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Can you explain this in your own words, if you truly believe that simple logic can help you win in sports betting?
Tell me how you analyze games in a simple way and still manage to win consistently, something that most of us struggle with.
They say you need to analyze thoroughly and consider tons of data to make the right decisions… but if we’re just using the word "logic," then all of that might not even be necessary anymore.
What do you think, is that really possible?
Tell me how you analyze games in a simple way and still manage to win consistently, something that most of us struggle with.
They say you need to analyze thoroughly and consider tons of data to make the right decisions… but if we’re just using the word "logic," then all of that might not even be necessary anymore.
What do you think, is that really possible?
Nobody wins consistently. Maybe someone is in the black in the long run, that's more likely.
As for deep analysis, it's nonsense - you won't be able to do it deeper than bookmakers (team of professionals + more data than you have + more advanced software).
Therefore, simple logic remains. The best example is what will start in a couple of hours. Chelsea - PSG. PSG is the best team of the season, which beat the strongest clubs in an ultimatum manner. Chelsea is an ordinary average club, former (in the distant past haha) top, but now at most almost top.
Bookmakers' odds for PSG to win are 1.71, which by simple logic looks like easy money and a gift. And we'll find out how it will actually be in about 4 hours.
Re: ? Sportsbet.io ? FIFA Club World Cup ? Discussion thread
It is interesting that 1-1 is quoted as only 7.70, and 0-0 as 15.00. Moreover, BTTS Yes/No is 1.71/2.16. There must be some bias here. Or maybe the bookmakers think that PSG is invulnerable and the main part of the BTTS No coefficient is that Chelsea will not score a goal.
I like Chelsea Double Chance 2.30 and goalless draw (too high odds)
That 0-0 @15 odds can't be ignored and this sounds spicy hot 🔥 especially that PSG meets a team with the park the bus blueprint, but the pressure will be too much for them to go goalless for 90 minutes and this is a lot of time, plus we have VAR that picks up on any funny infringements and possible penalties...maybe a fiver on this I like Chelsea Double Chance 2.30 and goalless draw (too high odds)
And btw PSG are not only invulnerable but they are invisible
The quotes have changed suspiciously:
5.30 - 4.30 - 1.61
Now in the source where I look at them they are as follows:
4.80 - 3.95 - 1.71
As we can see, PSG's odds have been reduced in favor of Chelsea's double chance. I wonder what the bookmakers know? 
I thought that with the way PSG plays, +61% for one bet is easy money, but now it's even more. Suspicious. By the way, I checked the weather (I thought maybe a thunderstorm was expected, the game would be stopped and therefore the randomness would be increased) but it seems the weather is calm and everything will go without force majeure.
Yeah, the group of death vs the easy group looked way way too different, I mean look at Chelsea's path to the final, it's laughable and looks just like original CWC whereas PSG had to fight Atletico, Bayern, Real Madrid, come on, the draw could have been better.
But the main thing is, I still think is prestige. And how you bring prestige to a circus, is to stop making it look like its run by clowns!
But the main thing is, I still think is prestige. And how you bring prestige to a circus, is to stop making it look like its run by clowns!
Nothing can compare to City getting the easiest opponents in any tournament (as long as it can)
As for the group stage of the Champions League in the new format, my thought was that there could be at least 30 teams, at least 35, or any other number now, it makes no difference since it’s just a clown show
Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions
Why is it outrageous? He is 24 years old and the fact that he is not the best at Real does not mean that he will not be the best at another club. These are the prices now, and I think that Real has set this figure as a starting point for negotiations, most likely it can be reduced. If we talk about leaving for free, then he has a contract until 2028, so those who want him for free must wait three years.
