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Showing 20 of 33 results by nattybear
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 01/08/2019, 15:30:52 UTC
I'm going to go with the reversals posted it the dashboard and see how it goes

Please note that it's not the table near the Stochastics, Indicating Range or Energy indicator widgets. This has the same data then the one in the Reversals tab.
Look further down in the Analysis text.

there is says:
Daily/weekly  REVERSAL TABLE
MINOR | MAJOR
BULLISH | BEARISH | BULLISH | BEARISH

This is the one I meant.

Except this also changes... My correspondence highlighted that and support was not able to confirm that this is the correct source to reference.

In April there was a bullish reversal elected that appeared in the textual analysis and the reversals segment which then disappeared a day later. From ALL areas.
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 01/08/2019, 14:51:04 UTC
In addition - below is extracts of one of my email exchanges with support.

----

On Sat, 6 Apr 2019 19:29:45 +0700   wrote ---- 
#original_sender {XXX}
From: XXX
Email: XXX

Topic: Bug or Error

Message: Hello, I'm writing to ask about the use of data and commentary. I'm finding that there is either missing or contradictory information between the commentary and reversals. This is more prominent in the daily commentary and reversals however also present in the weekly commentary/reversals occasionally. For example, the current market commentary (Fri 5th April) for the DJIA currently lists daily and weekly reversals which are NOT showing in the reversals segment. There have also been recent occasions where a reversal was listed on the Reversals segment (was elected) then subsequently disappeared from the segment. 

----

Their reply was generic and was more or less "data is accurate, trade when time and price meet, data is getting synced"

----

On Sun, 7 Apr 2019 6:24:13 +0700 ""  wrote ----
#original_sender {XXX}
From: XXX
Email: XXX

This (you didn't) doesn't answer my question... WHEN should we expect the data to be accurate across all segments?

In the interim I don't have any idea which set of data to trade with confidently. You don't seem to appreciate that unless the data points are consistent across all segments then there is a foundational issue with your system.
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 01/08/2019, 14:32:35 UTC

Or your phatom reversals that were debunked by the reversals being in the dashboard as pointed out by alex.


Debunked? Hardly... There is so much inconsistency across the multiple portals on the Socrates website. Indeed reversals would appear/disappear in the Reversals section, the textual commentary, and the main dashboard.

I had emailed Socrates support about this NUMEROUS times and they had no explanation nor could they suggest which one was correct. Which is exactly the reason why historical study of reversals is not adequate. Indicative perhaps. But for useful analysis it has to be future tested... Which takes us back to the same point that's been highlighted consistently... Someone just needs to show the evidence!

Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 01/08/2019, 14:29:02 UTC
...
Here is a link to a spreadsheet with hypothetical trading performance
...

You are going to fail.

I think I can say that because I provided the data in that spreadsheet.

But you are not going to fail because of that. You are going to fail because it is Armstrong's data.

And Armstrong's data is bad because he does not know what he is doing.

Martin Armstrong does not know what he is doing and that is why his trades are losing trades

And because Socrates suggests losing trades, that is why it is on the web making money by getting subscription money out of your pocket. THAT IS THE REAL TRADE AND IT IS A WINNING TRADE

I really laugh my head off how after so much intense reporting and in-depth analysis of this phenomenon some people still cannot resist.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog


@AnonymousCoder... You've added a lot of value and done well at exposing the serious and multiple flaws in MA/Socrates.

In order for this to gain more traction and broader recognition then people need to be able to evaluate and come to the same conclusion. As was the case with so many people already on this blog who have studied, attempted, and seen the holes in the system and MA's commentary.

Assisting them in that process is the best way of achieving wider acknowledgement as opposed to a combative angle.
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 26/07/2019, 12:35:45 UTC

The way you use this system is incorrect. The system is meant to be used in hindsight. Then you pick the signals that best match the situation that actually occurred.


Ughhh there I go trying to use it as tradeable insight again...  Roll Eyes

VIX has been on a steady downward trend all month.
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 26/07/2019, 10:32:07 UTC
I recall that July is meant to be a panic month according to Gumbi.

