Seeing that none of this has anything to do with BFL's late delivery on their products.. or anything to do with what BFL is called out for on these forums.. it's obvious nothing is wrong with this picture.  If they have a subpoena.. they will go talk to a commission in NY.. hash things out.. answer some questions.. and that's it.  A subpoena is not a "charge" or anything to do with threats against BFL to "SUE YOUR PANTS OFF!!" or "..GOING TO CONTACT THE BBB, FTC, FBI, ETCETC".

Well let's flip the possibilities.. and then add in a dash of reasoning..

If someone paid ~2.5 BTC to buy a Jalapeno right now.. and then 3 months from now BTC plunges to 5$ a BTC again..  Would that customer.. or YOU.. be DEMANDING that you get your 2.5BTC back?  You think if BFL forced the 2.5BTC on you when that only added up to ~$12.50, that that would be ok?  

Let's look at the truths though.  When they charged people in BTC.. they were NOT charging people for direct BTC.  The site had USD prices listed as the main price.. bolded.  Below that they had an amount that added up to however many bitcoins that amount in USD costs.  The sale was in USD.  If you wanted to pay in Canadian dollars, or pesos, and if they allowed it, they would have sent you the bill in USD along with an amount in pesos.. or Canadian dollars that equaled the USD price.  If the payments never had USD listed, or the website was not advertising in USD, I could see the confusion, and the complaint but they were.  Plain and simple.   What you chose to take out of that other than, "This US based company, who buys things with US dollars, who was invested in with US dollars, is selling a product for US dollars" is your own fault.

What about all the online retailers taking bitcoin as payment.  Do you mean to tell me if they offer returns (say 30 day for electronics) that I can get my product, but have 30 day insurance that if bitcoin goes WAY up in price I can force a return, and get bitcoins that are worth twice the amount?

...can no one see the logic in this?  Can no one see the MAJOR scams that would come out of this being a common practice?  If the price of bitcoins tanked like my example at the top of this post, and butterfly labs was offering refunds back in BTC worth 1/20th the cost they originally were worth, EVERYONE would be calling that a scam, and so would I.

From what I have heard, this is incorrect.  If they have shipped YOUR order then there is no return for a refund.  If they have not shipped your order and you order shows "Processing", then you can receive a refund.  Of course if you email once and hope on BFL to answer your email, they may ship before your email gets processed. 

I love how you have resorted to changing the argument.  Find once where I said SPECIFICALLY that him choosing BFL SPECIFICALLY was a good or bad idea.  You can pick anything out of 1 sentence, but it requires you to actually COMPREHEND what you are reading to understand the whole paragraph.  It is not our fault that you just read things without actually thinking or comprehending.

The argument and conversation was specifically based on the fact that he said he would not be able to recoup his 200BTC.  It is not our fault after all of your rambling that you forgot what you were arguing about.  My argument towards him was related to him not being able to get his 200BTC back and the fact that he was comparing spending 200BTC in june (at the time worth 1299) and could have spent 80BTC for Avalon batch #3 in March (worth ~$7500).  Plain and simple.  

We already discussed the fact that you don't care what the price of bitcoin is, you just want bitcoins.  The rest of us want bitcoins because they are worth money.

Thank you ThatDGuy

couldn't have said it better myself.

ahhh yes, as I had mentioned...


..but that is ok, k9quaint will continue to argue a point even though the other SEVERAL factors I included make no sense.  It's like saying..

Mezzomix said he wants to be launched into space duck taped to a homemade rocket!  It is possible so you are wrong!!!  When the actually premises of the idea is true (yes, if you had a nice enough rocket, you could certainly launch yourself into space).. but the truth of the matter is, he will die before he gets there.. since you know.. there are other FACTORS at play there.  But instead of seeing how ridiculous the idea is, you just argue the fact that it is possible to prove a point.  A point that most people would not care about.

If Mezzomix thought that when he ordered the BFL device, that you would be able to mine MORE BTC than what you purchased it for, then in the words of the Knight in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.. "He chose... poorly".