I think people should accept the fact that clubs have the right to set a selling price for any of their players, it is now left for clubs that are interested in those players to bring in their offer at the end their might deal or no deal but the highest bidder wins, as for the player himself, 24 is still fresh so I agree with you that him not giving his best in Realmadrid may not be the same when he gets to another club, we never can tell what's the cause of his perceived slight lapses and another thing is that I don't think there is anything outrageous about that amount because a club will want to make profit while selling their player unless such player has already lose much value even as that they will want to do everything possible to get a little profit, we can't talk about leaving for free here because he's still for business.The price of a player is not determined by the club, the player is not a slave. The price of a player is the cost of early termination of the contract. That is, the player leaves and pays money for not fully completing the contract. So this price is determined by both the player and the club at the time of signing the contract. Then they can negotiate for any other price, but only if both agree, because if someone does not agree, he is free to demand the figure that is written in the contract.
And my thought was not at all that Rodrigo did not give 100% at Real. Not at all. My thought is that the best of the best play at Real, and the fact that Rodrigo is not the best at Real does not mean that he will not be top 1 at another club. Therefore, his price is justified.
It seems like PSG is more dominant, the chance of PSG winning is quite big, as seen from the odds, betting on Chelsea to win has odds of 4.40 while PSG is -1.613 (1.613), but this is not a benchmark for taking big risks, I personally prefer over 2.5 or under 3.5, it is difficult to predict when a strong team is fighting
Quite an interesting shift in quotes, just recently they were like this:
5.30 - 4.30 - 1.61
Now in the source where I look at them they are as follows:
4.80 - 3.95 - 1.71
In fact, I am surprised because even 1.61 I considered generosity on the part of the bookmakers. I don't know what this is connected with (there is nothing in the news about one of the leading PSG players being poisoned or something like that), but usually such a sharp move on the part of bookmakers means that either they know something or fans are making a disproportionately large number of bets on the underdog.
Re: Is it possible to turn $0.2 into $10,000 in slot and sports games?
In slots, it is possible, and if you are lucky, you might be able to get it in 100 spins.
My story is turning $0.1 minimum bet to $500 in a slot game called Lab of Lunacy in Stake.com. I think I spent $20 before I received that max win, and I can say it's the most unforgettable thing that happened in my gambling life.
Turning $0.2 only might not be possible, though. You may need a higher amount of capital before you can try to increase your balance. It's not like you will get lucky in one or two rolls because most of the time, it's a losing streak first before a bonus will come.
My story is turning $0.1 minimum bet to $500 in a slot game called Lab of Lunacy in Stake.com. I think I spent $20 before I received that max win, and I can say it's the most unforgettable thing that happened in my gambling life.
Turning $0.2 only might not be possible, though. You may need a higher amount of capital before you can try to increase your balance. It's not like you will get lucky in one or two rolls because most of the time, it's a losing streak first before a bonus will come.
I have little experience in slots, but as I understand it, to get a multiplier x (if it is large) you have to play x*n spins on average (where n is a number significantly greater than 10) since among the usual losses there are small wins (RTP works evenly +-) and to get to a big win you first have to get to a bunch of small ones, a significant number of average ones and only then to a big one. That day you were very lucky.
Full fixtures for the opening round of the 2025/26 season:
The kick-off of the first game of the new season between Girona and Rayo Vallecano is scheduled for Fri 15th August.
Real Madrid's game against Ossasuna will take place slightly later, on Tue 19th, but there's seems to be some controversy with that game. Apparently Real and Atletico had an agreement with the Association of Spanish Footballers that, should any of them reach the quarter-finals of the FIFA Club World Club, their opening La Liga games would be postponed to later terms. But, despite Real reaching the semi-final, La Liga president, Javier Tebas has stated that Real's request to postpone the game was officially rejected.
More info here:
https://www.goal.com/en-us/lists/real-madrid-xabi-alonso-massive-blow-la-liga-opener-against-osasuna/blte9c595784207f1d3
The kick-off of the first game of the new season between Girona and Rayo Vallecano is scheduled for Fri 15th August.
Real Madrid's game against Ossasuna will take place slightly later, on Tue 19th, but there's seems to be some controversy with that game. Apparently Real and Atletico had an agreement with the Association of Spanish Footballers that, should any of them reach the quarter-finals of the FIFA Club World Club, their opening La Liga games would be postponed to later terms. But, despite Real reaching the semi-final, La Liga president, Javier Tebas has stated that Real's request to postpone the game was officially rejected.
