.

However, a similar prediction/forecast from years back was about failed crop harvests and the rising price of food. However, checking some of the main agricultural indexes, and they have continued declining, making a bad trade: https://us.spindices.com/indices/commodities/sp-gsci-agriculture

I would be very cautious investing even in indexes of CA and AU, but MA was VERY adamant they would be good investment markets for the first 4 years of the 20s.

Let's see if his Jan 18 2020 forecast comes to pass...
While the ECM is turning in January 2020, that appears to be impacting more externally to Europe. Europe may see economic turmoil into 2021.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/europe-how-bad-can-this-get/


-Emerging markets are gonna pop up because of strong dollar, they won't be able to pay the debt denominat
Also impossible to properly verify, though this MA theory is interesting. It makes sense. Some emerging markets have actually strengthened against USD (Thai baht), meaning they are now finding it easier to pay down USD denominated debt. It isn't linear or a one-way bet of USD good, all other currencies bad. Almost all nations are in huge debt, but currency is essentially backed up by GDP, so those nations with the greatest economic output will have more resilient currencies. That too makes sense and has historical precedence.


Notice how none of the above requires consuming MA's content or acting upon potentially flawed / bogus ECM "forecasts"?...

(Long post warning. This will be my last post of 2019 on these boards, and it has been very interesting sharing comments about MA over the past 6 months or so.)


I attended the 2018 WEC, but with a strange intention: I wanted to find out if MA was indeed a fraud, where I had been following his blog for a good few years. Through most of that time, I genuinely thought he was onto something very interesting with his ECM, though never traded on it. I had also heard before of pi constantly appearing in nature, and in ancient history (Great Pyramids), so the concept didn't seem too far fetched.

However, I question everything and am not one that likes being played a fool, so began to think, as much as I enjoyed his blog content, is this just a very clever hoax? I even thought it could be brilliant Russian dezinformatsiya, something I had read a book about through the same period I had stumbled across MA. That was also something I noticed: he hardly ever mentioned, nor is he ever negative, about Russia. He also had some kind of dealings with Russia because of the Sacra connection. He is very anti-West, and while I am no fan of any Western government, neither am I fan of Russia, or any other foreign government either. That too made me wonder whether he might have a pro-Russia agenda.

I can't evidence any connection here, but it added to my BS-o-meter and made me want to research some contrarian opinions from other people.

Why then did I decide to spend thousands of dollars travelling to, and attending the WEC?

This is going to sound odd, but I attended to prove to myself that this was all BS. It would also give me an opportunity to meet the man himself, and ask a burning question that might also help me make up my mind about MA. I'll elaborate on that below. Finally, it was then around the time of him promoting his "last ever" European WEC in Rome 2019, that I found this Bitcoin Forum on MA, which seemed to be the only place with a very active discussion about MA's legitimacy. At the time, I was trying to find more "dirt" on MA, as I thought surely he cannot be correct 100% of the time (or his alleged machine, which are still susceptible to errors, malfunctions, etc)?

Turns out he was wrong. Often. And this forum was - and remains - brilliant for in-depth analysis and personal tales of trades gone wrong on the back of ECM predictions or MA opinions - both of which are almost impossible to decipher based on the ambiguity of his writings, from blog posts to his eye-wateringly priced reports. There is a reason MA has no comment sections on his site: he can then fully control the narrative and the mystique around his "legend".

In terms of the WEC, I was very surprised when sat next to family of Canadians. One of this group told me they had attended "multiple" WECs, which I found surprising as we are talking about just one family who had dropped tens of thousands of dollars, not including travel and accommodation costs. Yet they also explained they did not understand reversals nor had access to the arrays, which resemble something from an Atari in any case. I still wonder to this day why they felt the need to attend so many, where that money could have been placed on a DOW JONES tracker and they would have been sat on a very healthy return, without needing MA's input (if there even was any).

Others I spoke to also explained they didn't know how to trade off Socrates. I also spoke to a professional fund manager from Cincinnati, if memory serves me right. He explained he appeared regularly on finance sections of the local TV stations. He also told me he didn't rely on MA for trading, but found some of his content interesting. There was also a very young kid from Canada, who told me he was a full time trader, working from home, and found MA's calls brilliant and the cornerstone of his success. A plant maybe?

The average demographic was older white males, nearing retirement age or retired. Wealthy, with money to invest or "save" from the impending financial Armageddon MA had prophesied.

And that is where, being as objective as possible, MA is essentially leading a cult. Like all cults, the Day of Armageddon (2015.75) came to pass, and nothing happened. Countless other doomsday calls, like the "financial, economic and banking chaos" that he wrote about early 2019, that was supposed to happen around the time of the EU elections - also passed with nothing of note happening.

Read Robert Cialdini's book Influence, which has an entire chapter on cults. It explains typical and predictable human behaviour. With cults, if the day of Armageddon passes with barely a strong gust of wind, rather than disband, the followers become even more fervent in their beliefs, trying to convince others that their new-found belief system really does have meaning, and something terrible IS going to happen, so REPENT and also follow MA before it's too late!