When I ordered in August 2012, I thought "No matter if I get my device now, or later, I'm betting on the price of BTC to go up when the reward halves so I think I will still make a profit."  Now I had done my due diligence and found out that they were notorious for late shipping, over promising and under delivering.. so I personally thought that the shipping would be late.  Of course I didn't think it would be THIS late. Whether or not the price went up because of the reward halving, I am still going to profit.  In fact, my 3 GPU's I have are still mining away making anywhere from $150-$250 a month, and they only equal ~1.35GH/s.  If I can still profit with them, then I'll be just fine with ~40GH/s of devices.

Ok ThatDGuy. 

I think we can see where the disconnect is with these guys.  They are basically saying that the exchange rate has absolutely nothing to do with their investment in BTC.  So yes, I agree that if your sole purpose was to mine BTC and hold on to BTC with no regard to how much they are actually WORTH in USD.. then yes, you will not get back an equal amount of BTC. 

But in an effort to get out of the "only black and white" and into the grey area (which is where most of us miners exist)...

So in their minds, if someone paid ~24BTC today to buy a Single, and they received their miner in September, and let's say the USD price in September (when they receive their Single) of a bitcoin was down to $15 USD.  Lets also say that because of this dramatic price drop that several thousands of people with ASIC and GPU miners left bitcoin mining therefore making the difficulty drop dramatically.  So with the new price and difficulty, let's say it is possible for a person to make 48 BTC in 6 months.  Would you concider it a wise investment?  You originally paid 24 BTC and now within 6 months you have  DOUBLED your BTC!!  So originally you paid 24BTC (at the time worth 2400$) and in September-February you mined 48 BTC (at the time worth $720). But of course since these people don't care about exchange rates, THEY WIN!! right?

..and please don't knit pick about the specifics of this theoretical situation.  This is not to argue what the price/difficulty/ of BTC will be in the future, or to speculate on BFL's shipping schedule.  This is SPECIFICALLY designed to show you the mentality of people like k9quaint and others arguing this point.  The fact is, MOST of us actually care what the exchange rate is on a BTC.  If BTC's exchange rate were to stay the same, I, along with the majority of miners would rather have 20 bitcoins worth 100$ than 200 bitcoins worth 1$.  Obvious there is a small amount of people who don't so there is really no arguing with them.  Either they have an ENTIRELY different way of thinking or they are trolling.  Either way they will not be swayed.

However what I AM saying is that most people (except for the VERY small percentage of people in this thread) care how much return they get back in fiat..  Wells Fargo still doesn't take BTC for my mortgage payment and if it did, it would STILL be based on how much BTC is worth in dollars

Absolutely wrong.  When people purchased BFL or Avalon, there was no guarantee that they would be receiving a product or when.  It was PURE speculation and a gamble as well.  People decided to take this gamble and base their purchases on speculation.  Speculation that the price would not drop, speculation that they would receive a product, and speculation that that product would be hashing the amount advertised.

Basically you are saying "never buy miners" because so far, none of them are shipping the same day.

This is a ridiculous argument too.  I paid in BTC for one order, but I also paid in paypal for another with fiat.  That money could have just as easily been converted to bitcoin.  Butterfly labs has always had the DOLLAR AMOUNT of their products.  They have never just had a BTC price.  The reason for that is their devices are purchased in dollar amount.  

And there is a risk at ANY point.. this is bitcoin.  Hindsight is ALWAYS 20/20.  As many people have said including myself, what if bitcoins went down to 3$ a bitcoin after he purchased this miner for 200BTC?  He would have went to the BFL webpage to see that they were offering the same product for 400 BITCOINS!!  But in the grand scheme of things it would have still said $1299 USD.

..and when BTC crashed to 3$.. was it REALLY economic for ALL people to buy instead of mine?  What was the difficulty then?  What was the electricity costs of the person mining?  What if it crashed even further to $1.50?  

Way to many factors to be so black and white.  Using hindsight is never a good thing to anyone Captain Obvious

http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/300x300/38643694.jpg

This is such a lame bullshit statement and what I call "cherry picking" your circumstances.  No matter what the outcome, you will ALWAYS be right because you are the type of customer that has to complain..

First off, lets set some clear facts. 

In June 2012 BTC was in the neighborhood of 5-6.5$ per bitcoin.  You paid 200BTC for your product. 

When Avalon batch 3 came out for preorder, (March) bitcoins were anywhere between 35$ and 90$ (I could be "slightly" off on this so no nitpicking).