Granted, there's time for it to playout however so far it's only been a ~800pt trading range. Only April had a smaller range this year. Prior to that, we're going back to 2017.
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 23/07/2019, 21:26:32 UTC
I like to also mention what I observed in regards to reversals. As I stated in an earlier post, reversal are just a comfirmation. When I had access to Socrates and reversals after the 2015 wec I was able to match the reversals on a chart. What I found was, the first bullish reversal coresponded with the high of the previous rally and the second of the rally before the last. If the market was going sideways it was the high within that sideways move. My conclusion is the the reversal system is a derivative of Charting/TA. This is something anyone with access to the reversals can check. After trading/investing using TA for almost 21 years I couldn't justify paying $1800 a year on something I could do myself. I personally don't remember MA actually stating when someone should buy on the reversals, on the first, second or third? Maybe someone can clearify this.


I had very similar findings with my use of daily and weekly reversals. Very frequently using a Decision Points approach you would get a level which was very close to the reversals which Socrates would pump out (even within 10pts at times). This was one of the reasons why I didn't see the sense in continuing the Pro subscription on the Dow - I could do it myself without much effort.

I also find trading from Decision Points without MA/Socrates prediction efforts more reliable. I'm able to trade based on what the price movement is rather than MA's slanted view which in my experience has been very unreliable.
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 17/07/2019, 19:57:36 UTC

There is nothing Trump has said that is racist or misogynistic you can only imply he is a racist or against women indirectly but that is possible for just about any statement made. There is no way you can win this argument logically it is purely emotional but you can quote something he said and try your best. It sounds to me like you are the being sexist implying men cannot insult women just because of their gender. This is political correctness which is a disease. We judge other people by ourselves so this says a lot more about you than it does Trump. I guess you also believe Trump raped 26 women since there have been about that many accusations, you just don't know how ugly politics can get.

So is it now a crime to be against the religion of Islam which has been one of the most murderous religions? Mohammed was a warlord, no other prophet has cut off so many heads.


Keep the highlight wheel moving Gumbi. A short (and I mean very short) read of Trump's twitter feed and you'll find plenty of direct and implied racism.

A comment that discredits or demeans others only on the grounds of race or ethnicity is the foundation of racism... But interesting that you would choose this topic to defend on a blog that showcases the factual sham that is MA/Socrates.
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 17/07/2019, 11:12:25 UTC

Let's face it - Who wouldn't want to read the blog of an investment forecaster .... who built a self-aware computer that self-destructed in WTC 7 - the building that fell down of it own accord.


That is one I haven't heard before. Is that what MA claimed?
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 12/07/2019, 22:30:41 UTC
before I switch of my computer, this blog really made me laugh :

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/why-nobody-wants-to-forecast-the-business-cycle/

Haha...Read the question, looks like the questioner idolizes Armstrong!
I would really like to see who is behind this question. I think it's small guy with a beard.

It's true Dan we love Armstrong he has made us a fortune over the years. We can't thank him enough for his contribution to humanity nobody can take that away from him. The business cycle is one of the  most significant discoveries by Armstrong and will be remembered long after he has gone.


We 'love' Armstrong... You might want to back off on the kool-aid there. The issue is that you still can't account for all the times MA gets it wrong.

It's only once you can reconcile the incorrect predictions that he makes (which are captured in detail across blog) then you can claim his immortality.

His contribution to humanity? Spare me the bulls&#t...
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 11/07/2019, 21:46:27 UTC

Looking forward to seeing this. You might need to make the sheet public as it leads to an authorisation request
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 11/07/2019, 17:03:52 UTC
Panic Cycle


Everything in Amstrong's terminology can be interpreted in multiple ways, i.e. is ambiguous.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/panic-cycles-are-different-from-volatility/

Panic Cycles are either a big move in one direct, or they are outside reversals that exceed and penetrate the previous range.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud


Which could be many months?

So in easily accessible language, it's either 1) A 'big' move within the range of a previous month (how is big defined?), or, 2) a month which includes outside price action (above or below) and finishes within the previous range...

Edit: 3) It could be a big move outside the range of a previous month.

So even more months could qualify on those terms?

Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 11/07/2019, 16:56:26 UTC
So we will either go up or down.

Folks, you'll need to pay to get such useful advice.

Essentially yes... The fundamental issue that comes with using MA commentary.

