dont we need to see these charts created from different start points to see the effect more recent price levels have on the forecasted lines?
eg start one at say $5 and another at $100 and another at $1000. The figures for possible future prices would still look very impressive but not quite as huge as this chart shows.

in some earlier posts on this thread about the number of cases where the father is not the biological father of the child there were extraordinary numbers quoted.

It is around 1.8% in new Zealand and likely to be close to that in many countries -  amuch lower percenatge than other quoted but still a fairly large number when you count them in groups eg children currently 0-15.

Under some circumstances fathers who find out are entitled to refunds of child support/custody payments.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/parenting/93634977/Sex-lies-and-a-baby-When-dads-discover-they-aren-t-the-father-after-all

this chart is great. it shows lots of things but mainly the benefits of not selling and even if you buy at a 'worst possible time"  it all comes right
eg if you only got into bitcoin at the height of the goxxing and spent $5,000 at a $1000 price it would have given you 5 bitcoins. It would take about 3.5 years for the price to recover to that point and another 0.5 years for it to be at $10,000.

 ie your $5000 has in 4 years become $50,000 or the equivalent of an 80% annual compounding interest rate if the money was in the bank and during that period the banks would have only given you say a 3% compounding rate. No wonder they are scared.
It makes it a "no brainer" that for all - big and small- that you have at least some of your savings in bitcoin.

Is my arithmetic reasonably accurate?

In terms of adoption by the masses FUD is not a real concern as they do not know "enough" about bitcoin for the FUD to affect them. They are at an earlier stage eg I was in hospital over the weekend and said to the nurse i was a bitcoin fan.
She
1. has heard of it  ie did not reply "What is bitcoin?" so its slowly getting down to everybody
2 had a basic concern about it not being a "real coin" ie it was just alot of numbers and she could not touch it like cash

I have others say things like it is too expensive as they think they need to buy a "whole "coin.

So we should ignore the FUDsters and spend our energy on possible adopters.
My answers to that not being real is to point out their bank accts and electronic wage payment to it each week are not really real either but they accept that as normal. To the issue of being too expensive I say that the word bitcoin should be seen for some meanings as word like "sterling" ie it describes a currency - you cannot buy 1 sterling but you can buy 1 pound. it's not an ideal comparison but it helps

its not the only social media body that is nervous. Facebook has banned any advertising pages that cover ICOs, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. You can still post mentioning these things but cannot have your post "boosted" . Boosted is facebook speak for paying them to spread it to a defined demographic rather than organicly.

A better way to think about it is to see that bitcoin has now established firmly itself as digital gold and its "store of value" has been holding up for years now despite many threats including the latest lot.
Even if it struggles to be a fast payment system (and Lightning etc may fix that) it is still a remarkable investment. If you want to get enthused about possible future prices follow the BETI chart maker

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0

So ignore the current price at any time and just keep buying slowly. That has proven to be the key for all those that started when it was $50, $100 or $1000. It will be so for some time to come. Don,t wait for big dips (though they may come as bitcoin is heavily speculated) as it is hard to pick them (think back to when it was $240 for months and no one really bought up large).

add in the term "capitulation".

 bears and one off posters use it all the time and its sound great as its a very emotive term. they sometimes add "total' or 'real' or "final" as a prefix as though this makes the price drop even more sensational/likely.

yes if in a war and if I am on the side that capitulated i would care very much it happened.

but is is meaningless to those that own bitcoin for the longer term since they do not see the the current price (at around $250 as anything more than just a current price) so if it drops to say $60 ('a typical so called capitulation price ") they will still own the same number of bitcoins and will wait for it to trend up again. They will not give up believing in bitcoin nor get out of being bitcoin owners so they are not in any sense 'capitulating'.

I do though love some of the colourful ways it gets mentions eg

In a December 2013 post a person wrote "For final capitulation to happen,  fear has to leave the scene to despair and eventually apathy".

so i would like not to see its use die out (or be given up or to capitulate)

excuse the corny bit at the end - i could not help myself

simply holding might work based on past record. if you bought in oct 19 2011 you got a bitcoin for $2.27 so now you have 100x your buy in price.
lets assume the growth rate flattens out and it takes now 3 times along to go up the same way means holding for about 9 years.

considering bitcoin adoption is still effectively nil ie demand is miniscule it is entirely possible to get there and may be sooner. Sure bitcoin is essentially an all or nothing stock but if you think it is going to die you would not be buying at all  - but if you are a believer then things look bright.

be patient if you are only buying in now

 

agree. normally where you are the decision-maker/rule settter in a field you cannot go back into the market place eg judges cannot practice again, auditors-general cannot practice again and I think ombudmen cannot set up offering advisory etc services after they finish their term.

it is not a good look - but sadly the financial sector often seem to work by a different set of rules.  

I believe that the long term future is bright because bitcoin and the case to be made for it in terms of cheap way to remit funds has not even begun to be heard by the vast majority.

For example here in New Zealand we have about 4 million people. We have a website called 'stuff' which is the  website for the largest and very dominant newspaper organisation in the country.

if you search the site for bitcoin you get just 500 results and none of the top 10 items the search throws up really talks about bitcoins benefits. (its all drugs, price collapse from $1000 etc).

Yet remittances for example to the Pacific Islands from expats working here is big business.

And the savings from using bitcoin can be substantial.

eg Currently transferring NZ$500 by the banking system after all fees means in fact on average only $451 of actual value is transferred.