So would you rather have paid 200BTC @ 6$ a bitcoin?  Or would you rather have paid 80BTC @ 35$ a bitcoin?  Let's also turn the whole equation around.  Lets say a month after you purchased your BFL device, bitcoins dropped to 1$ a coin and stayed there.  If bitcoins were worth 1$, do you think Avalon would have sold a miner at 80BTC still?  Would they even have sold a miner at all?  If bitcoins were 1$ each, I can guarantee you people would not have made mining devices and if they did, no one would have purchased them for thousands of dollars unless the difficulty was so low that they made 200BTC PER DAY.

So with all of this said.. YOU would not be here today complaining about the 200BTC you never made back.  YOU would be complaining that it will take forever to make back the 1200-1300$ it cost for you to buy the BFL device.

People like you, and there are plenty in this forum, like to mold their argument based on whatever makes them win instead of using common sense.

If you receive a 60GH/s device in the next month.. next 2 months.. next 6 months.. will you make your 200BTC? no..  That would be ridiculously greedy of you to moan about not making $20,000 back on your $1200 investment.  But will you make your $1200 back?  Yes.  Will you make more than your $1200 back.. ABSOLUTELY.  Unless bitcoin takes a nosedive to 5$ again, you will most CERTAINLY see a return on your investment in fiat. 

I guess the appropriate answer would be.. would you rather have 200 bitcoins worth 6$ a piece that you originally invested, or would you rather have 58 (the amount you can mine in a month currently with 60GH/s) worth 100$ a piece?

Lets also see how much in fiat we are talking about from June 2012 (When you ordered) to October 2012 (when they said they would ship, and the prices at that time) to a month from now (estimating doubled difficulty as conservative number, and 100$ bitcoins).  From the bitcoin calculator:


June 2012:


Difficulty Factor :  1,500,000
Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second) : 60,000
Exchange Rate ($/฿):  6.00
 


 Coins Dollars
per Day ฿20.12 $120.70
per Week ฿140.81 $844.88
per Month ฿611.53 $3,669.21




October 2012: (Butterfly labs supposed shipping date)

Difficulty Factor :  3,000,000
Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second): 60,000 
Exchange Rate ($/฿): 12.50
 


               Coins Dollars
per Day ฿10.06 $125.73
per Week ฿70.41 $880.09
per Month ฿305.77 $3,822.09



July 2013: (Doubling the difficulty which is most likely not going to be this high in only 1 month)


Difficulty Factor :  30,000,000
Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second) : 60,000
Exchange Rate ($/฿) :  100.00
 


 Coins Dollars
per Day ฿1.01 $100.58
per Week ฿7.04 $704.07
per Month ฿30.58 $3,057.67


Now that is at DOUBLE the difficulty next month.  The next difficulty raise is estimated to be 17 million from 15.  This happens every 2 weeks so the possibility of it getting to 30 million by even late July is still pretty slim unless a MASSIVE amount of miners hit the market this month.

I'd be happy with a 2 week ROI. And I know what people are going to say in response is, and here are my answers:

"BUT THIS IS ALL SPECULATION"
So is everything else in this thread.  You can't complain about someone speculating if your argument is also pure speculation

"BUT I WANT MY BTC BACK!!"
This is just like the people demanding refunds in BTC.  Ridiculous.  If bitcoin crashed to 1$ a bitcoin, would you be ok with making 200BTC then?  Only 200$ worth of your original 1299 spent?  Is that what you consider a return on your investment? 

"BUT BFL WON'T SHIP BY JULY, THEY NEVER WILL"
Still speculation.  I'm willing to bet that a June 2012 order will most likely be seeing their shipment by next month.  Now someone who ordered in June 2013?  That is a whole other ballgame.

Man.. are you both serious?  I know it is hard to pick up on sarcasm via the internet.. but shit.. this is most OBVIOUSLY a joke.  Please read the link.

On topic though.. that was pretty funny.  Kind of rare when something from bitcointalk makes me laugh but judging by the two quotes above I can see why.

Good lord K9.. might want to find someone else to argue with cause you are getting your ass handed to you in this thread.  At least Puerto has the sense to just make a couple of broad pop-shots at BFL.. but ThatDGuy is eating your lunch.  I'd find an irrational BFL "fanboi" to argue with in another thread.