Not only do you need to personally interpret the often sensationalised text it will also have multiple outcomes that leave you (not infrequently) waiting on the sidelines 'waiting'.
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 11/07/2019, 16:38:28 UTC

I exited for the close on the 10th since we elected daily reversals on the Nasdaq and Dow. we have another daily bullish at 26966.10. This month is a panic cycle so we either move to the upside to 28k area  or retest the lows made the previous month if we elect the weekly bullish at 26951.82 it should be to the upside.

August is a turning point and October is the next so a high in August implies a low in October. the week of the high/low looks like the week of the 29th or the 5th.

I'm open to being corrected however that isn't what MA classifies as a panic cycle.

A panic cycle for a nominated time period is a movement that encompasses both the high and low of the previous time period's range. In this case, if July is to be a panic month then the market needs to fall away below ~24,600 before month end. Having followed the system as a pro subscriber and reading all of the publicly available content there isn't criteria of 'if this event occurs then a panic cycle definition changes/is mitigated'.

That aside - the weekly reversals are empirically not reliable tools as has been demonstrated previously. See the bearish weekly reversals that were elected at the end of May immediately prior to the market rallying.

Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 08/07/2019, 08:05:22 UTC
DanB1 a  live trade as promised I have entered a short position on the Dow at 26900 looking to exit around the 26550 area

Please allow for private messages to be sent to you

Okay, thanks. Thought you were gone:)

So, entered the trade because a bullish reversal was not elected? Or a bearish was elected? Or the array's showed a turning point?
Can you please you explain? The thing is that it's not about this specific trade. It's about showing that you can trade according to the reversals and arrays and that it works and it's a repeatable process.

If you can let us know here on the blog.
Looking forward to it!

We failed to elect a key weekly bullish reversal but the main reason for the entry is because Armstrong has stuck his neck out here and said we needed to close this week above 26951.82 to imply a further advance.  Also the 1st of July has been a turning point with the next showing up as the 8th and normally one turning point is followed by the opposite event on the next, on the energy model we are seeing the market making new intraday highs while the energy models are declining which indicates this rally is not sustainable. On the weekly energy model we are seeing the energy peak before the price high which indicates we may be forming a temporary high.  The energy model is very important to understand and helps you to identify when the market is over-bought or over-sold.

Th exit point is the most immediate daily bearish reversal which lies at 26536.32 but we have crash mode technical support at 26617 which may also offer support.

Careful on MA commentary Gumbi... As per the support staff it's not something to rely on and electing weekly reversals haven't proven to be profitable recently...

In saying that - for someone who trades daily I would take a ~400pt movement!
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 04/07/2019, 11:01:47 UTC
...
Ah yes another MA prediction has fallen short. 2019 was a consolidation year... No new highs, no lower lows. Yet here we are - all-time highs across the board.

Could you please provide the URL where Martin Armstrong predicted this. Many thanks. I also see that the CAC-40 French stock market has a new high. He predicted a turning point recently, see https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/forecasting-turning-points/

but I haven't found the original message where he predicted that this would be THE high as I remember.

He's been calling it for most of this year so a dig through blog posts will uncover numerous comments.

A selection is below from the posts that I received while having the Pro subscription so not all links may be publicly accessible.


1st April 2019 “The Share Market Outloo” (Yes - Outloo - that was his typo)

While we DO NOT yet see new highs unfolding above 2018 until we enter 2020, what does emerge here is that we appear to be building a much high base during this period of a downward cycle.

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5ca180547bc98d092c1efdad


2nd April 2019 “The Dow - Euro - Capital Flows”

We can see that our Energy models on the Weekly Level continue to make new record high even though the Dow has not made new high above that of 2018. This model alone is confirming we are going to make new historical high beyond 2020

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5ca2c76e1dd9531104b93d30


14th May 2019 “Dow for May 14, 2019”

That this is still a consolidation period and it is not likely to change until we enter 2020.

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5cdaaead1dd95316c8c07acb


15th May 2019 “Dow for May 15th, 2019”

Once more, we do not yet see a major correction of 40% as most seem to be calling. We are consolidating ideally for 2 years from the 2018 high into 2020 before any breakout unfolds.

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5cdbb8de7bc98d0e00ad5587


6th June 2019 “The Dow into July”

Once again, we do not see a breakout to the upside until the ECM turns and likewise, we do not see a major crash.

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5cf922077bc98d1474efd2d0
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 04/07/2019, 10:09:05 UTC
No new highs in 2019
Oh wait, that's commentary! It doesn't count!