More info here:
https://www.goal.com/en-us/lists/real-madrid-xabi-alonso-massive-blow-la-liga-opener-against-osasuna/blte9c595784207f1d3
6 days for the first round... I don't like such rounds even though they are convenient for betting. Easy start for the favorites so the bet on Real + Barcelona victory seems obvious, I haven't checked the odds yet but in total it should be at least +50% which is not bad. The bet on Atletico is in great question until they play a couple of rounds. In recent seasons, Simeone's team has begun to resemble Dortmund
Almost everyone hopes that the final match can run quite fiercely because if only one team is able to dominate the match, of course the watch will not be quite interesting. I also hope that Chelsea can put stronger pressure in the match because PSG is a team that is very ready to undergo the final match. So everyone just wants to see the final that is truly interesting and really entertaining even though most people have considered PSG to be able to get the Inter-Club World Cup trophy this time.
I think many people are hoping to start with that the game won't be interrupted by a thunderstorm and won't last 5-6 hours.
Overall, yes, it would be good to see a competitive game, not like the Champions League final when PSG makes a result in the first half and then everyone just waits for the final whistle. Or like in the game with Real. Probably everyone except PSG fans wants this. Well, PSG fans are ready to celebrate the historic quadruple right now.
Токены инвесторов залочены на 27 месяцев, так что выйти они при всем желании пока не имеют возможности.
На медвежке получат по полцента за штуку. Очень большая авантюра для инвесторов была верить информационному шуму и мишуре на оффлайн конференциях от Блюм. Зато вокруг Пампфана сейчас ажиотаж, вроде проект для щиткоделов и щитколюбителей, но токенсейл чуть ли не за считанные минуты прошел. И не помню я чтобы было столько рекламы от них, сколько было от Блюм. Может проблема Блюм еще была в том, что ставка была сделана исключительно на Телегу, типа королями узкой ниши хотели, в итоге ничего хорошего.
Да, в таких щитках как раз каждые полгода халвинг (-50%) так что полцента выглядят как целевым уровнем
Вообще неясен оптимизм инвесторов которые бабло отдали на 27 месяцев, проект изначально выглядел как добор крох по прошедшей темы, а они в долгосрок вложились.
P.S. Отсюда урок щиткоделам - после того как тема прошла пик, зарабатывать надо на инвесторах в инфраструктуру сдыхающей темы.
Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions
Fabrizio Romano has posted that Real Madrid wants €100m for Rodrygo if he is to leave this summer. First of all, i think that asking fee is outrageous, especially coming from a team that wants to master the art of getting players for free; they already did it with Mbappe and Trent, who knows which players they will court next towards the end of his contract and get him for free.
That said, i am not sure any team would pay €100m for Rodrygo, if that is the money they want, they can as well keep him, i think €80m at the most is a good price to buy Rodrygo.
That said, i am not sure any team would pay €100m for Rodrygo, if that is the money they want, they can as well keep him, i think €80m at the most is a good price to buy Rodrygo.
Why is it outrageous? He is 24 years old and the fact that he is not the best at Real does not mean that he will not be the best at another club. These are the prices now, and I think that Real has set this figure as a starting point for negotiations, most likely it can be reduced. If we talk about leaving for free, then he has a contract until 2028, so those who want him for free must wait three years.
Ter Stegen is clearly superfluous in this scheme, since in the short term Barcelona relies on Szczesny + Garcia and Ter Stegen has no chance even in the medium term, let alone the long term, where Garcia is the priority. According to the leaks, Barcelona wants to get rid of him, but he has no intention of leaving at all. I wonder if they will put as much pressure on him as they tried to put on De Jong, he has a contract until 2028, it's quite a long wait (and pay wages ).
).ter Stegen's current salary is 6.3 million euros per year. Not a small amount to pay at all if he stays until the end of his contract.