As for the original topic, which I have already commented on.. I will summarize my projections for the future:

1.  There will be no mass cancellation of orders... ever.  Unless another company starts shipping as soon as orders come in, and they sell their product for anywhere CLOSE to the current hashing capability/$$$ ratio that BFL is, it isn't going to happen.   I've said it before and I'll say it again, people have been waiting for close to a year now.. do you think with all the reported progress from BFL that they are suddenly going to lose this patience?  It's not going to happen.  (disclaimer before someone like k9 cherry picks this point to argue.. I said "reported progress".  It could still be a lie/overstatement/fluff)

2.  BFL is not going bankrupt.  If this "mass exodus" would have happened about 6 months ago, I could have seen this as a possibility (even though 6 months ago, the idea of a mass exodus was even more impossible than now).  6 months ago, they did not have a working prototype.  Well now they do and are shipping out, not at their full 400 a day capacity.  Let's say for arguments sake that ONLY the jalapenos are being made and ever will be because they decided not to continue making or designing large hashing machines.  They still have the jalapenos designed and working, and if they cranked out about 2000 of these things in a short amount of time, they could mine 1 MILLION DOLLARS in a month.  That is only 2000 of these products.  If they did way more.. they could definitely make enough to issue refunds and keep the doors open.  Then additionally, you think if they have jalapenos ready for shipment, and no queue, that people wouldn't order?  Sorry, people would much rather pay $300 for a 5GH/s miner form a supposed "horrible company" than pay $4000 for 5GH/s worth of USB miners @ 300MH/s each from a supposed "good" company.

Seriously, I would bet my house on these two points.  This is all very similar to the whole Electronic Arts arguments EVERY time they screw over their customer base. " Sniff Sniff Cry Cry... Everyone.. let's BAND TOGETHER and choose to NEVER buy an EA product until they get their act together".  The next version of that game comes out and it does RECORD SALES.  People have said the same thing about Call of Duty OVER and OVER and OVER again.  Before it comes out, TONS of threads to BOYCOTT BOYCOTT BOYCOTT!!  Then when the game comes out, tons of threads on "I'll never buy Activision games, or I'll be passing up on the next Call of Duty cause Activision are liars and cheats and a horrible company"  and they even go as far as to start a stupid petition (like that EVER does anything) but then the next Call of Duty comes out.  RECORD SALES and the same people who were screaming to boycott are back on the forums again saying they bought the game and this time we need to boycott the next Call of Duty.. AGAIN.  Rinse and repeat while Activision laughs all the way to the bank.

Oh man.. you really do have a comprehension problem don't you.  Once again you don't read the posts you respond to, and your responses are circumnavigating the actual topic.  Let me deconstruct your BS.


No.. everything you buy is not an investment.  Maybe you need to scroll up to the DEFINITION YOU QUOTED.  If I buy a Apple Ipad, Sony Receiver, banana, I am not investing anything.  I am consuming. 

Then you go on to talking about Chevy/GM which is a publically traded company and in true wrenchmonkey fashion, you are comparing apples to oranges. 


Once again, even though it goes through one ear and out the other.. You buying a product is not an investment.  You bought a product to use.  If you use the product to make money for a construction company, that purchase of bulldozers is an investment into YOUR company, not caterpillar.


No, everything you buy is not an investment.. once again.  Just saying it over and over again so maybe you get it one day.  I also said nothing about Amazon, don't know where that came from.  You also failed to read once again, the billy bass comment was regarding an investment of a rare item, that can be saved and resold.  As I had mentioned in my comments, it wasn't comparing to BFL, as I had SPECIFICALLY said it was comparing apples to oranges as well.  Guess you didn't READ that part.


Nope.. it is actually THE subject.  The amount of time it takes for them to ship the other types of devices and how every 2 weeks that goes by the difficulty rises and will do so even more if thousands of Jalapenos are in the market.  I never said my figures WERE fact.. I even said "this is speculation" several times in this thread.  But you don't read, and cherry pick comments to try and look bright. 