We may do this, but if that, then that also, as long as this and that which may be a high or a low so the opposite should take place at this number 2 days from now as long as we hold that other number that is 1,000 points away unless it is an inversion which can also happen depending on this other number that is also far away.
Oh he got it right! See? Socrates is amazing, even if I lost money on it.

But MTL4, my experiences and thoughts on Socrates are similar to yours. I have also learned things from Armstrong that I have modified and incorporated in my own trading with tremendous success to the point where it won't even be believed by most. But that's fine, its all about the gains anyway. I still respect him as a guy who can think differently and give out new ideas- its just that they frequently don't work and he won't admit it either. One must not be drawn in by him, no matter what he says.

Ah yes another MA prediction has fallen short. 2019 was a consolidation year... No new highs, no lower lows. Yet here we are - all-time highs across the board.


Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 03/07/2019, 17:02:06 UTC

I don't have to do anything to satisfy you.  I'm happy with what Socrates provides and have had no problems.  Like a previous poster said - I won't take anyone's word for anything and suspect their data selection is incorrect leading to a flawed analysis.   

Slow clap for your attempt.  Learn to read the fine print.


Correct - and I'm not asking you to satisfy any of my questions...

Here's the catch though - if you want to demonstrate your credibility then you only need to step up and provide evidence (i.e. live trades using Socrates data) which demonstrate the effectiveness of the platform. Without that everything which you comment on - is baseless.

Like others here I've done my research. I've used the system for an extended period and found, in the best case scenario it doesn't provide much value above basic technical analysis, and in the worse case it is flat out incorrect leading to trading losses. You only need to look at the large movements across the Dow in the last 8mths to see how Socrates/MA failed categorically.
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 02/07/2019, 22:17:10 UTC
I think I see where the problem is - you are making assumptions using the wrong data to attempt to make your point.  He is likely talking about other elected reversals much further back in a time series of the pricing move - not the most recent move.  If you look at many of his past charts these elected reversals can be many months or even years apart.

I can't spend the time rummaging through all the data or blog posts - but I'd bet that's the case.


*slow clap*

Excellent rebuttal... I've just bolded a couple of statements in your comment that highlights the same ambiguous writing that comes from MA... Another unveiled... I'd love to see the troll bill that MA pays out - that's really become one of the most reliable explanations for the constant rotation of new users here with zero evidence to contradict the observations made across the board.

If you want to attempt a legitimate debate here is how it works. You counter an argument with research and evidence which DEMONSTRATES your point. In this scenario, we have an "it's likely", and an "I'd bet". However, let us not forget the same non-descriptive illusionary reversals that occurred at some point in the past which we have evidence of... Oh wait... No we don't...




Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
nattybear
on 02/07/2019, 18:33:45 UTC

I agree with you 100%. Nobody really talks about the inefficiency of the Socrates system and what impact this has on trading success. It takes years to master it according to statements made by support staff. And my work to disentangle the system to finally prove beyond any doubt that it is a fraud also took years.

To react in real time and have the data ready to go for this case:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

That is not something that the average user of the system can do. You need to be prepared for that.


Then if you want to use it in your trading activities, the research you need to perform every day takes so much time that by the time you are finished, the opportunity is already gone. This complicated reversal system is really a legacy from the time where it would have been advantageous because the reversals are available ahead of time in batches and can be sold with reports. Nowadays, immediacy is required, and the reversal system is doomed to fail.

Taking this legacy system online on the web is a bad joke. To make this clear, a minimum requirement would be a stock scanner scanning more than just 1,000 symbols, and the ability to analyze any security dynamically. Meaning to analyze a stock that Socrates has never seen before.

Look at the type of people lurking around here looking for answers. These people have nothing to do all day and will perhaps not even trade.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud


In many ways putting Socrates online and giving the level of access to data will actually be a detriment to MA and Socrates (if not downfall). More people will trade based on the 'concrete' numbers and commentary... Find it quantitatively lacking and then (hopefully) walk away because now it's clearly measurable. Either it works or it doesn't and he's opened up the platform for everyone to evaluate that in more detail than before...

Of course... He'll probably keep the scores of people who buy into his perspective and showboating but I'd expect any genuine trader who analyses their trades will find Socrates lacking value.