But I think he wouldn't like to stay where he is not wanted. But there is a more important question here...Will there be any team to be willing to sign him? In Europe I mean. Because of having a serious injury period I think teams would be more hesitant. Worst-case scenario, he would join a Saudi team (which isn't the worst for him though
).He is 33, he can only be a temporary option and it is unlikely that he will sign a contract with such a salary anywhere (in Europe). But I heard that he does not want to leave no matter what, since he considers himself recovered and ready to be number one. It seems that he played all the games after the injury without conceding goals, but he clearly thinks about the current state of affairs and not the future (as Barcelona thinks). I don't think Barcelona will convince him that he needs to leave.
As of the news today, Crystal Palace has been demoted from the Europa League to the Conference. We still remember how the qualified by beating Manchester City in the FA cup final to get the Europa League ticket. But the twist here is that, they cannot since Lyon too will be playing in the same Europa League. John Textor owns shares in both Palace and Lyon, (I think he owns majority shares) the thus bridges UEFA multi club ownership rules Which simply states that Clubs with the same ownership cannot play in the same competition. Crystal Palace might go to court for this, lol.
I wonder for what reasons they can go to court? These are the rules and they were known in advance.
I think the situation can be resolved in the same way as it was done with Girona (which also shouldn't have got into the Champions League as they belonged to the same group of owners who own City). They just have to change the ownership structure to formally comply with the rules, that's all.
~
В то же время глава ФРС может уйти в отставку
(https://x.com/pulte/status/1943746831256621564)
Представитель администрации Трампа сообщил, что глава ФРС Джером Пауэлл рассматривает возможность отставки.
В то же время глава ФРС может уйти в отставку
(https://x.com/pulte/status/1943746831256621564)
Представитель администрации Трампа сообщил, что глава ФРС Джером Пауэлл рассматривает возможность отставки.
Логичное звено в цепи. Пауэлл обозначил что ему западло ставку снижать ради хотелок трампыни, и ситуация такова что ему кажется рациональнее покинуть тонущий корабль чем бороться с сумашедшими.
Скоро пазл сложится окончательно и увидим "ракету" по всем активам из-за потока дешевых денег.
Понятно, что вряд ли Трамп прямо следит за крипторынком, чтобы обрубить в очередной раз взлёт ракеты, потому что он и в другое время может отчебучить, но пока что он каждый раз, да находит что-нибудь, чтобы охолодить оптимистичный рынок.~
Это не оптимистичный, а наоборот пессимистичный рынок - шорт фиата.
Re: ? FIFA Club World Cup 2025 - USA: Discussion Thread ?
Chelsea must play full defensive and not giving opportunity for PSG scoring goal at the early minutes, looking last match when PSG easily scoring until four goal against Madrid looks Alonso's tactician more offensive without fully defensive. If Chelsea fully play with defense and prefer counter attack I think have chance for winning the games and not conceded many goals such as easily in last three consecutives game PSG success scoring many goals.
Last three games in a row since knock out round, Chelsea have conceded two goals and success made clean sheet when eliminating Fluminense at semifinal round, believing with Chelsea if can play fully defense tactical have chance for winning the match and huge pressure for the early minutes if won't conceded goals from PSG as usually scoring goals every early minutes.
Last three games in a row since knock out round, Chelsea have conceded two goals and success made clean sheet when eliminating Fluminense at semifinal round, believing with Chelsea if can play fully defense tactical have chance for winning the match and huge pressure for the early minutes if won't conceded goals from PSG as usually scoring goals every early minutes.
Chelsea must play the bus and wait for a penalty shootout
It seems the weather will not be on their side (hotter weather would probably be to their advantage), but the rain will probably also help them defend.
PSG looks like a team without weaknesses, but who knows, maybe on Sunday there will be the same game as with Liverpool in Paris, when PSG should have won 3-0 but lost 0-1.
Re: Is it possible to turn $0.2 into $10,000 in slot and sports games?
This question may have been asked before.