But the POINT of the speculation is that the sooner they ship the more those people will make.  You have been dodging that point ALL THREAD... until you finally gave up in your quote below


First off.. I'm glad you finally come around to contradicting yourself.. your argument is unraveling.  You also use the word "exponential".  I never said it was exponential.  Do you know what that word means?  I never mentioned that word at all, but you like to twist words so your argument seems valid.  Nice try 


Actually, it does for a company who has no product.  You have absolutely no argument for the fact that early investors gambled on them even being legit and having a product.  It makes us an investor exactly like kickstarter does.  It's not a typical investor relationship, but is an investment.  Into a company and into our own hopes.


Yes, it does.  At the time I ordered, they didn't even have a 3d model or drawing on a napkin of the product.  When you pay in bitcoins, for a product that hasn't been engineered, you run a definite risk of never seeing your money back.  The problem with your comments is everything is black and white for you, but not everything in life is black or white.  This situation is very much in the grey area of investments.


In the US, we have a policy called "first in first out" rule.  What you think is "right" and what I think is "right" is purely subjective.  I have jalapenos on order.  If they keep shipping, I will certainly get my jalapenos before SEVERAL people get their SC, and minirigs.  If they keep shipping jalapenos, I will get at least 10GH/s VERY soon.  So no, if they started making the other products, one SC will take up 16 of those chips that could have made 8 separate Jalapenos and I would end up getting my hashing power later.  Nice try attempting to call me out on that but you should actually think before you speak.  If you would have read my several posts in this thread you would have been able to use your brain before you spoke and realize this model would actually be better for me.


money is not a problem for BFL shipping out faster.  It is about getting the parts faster which means they have to finalize all of the other products AND get a whole lot more chips, boards, and cases in.

So let me get this straight..

A guy who has invested in all other mining projects BESIDES BFL is leading a movement for BFL people to cancel preorders? 

First.. This whole idea of a refund tsunami is a little too late.  They are shipping.. k9quaint says there are now BFL posts on the front page complaining about not getting product.  Maybe you didn't actually read the posts but 3 out of 4 of them currently are regarding PRODUCTS RECEIVED.  The 1/4 is the "BFL fucks us over again" thread.  Yeah, that thread is going to be great sandwiched in between "I GOT MY JALAPENO!!" and "I'M GETTING 5.6GH/s ON THIS 240$ DEVICE!!!"  Sorry to all of you BFL naysayers but even if they are JUST shipping Jalapenos right now.. they are SHIPPING. The more people that receive them the more this Custom Hardware forum is going to be flooded with "JALAPENO NUMBERS/JALAPENO POWER NUMBERS/JALAPENO OVERCLOCKING/MY JALAPENO IS AWESOME!/ETC".  Game over.. this has probably given them such a huge boost in preorders coming in for all products that they could refund everyone from June-Dec and still not have to cut any staff.

Second.. Nice try attempting to get people to cancel their devices so they won't cut into your mining profits, but it won't work.  Do you REALLY think that people who are now sitting at 10 months of waiting are going to only NOW ask for a refund?  Now that they are shipping?  Now that there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and no.. it's not a train coming at us.  It's now getting to be a little more than obvious that BFL is not going anywhere.    People who invested like I did in the earlier days and have been patient are not going to all of a sudden, lose that patience.  What, am I going to get my 1K back from BFL and buy.. 3 USB miners?  Throw away my possibility of 40GH/s for 900MH/s?  I'd rather have a coinflip chance to get 40GH/s this month or next than have 3 USB miners hashing at 900MH/s total next week

Third, are you really crying about threads about crying?  Someone should revoke your internet privileges. 

in·vest·ment 

/inˈves(t)mənt/

Noun

1.The action or process of investing money for profit or material result.
2.A thing that is worth buying because it may be profitable or useful in the future.
 