This likely is a typical outcome, where to that Canadian family I met - someone must have been waxing lyrical about MA, and more cultists then join.

At the 2018 WEC, while the macroeconomic stuff was interesting, it is nothing a few good books on the subject and contrarian economists would also cover. MA touched lightly on Socrates, explaining the IF THEN ELSE code, which I thought - not being a coder - sounded very basic for something that was supposed to be so advanced, MA is being hounded by the CIA for his code. He also stood on stage without much conviction as he was talking about this, but that's ok.

Remember the typical demographic?

Most of them are technical Luddites because of their age, so are none the wiser.

I also managed to speak to MA very briefly at his "legendary" hors d'oeuvres. I asked him a simple question:

How can Socrates possibly be accurate where accuracy of any model is only as good as the data it is given? That data is limitless, meaning Socrates cannot possibly be correct all of the time.

MA seemed taken aback and defensive I would dare ask such a question, and bluntly explained the ECM has "never been wrong" going back to the 1987 stock market crash. It was at that moment, I thought... BS. I work in the communications industry in a role that uses lots of data and ML. Even SIMPLE predictions are often wrong because the data quality or volume is never good/large enough.

And MA is explaining he effectively has access to limitless data, meaning his machine's predictions are correct 100% of the time? It is actually absurd when you think about it and the science is as bad as the climate scientists he loves to criticise (though I do share the same sentiments). Interestingly, MA has also explained on his blog that he uses an IBM supercomputer that we have also found to be a bogus claim. That supercomputer uses significant amounts of energy.

Thus, if MA is telling the truth, his machine would have to consume if not enormous amounts of energy - LIMITLESS amounts of energy - where the only way it could predict things to 100% accurac is with limitless data.

Otherwise, his model uses sampled data, which is useful to a point. But it will always be off by +/- percentage and is there as a predictable model, not a definitive guide. And yet MA explains his ECM is a definitive guide.


It is BS. As brilliantly explained in some comments over the past one or two pages, the supercomputer and the government wanting his code are all a smokescreen, to confuse and cover up his real game, which is to create as much mystique around his being as possible. That is what gets him a loyal following. It sells WEC tickets, expensive reports (which are 99% ramblings about history, 1% ambiguous opinions on the future), and Socrates subs.

And that affords him a very nice retirement, plus some very nice "friends".

Speaking of which, at the hors d'oeuvres evening of the 2018 WEC, MA - who was surrounded by fawning WEC attendees like some Jesus figure - eventually sauntered off with a young and attractive Indian (Asia, not America) woman. It made me wonder what those WEC tickets had paid for, and just how much that lady was with MA because of his youthful appearance, boyish good looks, extreme wit and muscular physique... Unless it was an employee, though she did not appear until the very end of the night. If you have the money...

p.s. of MAs calls where I have come good. I bet with a friend on the index of European banking shares. Over a 1 year period, if the index was 10% higher, my friend won. 10% lower, I won. That bet was placed based on MAs call AND knowing there were major problems with the EU banking system. I won the bet. Did MA help here? Maybe, but then it was tantamount to predicting the favourite horse is going to win the race, so hardly groundbreaking, and I already held strong opinions on the direction of EU banks. There had been countless bankruptcies as one thing.

The other was the rise of the USD vs GBP. However, that too was easy to predict where anything concerning Brexit being cancelled saw sterling rise, and if Brexit seemed more likely, it would tank. That cycle kept occurring multiple times a year from June 2016. It was one of the most sure bets on FX you could place. I, and not MA, called the bottom of the GBP/USD slide in August 2019, and one of the last highs of that year in March 2019. MA confirmed the trend, but like the above, no better than any other analyst. Plus, GBP/USD all through the 3+ years of Brexit became very easy to predict. Oh, and it has bounced back and is likely to continue rising through at least H1 2020. Why didn't Socrates predict that?

And that too takes a lot of the gloss off MA's mystique. He seems to know a lot about macroeconomics. But his predictions are no better than anyone else; Socrates quite likely doesn't exist and if it does, it is bogus; and you cannot trade on Socrates/the reversals either. The ECM is interesting, but also impossible to trade off, unless your investment style is buying large tracker funds or long term bets on currency. For that, you also do not need MA. You can buy a few good books on trading and it covers sensible trades for long term growth, most of which are based around trackers/funds.

Caveat emptor.

Notice the backtracking from @Gumbi?

I wonder if Socrates has forecast a class action lawsuit against MA in 2020? The US is a highly litigious country.

There likely will be a lot of retail investors nursing losses based on Socrates "predictions", from trading, through to needlessly selling their property - all based on an elaborate hoax.

Not to mention thousands wasted on conferences that just glorify blog posts, to reports that contain 99% irrelevant ramblings about history and a few pages that replicate the ambiguity of the blog posts...