But I'm still quite curious about someone's winnings. I often see people achieve fantastic wins with very small bets.
In my entire gambling career, I've only ever achieved a 1000x multiplier.
Turning $0.2 into $200.
In sports, it's even lower.
What about you? Do you have a true story to share?
But I'm still quite curious about someone's winnings. I often see people achieve fantastic wins with very small bets.
In my entire gambling career, I've only ever achieved a 1000x multiplier.
Turning $0.2 into $200.
In sports, it's even lower.
What about you? Do you have a true story to share?
In betting, my record is x130. I haven't played slots long enough to get to results like x1000 or higher but I don't think it's a difficult task, it's just a question of the number of bets made. Roughly speaking, to get x1000 we need to make so many bets that the casino would be in the black "allowing" such a win. RTP in slots is ~8%, so to get x1000 we need to play at least 1000*(1000/(1000*0.08)= 12500 games. This is the minimum value, but I calculated it empirically.
AI only provides statistics and analysis in previous matches, it does not mean that it will win in betting, it's just that many people are too easy to say AI can predict the match and then he makes a bet following its direction.
Yeah, AI is often used to look at team statistics for analysis needs but you can't fully trust what AI recommends for betting.
In betting there is no long term, so what AI says will not always be correct.
Yeah, AI is often used to look at team statistics for analysis needs but you can't fully trust what AI recommends for betting.
In betting there is no long term, so what AI says will not always be correct.
You say this as if statistics and analysis are not enough to make predictions. AI can evaluate statistics by thousands of parameters (which no human will ever be able to do) and this is enough to be more accurate than ordinary people. The problem is that, firstly, bookmakers have more advanced AI and data sets on their side, and secondly, the bookmaker simply has an advantage in terms of game design. But this does not cancel out the fact that AI can make high-quality predictions in sports events.
Re: ? Sportsbet.io ? FIFA Club World Cup ? Discussion thread
Champions League wildcards is a damn better idea. Saudi playing in Gold Cup is a good example of how this can work.
And this will not harm the tournament at all - given the new format, anything can happen in the group stage and no one will suffer. In the old format, someone could be disadvantaged, since it is difficult to add Al-Hilal to a group of 4 teams and not affect anyone's interests. In the new format, this is done with a snap of the fingers and everyone is happy.
Even the guys on Discord are talking about 0-0. If I were to put something big on it with a sliver of a chance, I'd be doing 1-1 instead. Or a BB with a red card and a penalty (though those may only come in Extra Time).
What's your best take on value KTChampions? Besides the 3/1 draw, I feel like a 55/10 boosted to 58/10 on Sportsbet does really look like a value Chelsea bet. Then again, they only win 7m more if they take the cup, already 90m in the bag for this tourney and all them player sales so really, it is a vanity affair.
What's your best take on value KTChampions? Besides the 3/1 draw, I feel like a 55/10 boosted to 58/10 on Sportsbet does really look like a value Chelsea bet. Then again, they only win 7m more if they take the cup, already 90m in the bag for this tourney and all them player sales so really, it is a vanity affair.
It is interesting that 1-1 is quoted as only 7.70, and 0-0 as 15.00. Moreover, BTTS Yes/No is 1.71/2.16. There must be some bias here. Or maybe the bookmakers think that PSG is invulnerable and the main part of the BTTS No coefficient is that Chelsea will not score a goal.
I like Chelsea Double Chance 2.30 and goalless draw (too high odds)
Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ FIFA Club World Cup ⚽ Discussion thread
PSG currently look like the ultimate force against the whipping boys, but the odds for the final are pretty standard:
5.30 - 4.30 - 1.61
If PSG wins in regular time (which everyone is probably sure of) then +61% for a single bet looks like easy money, right? I can't understand what the catch is. Of course Chelsea is a qualified team, but PSG looks much stronger.
5.30 - 4.30 - 1.61
If PSG wins in regular time (which everyone is probably sure of) then +61% for a single bet looks like easy money, right? I can't understand what the catch is. Of course Chelsea is a qualified team, but PSG looks much stronger.