Keep calm and carry on.
  

no i think is bad ie bad for these type of products. if the early adopters to something (here a way of getting into the market without actually owning bitcoin) get burnt  - as i assume they bought their shares at a much higher value a year ago - and in the longer term there is no material benefit (premium) from doing something (eg buying GBTC over bitcoin itself) then GBTC will just wither on the vine.

agree "1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin" rates very high on any list but what is the best of the best is the huge handdrawn arrow on any chart. The poor data (eg very short time period) or the poor trendline (eg wrong starting point) is all somehow supposed to be overlooked by the viewer if the future directional arrow by the chartist  is large enough, thick enough and in a vibrant colour. 

We surpassed Maxim Magazine. If Bitcoin is more important than hot girls naked, you know moon is guaranteed.
[/quote]

Bitcoin, fiat and everything else is not, and never will be, more important than hot girls naked. You need a cup of tea and then take a nap and when you wake up you will be back in the real world. 

yes I think it is but i think that is "natural' in the sense that as time goes on for various reasons things get name changes - people used to say they were about to go on the internet. now they would say I am about to go on facebook or google or whatever. A use is often a good descripton for something.

i think it can only be positive for bitcoin especially since it has had a chequered past in some eyes.

also people do not care about what TV remote they use they just want access to the TV image. So they will not care if bitcoin is doing the work of the remote in things using the blockchain.

agree with others that bitcoin is what will be used - it works well doing what it does so there is no need for people to start up their own coins/tokens. that being said some people will - in part to scam others or because they think they are a "big' enough corporation they could sustain their own token

I see bitcoin being a bit like electric bicycles (ebikes).

There are already lots of forms of transportation and most work fine for those that prefer each type for their particular needs. I see cars as being visa etc. Ebikes will fill a niche but that niche can be quite large worldwide.
Remember bitcoin is not and never set out to offer chargebacks. agree that is a drawback if competing for the car market but not for the ebike market which bitcoin is.

Bitcoin is ideal for non chargeback situations eg sending money to friends, relatives.

Agree it is cumbersome but some of that will improve when regulated exchanges etc are set up. also just like ebikes - they are what they are eg if it rains you get wet. If you want to stay dry use a car. It stops "mass" adoption but people that use visa also want the credit that goes with it so bitcoin was never going to appeal to that part of the visa market ie be "mass adopted".

Will it go to the moon? better to think it already has - I happen to think bitcoins true price is about $60 but considering it was $2 only a few years back it has already gone to the moon if you believed in it back then. I also think it is still on a strong growth as it has not even begun to fill its niche. So i see it going above $500 in a few years if not sooner. it may never be worth $10,000 but nobody involved with bitcoin promised that. they did not promise $250 but that is where we are.



 

 

with all this messy way this quazi etf works why is not the following also possible until (if ever) COIN arrives.

I set up a company in a country (X) that sees bitcoin as a commodity.  I buy 20,000 bitcoin.  I then set up a company in the US for example which buys company x. The US company has 1 million shares. People are able to buy the shares and sell them to others as well.

I make some money on fees and an etf like product is immediately available to people - no year long wait etc.

Comments?
 

true it will in theory cost twice as much but may not in practice. A good example is here in new zealand where a smelter takes quite a bit of our total power at a very low price. When that was to be raised by the power provider (a government owned company) the government gave it 400 million so it could "afford' not to raise its prices so much. (the smelter  had said the higher prices would mean 400 job losses in a high unemployment region so the government caved in). Chinese miners may have deals that have the same effect ie as the price rises it is deemed in the public interest if the state subsidies things so the actual effective price rise is nothing like double.

Hi

we have all noticed how "quiet' bitcoin is lately but this chart shows up just how dramatic is has been.

it is to be expected that as you compare longer to shorter time frames volatility would be less (though not necessarily true for bitcoin) but it is getting boringly stable but in terms of attracting in new people it is I think good as its less "scary".

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2gRnBSBSf-K2axqIyZXUKUAJ2cgby3-LiFJuCrHQ9c/edit#gid=0

 I am bullish. back in oct 2011 bitcoin was $3. I see this as a real number not a goxed number for example. In the next 12 months it went up 2-3 times depending on which numbers you use.
so bitcoin can easily have good growth of that level when it is not being goxed.

so I take a possible price in oct 2015 and see what the price might be in oct 2016 using the year on year change to get to the Oct 2015 price from $3.
The figures are below
eg if price drops as some predict to a "true" bottom of $100 the year on year change has been 2.39 so I see bitcoin being $239 in oct 2016.
so if i bought now and even if there was a big drop to $100 within a year I would be roughly back where I bought at. Obviously if the price is about where it is now (250) the price might be one year on nearly 800. Even if my extrapolation overstates things by say 50% a price in Oct 2016 might still be nearly $400 a year later -  great gains
It works for me.


100   239

200   574

250   796   
   
300   945
   
   

agree entirely - the system worked fine at 10c per bitcoin and at $1000 per bitcoin and will at any future price. it will take some time for people to accept that without regulated exchanges etc gox like effects/problems will always happen but it is not a 'bitcoin effect/problem".
Same goes with drug dealers using it. Who cares  - many more drug deals are being done every day with fiat than with bitcoin.
The $20 fiat bill in their pocket can be spent on groceries or drugs. Nobody cares either way.

Once more recognisable/traditional systems sit around the transaction process from person A to B, bitcoin will take off.