You still have problems comprehending the one fact that these devices are NOTHING like a typical consumer product.  You just don't read or comprehend things well.  These devices ARE an investment because you buy them and they make you money.  Let's put that in perspective so you can understand it.  I'll use the singing fish you love so much.  If I were to go buy a LIMITED EDITION.. only 200 made.. singing fish (let's call him by his name.. Billy Bass).. and you held on to it in its packaging hoping and hopefully after some research.. knowing.. that this thing would increase in price due to its rarity.  If you were buying it to then sell at a later date, it would be an investment... for you.  For a company to care who got #1 billy bass or #200 billy bass is of no concern to them though.  In this situation however, if 200 of them are identical, the difference in price, shipping time, and profitability would not be very different from 1 to 200.  In BFL's case, the amount of time that passes clearly determines how much this investment will pay back.  We are talking about a couple thousand for someone like me, and worse, several 10's of thousands for those who invested a couple of grand.  And for those that actually put in at the beginning, 1K, 2K, 3K, 10K.. those people basically "financially backed" this company when they needed money the most.  You would think with the high risk they had to endure, and the longest wait time (something a April 2013 customer would not understand), that the people who put in first would get the most back on their investment.  If they don't ship their big chip items soon, these jalapenos in the wild are going to seriously affect how much their other clients make.  Once again let me reiterate that these clients are the ones from the beginning.  These are the ones that put some serious money into a company's dream at the time.  If they were April orders, then of course they wouldn't care as much when shipments of one type are going out.  April orders are going to have to wait for a WHILE to get their product.  A person who ordered in June/July could have been receiving their product next week if they had all the working parts in.

And yeah, BFL cannot win right now.. you just said it.  So might as well do the "right" thing over the one that makes them money faster.  Lets be honest... as 100's of people open their Jalapenos and put their reviews up on forums, or videos on youtube, people are going to be putting massive amount back into ordering Butterfly labs.. even if they don't deliver Singles or Mini rigs by then. 

..I guess there is always the possibility that they are not doing well financially.  So many people have said but that is all speculation.  But IF they are not doing well.. I would much rather them get 1000's of jalapenos out if the alternative was them shutting down the doors.

If I had the opportunity I would take 8 Jalapenos for my 40GH/s ordered if it meant I could get my order this month vs next month, or even further out. Some people with 250+GH/s orders.. they would have to manage 50+ Jalapeno devices.  Even though people want their GH asap, I doubt the big orders would put up with having to manage that many devices.

Please tell us what is going on here oh mighty rustytrombone

..but who are you to label someone or something greed or greedy?  It is a basic request for a company to honor their original plans.  For someone like me that has a little single and a couple of Jalapenos on order, I could have kept a big order of all Jalapenos if I would have known they were shipping sooner and had their own power bricks now.  IF they get to me a month earlier I could have a couple of thousand more than I would have had.  It's pretty simple, and certainly not greed.  If you think it is greed that means this amount of money is excess for you and beyond what you need to live comfortably.  For me, this money is about paying for my first child (due in September).. about being able to pay off debt from Dr bills after being diagnosed with MS last year (Specialist visits, hospital stays, MRI after MRI, infusions, etc., from bills for a dead dog... for bills when the sewage backed up into my home from a busted pipe under my lawn.. from the engine replacement that cost me about 5K.  Having excess?  Not quite.  Try "getting back to having a savings account where I was last year at this time". 

But to be honest, these people who are not getting their first week Singles are seeing hundreds of Jalapenos ready to be shipped out in a picture today.  That just doesn't sit well with most people who made a "investment" that was delayed MULTIPLE times.  Everyone is on edge.  And this is not like a regular product.  I've said this time after time, but the more hashing power on the network and the more time passes, the less people make.  So for people who ordered say 3 singles (180 GH/s).. might be ok with receiving 90 jalapenos.  Anything to get that hashing power, and if they got it one month early, it could mean the difference of 20K just this month alone.  That's no chump change, and for a person that made a ~$4000 high risk investment, would be nice if they received their shipments in the same order as everyone who ordered.

As Paladin69 said though.. they have only shipped out first month orders.  I think the complaining is going to get worse, and more justified if several months of preorders are going out for Jalapenos and LS, SC orders are still not shipping.  I've said it before and will say it again, only time will tell.  I hope it is kind for all of us.

damn dude.. you really are "out there".  You can't just "say something" and it be fact.  No, if you have a jalapeno order, it would be in YOUR best interest for them to finish their line of jalapeno order shipments. 

Facts:
This means you would get your jalapeno (even being an April order), before ANY single, little single, or minirig orders are fulfilled.  This means that you would be mining on devices before 100's of terahash are in the wild due to BFL shipping out their other products.