PSG to win is definitely easy money and the odds is of good value looking at where both teams currently are, I don’t find Chelsea to win @ 5.3 tempting, quite honestly, If the 5+ Odds were to be for Chelsea to win the trophy maybe I could consider it, knowing fully well that I’m more likely to lose my money.
Yes, theoretically I can believe that Chelsea will hold out until the penalty shootout and be lucky there. Bookmakers, by the way, also consider this option as probable - the chances are 1 to 3.19, which is significantly less than 5+, which would be profitable.
I guess it's time to sum it up (there's no point for me to look at both pots haha), I hope the next Club World Cup will firstly not be held in the US, since delays of games due to weather are just nonsense. And secondly, I'm not even sure that this tournament is needed, players get year-round burnout, this is not normal. So far from what I've seen, I haven't noticed any real value/emotions that the fans received. This is a weaker version of the Champions League.
I would rather look at how external (in relation to Europe) clubs get wild cards in the Champions League. For example, those that in normal time zones can do it.
Nice! Gratz 
Just out of curiosity: what is the maximum bet on these slots? After all, if a lucky person wins x50,000 even on a $100 bet, it will be a significant blow (although, on average, the casino will still be in the black on this day). In general, it is very tempting to get 50k from 1 dollar, but still, I have not played anything for quite a long time where I do not have at least the illusion of control, so I prefer betting.
Just out of curiosity: what is the maximum bet on these slots? After all, if a lucky person wins x50,000 even on a $100 bet, it will be a significant blow (although, on average, the casino will still be in the black on this day). In general, it is very tempting to get 50k from 1 dollar, but still, I have not played anything for quite a long time where I do not have at least the illusion of control, so I prefer betting.
On this specific game, Max bet is just 50$ probably due to the high max multiplier.
On some provider that offers only x10,000, max bet is whooping 2000$ which is insanely high.
But those maximum multiplier is very low chance especially that the winning percentage on slot is unknown due to their close source code of their games.
$2,000 on a 10k multiplier results in a maximum win of $20 million. In fact, for a large casino, this is a normal amount, plus here they are insured by the fact that the multiplier is such that in order to have a chance to win these two million, the player must bet a fairly significant amount. Not everyone is ready to pay $2,000 for a slot spin. And it is clear that on average the player will spend much more money than 2000x10000 before getting the maximum multiplier. The chance there is definitely less than one in 10k.
Two days ago i decided to wager for the $1k poker tournament:
While the wager is $50, y decided to depo $100 (0.001 btc), And my wager strategy was, 10 $1 spin on each slot until lose all... The fact that i didn't get any bonus after 160 spins makes me wanna try again, And this time i send another 0.001 but this time to "stake", there my strategy was to bet always on the same slot that i have been playing there for a long time, and after some $2 rolls i get a Super Bonus on Nitropolis 4.
What can i say, that x312 wasn't bad at all with a $2 bet... But for a Super Bounus i was expecting the x50,000 (Max win on that slot). Walking away with $100k would be fun.
While the wager is $50, y decided to depo $100 (0.001 btc), And my wager strategy was, 10 $1 spin on each slot until lose all... The fact that i didn't get any bonus after 160 spins makes me wanna try again, And this time i send another 0.001 but this time to "stake", there my strategy was to bet always on the same slot that i have been playing there for a long time, and after some $2 rolls i get a Super Bonus on Nitropolis 4.
What can i say, that x312 wasn't bad at all with a $2 bet... But for a Super Bounus i was expecting the x50,000 (Max win on that slot). Walking away with $100k would be fun.
Nice! Gratz
Just out of curiosity: what is the maximum bet on these slots? After all, if a lucky person wins x50,000 even on a $100 bet, it will be a significant blow (although, on average, the casino will still be in the black on this day). In general, it is very tempting to get 50k from 1 dollar, but still, I have not played anything for quite a long time where I do not have at least the illusion of control, so I prefer betting.