No, that actually isn't obvious.  Just the opposite on several statements. 

From the beginning they planned on releasing ALL products at the same time.  In fact, if they even ONCE said that they would be shipping out Jalapeno's first, someone like me would have kept my order of 5 jalapenos instead of upgrading my order to 1 little single (when the little single announcement was made).  In fact I didn't want 6 Jalapenos because back then we thought it would require USB power which meant running 6 jalapenos on one USB hub would be a pain.  Now that I know that the Jalapenos not only have their own power brick, but are shipping NOW.. I'd say I would have made different decisions back then. 

Furthermore, provide some sort of proof that 90% of their pre orders are Jalapenos.  Especially after allowing Jalapeno orders to be upgraded to the $699 little singles, 90% is not a correct number.  Also, just because Jalapenos are easier to make, they aren't THAT much easier.  Also, why are you listing only those two "facts" as your arguing points.  You are ignoring the fact that the Jalapenos are the ONLY ONES EVEN READY TO MAKE.  In the past month they have not HAD the boards for the LS, Singles, and minirigs.  You can't assemble and ship something that don't have parts ready.  This isn't rocket science.

trust me.. if I had the money to buy into anything else at this point I would.  ASICs are super pricey and I've already woken up to that fact.  I can't afford asic miner equipment but they certainly demand the price.  Unfortunately I've put all my eggs in one basket.  IF I receive my product I'm 100% sure I'll make some money off of it (seeing that I have nothing truly invested.. making 10$ would be considered profit to me).   I assume that IF I receive my devices, the difficulty has to hit the 600 million range to be not worth it to me.  That is making ~100-125$ @ 40GH/s and 120$ bitcoins.  Let's not forget that by the time the difficulty is up to 600 million, we may see a significant rise in bitcoin prices.  If I get my device at the 50 million difficulty mark, I will still be making ~850$ a month.  If I save 4 bitcoins a month and after 6 months the difficulty is at 500 million, but bitcoins are 300$ a bitcoin, I will have saved 7200$ in bitcoins and will be making ~$366 a month.  That is only ~1.15 bitcoins a month @ 40GH/s @ 500 million difficulty @ $300 bitcoins.  For me, nothing to scoff at and of course it is purely speculation.  Take it for what it is worth, but we have a lot of variables that determine the profitability of different mining devices.  Hopefully the stars align for most of us (adopters of BFL, asicminer, Avalon, bitcoin horders, etc..)


The only thing that could happen is BFL just picks up and disappears with all of our money.  Time will tell but I'm still leaning on them staying in the business.  If not.. oh well.  Maybe I'll score it big on something else.  If I was a huge investor, or sunk ANY money into this I was not already writing off as lost, I would have a totally different outlook.  Might as well have spent my bitcoins at the bicoin casino if that was the case.   

This is a pretty ignorant comment..  The jump really has nothing to do with the current ~30 jalapenos in the wild.  You also think a 21-30 million difficulty will make that many people question the refund?  

I am currently mining on a couple of video cards in my house that equal about 1.3GH/s.  I can still make 125$ a month and that is including the 25$ or so that I use in energy.  

I'm more of a practical thinker when it comes to ROI.  If the difficulty triples buy the time I get my devices (about 40GH/s of equipment) I will still be getting ~830$ a month @ 95 million difficulty.  That is pretty much paying for all of my initial investment. (probably 5 week ROI).  In the investment world, an ROI of 5 weeks is ridiculous.  Even if it takes 3-4 months to hit my ROI, I would be pleased with that.  My video cards organically funded my initial investment though so technically anything I make is already gravy.

..don't get me wrong.. I would LOVE to receive my stuff asap so I can get in on this "under 50 million" difficulty.  I personally think Butterfly labs WILL ship my stuff. It's not the how, who, and what.. it's the WHEN that determines if I make a couple of grand.. or make 10-20 grand.  No matter how much Butterfly labs messes up and shows its mismanagement, I still think they have every intention of fulfilling their orders and staying in the business for the long haul.  That's about all I can say right now though.

I TOTALLY get it now.  You have late April Jalapeno orders.  So obviously you would rather see all the jalapenos get fulfilled before the other devices.  Yeah, your opinion is not biased at ALL.